Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Bordonaro:

Blog police casters have a habit of telling people how to act on the blog.

I admit, there are several occasions where I put my .02 in, instead of just being quiet!


I beg to differ, Blog Police suggest how others should act on the blog, Blog police casters predict that someone is going to do it. That made about as much sense as a flash flood in a fizzy factory.
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424. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Thats the monthly test of the backup systems, verifies that HPC can issue forecasts if a problem happens with NHC where they could not issue forecasts.


Didn't know that...thanks.

12Z ECMWF through July 24th...zilch.
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Quoting lilElla:
This must really be something when Dr Forbes steps in. Right now our heat index is 99, dew point 74, and temp 90. Skies are partly cloudy and lots of haze with a SE wind. Storms are now showing on the Milwaukee radar.


Ahh, you can walk outside and feel the energy.

Anyone from the central Gulf Coast region who can comment on if you are having brisk breezes today off the Gulf? I've noticed in watching some tornado outbreaks in OK that here in Houston we typically have a strong south breeze, feeding the moisture up to the north.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

FLZ041-141-141915-COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-239 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.

AT 231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING 6 MILES NORTH OF LAKE ASHBY...ALONG STATE ROUTE 44...DRIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE HELEN.

GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 45 MPH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. LAT...LON 2894 8123 2914 8118 2908 8102 2890 8109 TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 321DEG 2KT 2901 8112

Darn and I want to deliver something to Daytona on my motorcycle...
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421. Skyepony (Mod)
Jedkins~ The 1st half of this week has been a slow return to moisture from the dry you mentioned. Moisture rolled in on the surface quick enough but I think getting it through all layers added with the heat aloft has delayed my downpour. The other day up in Viera it finally saturated a column & poured huge drops. I drove out of it south, once it got to Melbourne it was like the day before..sprinkling but obviously raining harder aloft being sucked out by a mid level dry hole. Today the inverted trough is coming across SFL. It should help.
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This must really be something when Dr Forbes steps in. Right now our heat index is 99, dew point 74, and temp 90. Skies are partly cloudy and lots of haze with a SE wind. Storms are now showing on the Milwaukee radar.
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To post 411:

Is there forced subsidence? Are you guys frequently on the E side of an upper ridge or W side of an upper trough latetly?
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Quoting Bordonaro:

I remember his forecast center picture, an old wooden outhouse.

The Weather Channel is part of a for profit company, we all understand that. However, there is a balance they need to find it.


They were always a for-profit of some kind. The difference is now they are probably just a money-maker to a large company, vs something small enough to care about their product.
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416. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL STORM CONSON (T1002)
3:00 AM JST July 15 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In The South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Conson (992 hPa) located at 16.4N 116.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.2N 113.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.8N 110.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 21.3N 109.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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Quoting Patrap:
Im still 5',8" 190


That's the reason I won't put someone like you on ignore.

Always there to pass on that vital information...
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL, so many different types of casters:

1. Wishcaster
2. Downcaster
3. Now, police caster? What does that one mean.


Nothing, someone wanted to be a castercaster and cast out casters of all types.
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Quoting IKE:
Is the NHC now on vacation or having a dart tournament?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
200 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MUSHER



Thats the monthly test of the backup systems, verifies that HPC can issue forecasts if a problem happens with NHC where they could not issue forecasts.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


that is why we are so lucky here to have exclusive rights to STORMTOP advisories!

I remember his forecast center picture, an old wooden outhouse.

The Weather Channel is part of a for profit company, we all understand that. However, there is a balance they need to find it.
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Despite PW's between 2.1 and 2.4 inches last few days, thunderstorm coverage has continued to be really lame across central and south Florida.


After the 2 week very wet period between late June and early July that gave us over 10 inches of rain, this very wet pattern was replaced by a disturbingly dry air mass last week.

Oddly enough however, despite very deep moisture with PW's well over 2.0 inches moving back in 3 or 4 days ago, thunderstorm coverage has been only bout 20 to 30%. Which is shockingly low...

Typical daily thunderstorm chances are around 50% with an average PW at around 1.9 to 2.0 inches...

You would think with even much deeper moisture in place then that, coverage should be between 60 to 80%, but for some reason it has been 30% at best!


I can't seem to figure out why? Why does convection continue to struggle in such a moist tropical air mass?

