Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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What about castercaster?
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I'll also stay with my preseason forecast 14-10-5
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Quoting DestinJeff:


earlier in the day there was a suggestion for the name of someone that posts comments to bait others to cast ...


sort of like we cable subscribers.....comcasters...
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NOGAPS storm?






Higher Resolution
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To post 448:

Thank you, I've been waiting for someone to make that point.

To post 456:

ROFL!
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Screenshot of severe weather, approaching my town Mainz in Germany, about one hour ago. Nice show! And temperatures are down now. Much relief.
Moreover there is a fire to be seen. As much as I can find out until now, fortunately it's just garbage in the area of a company.
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If I was a psychic with an all-women client base, would I be a broadcaster??

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Quoting DestinJeff:
My seasonal activity numbers are [TS/Hurricane/Major]

1, 1, 0. *

Unlike others, I will update my forecast after each named system.


...you must be related to Dr. Gray
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


That's as good an explanation for why the thunderstorms are persisting over Lake Superior as any.


However, that complex has moved out of the area of instability (or is doing so) and so they should start to weaken anyway.
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Quoting 2ndGenHunter:


Any one want to volunteer for the position of caster rater?

brilliant!
p.s. I have a sharp shear.
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460. IKE
If I SAL for you, will you SAL for me?

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Quoting 2ndGenHunter:


Any one want to volunteer for the position of caster rater?


haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


Nothing, someone wanted to be a castercaster and cast out casters of all types.


Any one want to volunteer for the position of caster rater?
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I'm sticking with my forecast 20-22 Named Storms, 9-11 hurricanes, and 5-7 major hurricanes.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
Quoting DestinJeff:


When I studied abroad in France they had Caster of Paris.
So did Leo Fender and Freddie Tavares.
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Quoting angiest:


And who is the master stratocaster?


Laaayylaa, you got me on my kees...
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Quoting Skyepony:
Jedkins~ The 1st half of this week has been a slow return to moisture from the dry you mentioned. Moisture rolled in on the surface quick enough but I think getting it through all layers added with the heat aloft has delayed my downpour. The other day up in Viera it finally saturated a column & poured huge drops. I drove out of it south, once it got to Melbourne it was like the day before..sprinkling but obviously raining harder aloft being sucked out by a mid level dry hole. Today the inverted trough is coming across SFL. It should help.


Check out this Hovmoller Diagram:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/gehov2latest.gif

The origins of the inverted surface trough moving into S FL today have been interesting. On July 12, you can see storm clusters over the Bahamas, which I analyzed on this day to be due to upper air divergence as the flow branched between a deep-layered ridge to the NW and upper trough to the NE.

It seems a weak surface trough formed from this activity, and is heading westward toward S Florida today while steered by the deep-layered ridge. You can faintly trace this on the Hovmoller diagram.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well I checked a buoy, and the water temp is a bit higher than I expected it to be, been mostly in the low 60s in the west part of the lake.

And 50s further east.

Link

Link

Quite a bit cooler than the land ares though. And thunderstorms are heat engines too, just smaller and a different kind.


But these thunderstorms draw their energy from the airmass. Right above the surface of the lake it may be a little cooler, but overall the energy in the atmosphere probably doesn't vary that much.
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For the downcasters and those calling this season a bust, please allow me to hearten you by reposting something I wrote ealier:

1998: No June storms and one July storm, but seven September storms.
2000: No June storms and no July storms, but seven September storms.
2002: No June storms and one July storm, but eight September storms.
2004: No June storms and one July storm, but seven August storms.
2007: One June storm and one July storm, but eight September storms.

Again, early numbers are not very exact for predicting later or overall numbers. July 1995 saw four storms, while that September there were only three, and 1997 had three July storms, but only one in September. And lest you forget about 2005's crazy overall numbers, remember that both 1995 and 2004 saw more August storms than 2005, 2003 saw more December storms than 2005, and 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2007 all saw more September storms than 2005.

I'll stick with my 20 / 12 / 6 in spite of the less-than-recordbreaking early returns. A bit 'optimistic', yes, but that's how this experienced Floridian sees things.
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Quoting angiest:


Well, they aren't tropical in nature, and I believe the SST anomaly maps actually show the Great Lakes relatively warmer than normal.


Those MCCs tend to persist overnight, I suspect the lake is analogous to a "short" night?
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443. Skyepony (Mod)
Chicklit~ That inverted trough has really upped the water spout odds in ECFL today..oh I hope i get rain..

DestinJeff~ shouldn't you be crediting NOAA?
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Quoting lilElla:
This must really be something when Dr Forbes steps in. Right now our heat index is 99, dew point 74, and temp 90. Skies are partly cloudy and lots of haze with a SE wind. Storms are now showing on the Milwaukee radar.


There is a potent upper level impulse moving towards you from the Dakotas.

The dew point in Rapid City, SD is 39F, in Minneapolis, MN is 74F.

There is a cap in the mid-levels over SE MN and SW WI. Daytime heating will erode the cap between now and 5PM today.

The Low Level Jet is pumping in Gulf of Mexico moisture from the SE US. The Polar Jet Stream is pushing cooler, drier in from the NW portions of Canada.

The "triple point" is close by, the intersection of the warm, moist Gulf air and the cool, dry air and the Low center itself.

Many of the ingredients are in place for explosive Severe Thunderstorms development.

On a scale of 1 to 10, one being little severe threat & ten the highest threat, I'd rate this as a 7.5.

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Quoting StormSurgeon:


I think more than a few of the long time posters could use a good "time-out"....myself included...LOL

Wasn't referring to you, SS. I think this JFV character is an adult, technically speaking, for example. Was just defending the kids and the blog. Sometimes my defense appears to be offense. Very sorry to offend.
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Quoting angiest:


And who is the master stratocaster?

Jimmi Hendricks?
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Quoting hcubed:
So many "casters".

The best "caster" is a Stratocaster.

Trufax.


And who is the master stratocaster?
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Quoting angiest:


Ahh, you can walk outside and feel the energy.

Anyone from the central Gulf Coast region who can comment on if you are having brisk breezes today off the Gulf? I've noticed in watching some tornado outbreaks in OK that here in Houston we typically have a strong south breeze, feeding the moisture up to the north.


Mobile, AL......winds from south at 10mph.....heat index 104.....I'm staying inside.
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432. IKE
Here's the eastern Atlantic view on the latest ECMWF model run...Link
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So many "casters".

The best "caster" is a Stratocaster.

Trufax.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Mildly surprised that the severe thunderstorms are holding together as well as they are over the cool waters of Lake Superior.


Well, they aren't tropical in nature, and I believe the SST anomaly maps actually show the Great Lakes relatively warmer than normal.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is a proprietary graphic I discovered. It shows the typical pattern of activity of a typical season.

This graph is not widely available, but I have connections and was granted license to post it here:


Image Credit: jamtrav.com


Thanks! I've *never* seen that before!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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