Yes there is definitely warm air aloft and weak lapse rates, but that is common this time of year, this usually only inhibits hail and supercell formation, and normally enhances heavy rainfall. But there must be something else that is severely holding back thunderstorms around here, what this might be is puzzling me...

The local MET's keep forecasting numerous thunderstorms, so they can't seem to figure out what is wrong either...
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I'm very familiar with the site as I've been on here for over 3 years, ignoring doesn't work due to rampant quoting of people. There are some teenagers that are knowledgeable, then there are the ones that won't stop bickering.

Quoting Chicklit:
Actually, our teenagers on here are very knowledgeable and mature. It's the adults we have problems with. And even worse are the pompous ones who come on and lecture everyone on how to behave.
If you're not familiar with the site, then read "rules of the road" below. You can put as many people on ignore as you want.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL, so many different types of casters:

1. Wishcaster
2. Downcaster
3. Now, police caster? What does that one mean.

Blog police casters have a habit of telling people how to act on the blog.

I admit, there are several occasions where I put my .02 in, instead of just being quiet!
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Quoting angiest:


They interrupted regular programming on The Weather Channel to talk about weather? Wow, that is serious.

I know that is sad. The Weather Channel used to be on the ball. I understand there part of GE Capitol/NBC family, but providing accurate, concise and up to date info is crucial.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Oh, you mean the "blog-police caster". If I ever have said or done anything to offend anyone on this blog, I apologize :o)!


LOL, so many different types of casters:

1. Wishcaster
2. Downcaster
3. Now, police caster? What does that one mean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Actually, our teenagers on here are very knowledgeable and mature. It's the adults we have problems with. And even worse are the pompous ones who come on and lecture everyone on how to behave.
If you're not familiar with the site, then read "rules of the road" below. You can put as many people on ignore as you want.


I think more than a few of the long time posters could use a good "time-out"....myself included...LOL
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Quoting angiest:


They interrupted regular programming on The Weather Channel to talk about weather? Wow, that is serious.


ROFL
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We got a Julia Foxtrot Victor and a Sierra Tango Oscar Romeo Mike _ Tango Oscar Pablo alert. Setting to DEFCON 3.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24185
Quoting DestinJeff:


what the hell was I on? yeah, Foxtrot. looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.


LOL
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Quoting Chicklit:
Actually, our teenagers on here are very knowledgeable and mature. It's the adults we have problems with. And even worse are the pompous ones who come on and lecture everyone on how to behave.

Oh, you mean the "blog-police caster". If I ever have said or done anything to offend anyone on this blog, I apologize :o)!
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Be very careful, because a handful of these tornadoes may be outright dangerous.

When Dr Forbes interrupts "Storm Stories" and sounds very concerned, it is time to be very concerned.


They interrupted regular programming on The Weather Channel to talk about weather? Wow, that is serious.
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my numbers are 17-9-4,w/our first major sometime between july 25-august 7th....
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Quoting IKE:


That's who I'm thinking it is. Writing style is the same.



......and back this year with half a dozen new screen names.......wonderful.
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394. IKE
Quoting pipelines:
I know there are a lot of children on this board, but please, when in the presence of adults (and this is an adult blog) try to put on your best behavior. You all wouldn't act like this in the presence of your parents friends or at an adult gathering.

Why is there so much bickering over someones opinion? If someone thinks it's is going to be a slow season, that's their right to think that. If you're so offended that someone could "even think" that this season is going to be slow that you have to freak out and start senselessly bickering about it, maybe you need to do a little introspection on your own opinions and wonder why you want this season to be so active/destructive.

If you have nothing constructive to add, shut your mouth, or should I say, refrain from typing.


That is so true.
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Quoting lilElla:
#367 Thank you for the update! It looks like we will be under the gun about the time I'm heading home from work. Looks like storms are just starting to pop in SE MN. Really appreciate the non-tropical discussion & maps today. I want to go home and chase storms!

Be very careful, because a handful of these tornadoes may be outright dangerous.

When Dr Forbes interrupts "Storm Stories" and sounds very concerned, it is time to be very concerned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Actually, our teenagers on here are very knowledgeable and mature. It's the adults we have problems with. And even worse are the pompous ones who come on and lecture everyone on how to behave.
If you're not familiar with the site, then read "rules of the road" below. You can put as many people on ignore as you want.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Nobody wants to talk about CV waves right now because everyone's been so badly burnt thus far. They start with such promise and then... more drama...and then nothing...drama...nothing...ad infinitum.
You know, like having a relationship LOL.


LOL, lots of tropical waves do this. Latetly, its because of the SAL. They wrap in the SAL to their north, and poof, its gone. That may happen with this latest wave, plus the spin is over 25/26 C water. This wave needs to keep fighting off the SAL and move W into warmer waters before having the chance to develop. The SAL pocket NW of the wave could kill this one too though if the cyclonic spin with it wraps the pocket in.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

MN had a bad tornado outbreak recently, with over 20 tornadoes, and he is concerned there may be a similar outbreak.


I remember that, it was a day that should have been high risk and one or more PDS watches. As I recall, I some of those on live streams. I also listened to internet broadcasts of a local police dept that was heavily impacted by the storms. The poor dispatcher was sure sounding tired.
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Despite PW's between 2.1 and 2.4 inches last few days, thunderstorm coverage has continued to be really lame across central and south Florida.


After the 2 week very wet period between late June and early July that gave us over 10 inches of rain, this very wet pattern was replaced by a disturbingly dry air mass last week.

Oddly enough however, despite very deep moisture with PW's well over 2.0 inches moving back in 3 or 4 days ago, thunderstorm coverage has been only bout 20 to 30%. Which is shockingly low...

Typical daily thunderstorm chances are around 50% with an average PW at around 1.9 to 2.0 inches...

You would think with even much deeper moisture in place then that, coverage should be between 60 to 80%, but for some reason it has been 30% at best!


I can't seem to figure out why? Why does convection continue to struggle in such a moist tropical air mass?

Yes there is definitely warm air aloft and weak lapse rates, but that is common this time of year, this usually only inhibits hail and supercell formation, and normally enhances heavy rainfall. But there must be something else that is severely holding back thunderstorms around here, what this might be is puzzling me...

The local MET's keep forecasting numerous thunderstorms, so they can't seem to figure out what is wrong either...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know there are a lot of children on this board, but please, when in the presence of adults (and this is an adult blog) try to put on your best behavior. You all wouldn't act like this in the presence of your parents friends or at an adult gathering.

Why is there so much bickering over someones opinion? If someone thinks it's is going to be a slow season, that's their right to think that. If you're so offended that someone could "even think" that this season is going to be slow that you have to freak out and start senselessly bickering about it, maybe you need to do a little introspection on your own opinions and wonder why you want this season to be so active/destructive.

If you have nothing constructive to add, shut your mouth, or should I say, refrain from typing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
#367 Thank you for the update! It looks like we will be under the gun about the time I'm heading home from work. Looks like storms are just starting to pop in SE MN. Really appreciate the non-tropical discussion & maps today. I want to go home and chase storms!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Nobody wants to talk about CV waves right now because everyone's been so badly burnt thus far. They start with such promise and then... more drama...and then nothing...drama...nothing...ad infinitum.
You know, like having a relationship LOL.

I understand, we need a big koombiya session!
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Quoting angiest:


Geez. Dr. Forbes isn't really a hype-r (the people around him may be). An 8, and no high risk or PDS watches?

MN had a bad tornado outbreak recently, with over 20 tornadoes, and he is concerned there may be a similar outbreak.
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Nobody wants to talk about CV waves right now because everyone's been so badly burnt thus far. They start with such promise and then... more drama...and then nothing...drama...nothing...ad infinitum.
You know, like having a relationship LOL.
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Wu-cryptology casting ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
Quoting DestinJeff:
Joker Echo Victor. can you confirm?


You mean Foxtrot don't you?
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381. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Would have been under one of last year's aliases.....stormkat, stormtop, stormyeyes, etc.....


That's who I'm thinking it is. Writing style is the same.
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Tor Con Index is now 8 out 10 in SE MN and SW WI.

Watch out Upper Midwest. The dewpoints are approaching 80F and Dr Forbes is on The Weather Channel, he is expecting explosive development mid to late afternoon in that area.


Geez. Dr. Forbes isn't really a hype-r (the people around him may be). An 8, and no high risk or PDS watches?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Primadonnagirl you claim that you said last year last season would be weak---where did you say it? Just wondering.


Would have been under one of last year's aliases.....stormkat, stormtop, stormyeyes, etc.....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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