Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting lilElla:
Thanks Angiest & Bordo. This evening could be very interesting. Spotters in this area are already 'on call'. If the storms are anything like the ones in N MN last night, all most all of them were rotating and HUGE hail.

Randolph, MN has reported tornado damage just now on TWC.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


I wonder if they will have an overnight low of 80 there.

The great heatwave of 1936 in Minneapolis---the lows

July 7 80
July 8 82
July 9 82
July 10 80
July 11 82
July 12 83
July 13 86

Probably not, a cold front is expected to move through their region later tonight.

We are used to high heat indices in TX, like Btwn08 & I, but MN!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
524. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
In 2005, 20 named storms occured between August and November. I do not see why we could not come close to those totals.


I'll go back and see if it's ever happened, I'm so bored.
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Quoting lilElla:
"The Lake does not always have a strong influence on the weather"

But come winter we wait for that lovely influence and the LAKE SNOW she can bring! :):):)


Lovely??? Such a word does not belong in that sentence :)

I question my sanity for those five, snowy, long, dark, snowy, months. I should mention dark and long again, just for more emphasis.

And then savor the warm(er) seven months that make living here so very much worth it.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


Looks like a nice bow echo forming there.
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In 2005, 20 named storms occured between August and November. I do not see why we could not come close to those totals.
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Thanks Angiest & Bordo. This evening could be very interesting. Spotters in this area are already 'on call'. If the storms are anything like the ones in N MN last night, all most all of them were rotating and HUGE hail.
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listarray = Websters

while i = 1 and blogsanity = TRUE
i = 1
say "(random(listarray) caster"
endwhile

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516. IKE
Quoting SLU:


Like them, I see no reason why the numbers should be lowered.


I think their numbers are too high if July blanks at zero. Exclude 2005, in the last 20 years the top number of forming storms in August through the end of the season is 15. Add 15 to 1 equals 16.

As far as the UKMET at 27 and NOAA at 23...nope...ain't happening.
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Interesting - any idea on its strength?


30kt TD

EP 06 2010071418 BEST 0 147N 1067W 30 1006 TD
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Quoting angiest:


You can cut through that air with a knife.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
07/14/2010 07:22PM 2,706 invest_RENUMBER_ep962010_ep062010.ren


Interesting - any idea on its strength?
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Wow, the dew point Minneapolis, MN is 79F at 2 PM CDT, with a heat index of 105F!!


You can cut through that air with a knife.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
07/14/2010 07:22PM 2,706 invest_RENUMBER_ep962010_ep062010.ren


TD-6E, not surprising.
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Quoting StormW:


Again, I'll add to that. Email between Dr. Klotzbach and myself from earlier today, July 14, 2010:

Dr. Klotzbach,
We met at the 2010 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. My tag said Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast Center. I was curious to know, do you have any intention on lowering your storm totals in the August update, based on the lack of activity so far this month? I'm keeping mine the same based on what you and I discussed at the conference. I still think the numbers will be met.

Thanks in advance,

T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

Dr. Klotzbach's reply:


From:
"Phil Klotzbach"
Add sender to Contacts
To:
"thomas walsh"
Dear Tom,

At this point, large-scale climate conditions look very favorable for an active season. June-July activity is typically very low, and consequently, we aren't surprised that we haven't had that much activity so far. An average season doesn't get its second named storm until August 1 and its first hurricane until August 10, so we are still ahead of the average season (and will be for several more weeks), even if nothing more happens.

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D.
Research Scientist
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu


I am sure the season will turn wicked soon enough.
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Wow, the dew point Minneapolis, MN is 79F at 2 PM CDT, with a heat index of 105F!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
506. SLU
Quoting StormW:


Again, I'll add to that. Email between Dr. Klotzbach and myself:

Dr. Klotzbach,
We met at the 2010 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. My tag said Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast Center. I was curious to know, do you have any intention on lowering you storm totals in the August update, based on the lack of activity so far this month? I'm keeping mine the same based on what you and I discussed at the conference. I still think the numbers will be met.

Thanks in advance,

T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

Dr. Klotzbach's reply:


From:
"Phil Klotzbach"
Add sender to Contacts
To:
"thomas walsh"
Dear Tom,

At this point, large-scale climate conditions look very favorable for an active season. June-July activity is typically very low, and consequently, we aren't surprised that we haven't had that much activity so far. An average season doesn't get its second named storm until August 1 and its first hurricane until August 10, so we are still ahead of the average season (and will be for several more weeks), even if nothing more happens.

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D.
Research Scientist
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu


Like them, I see no reason why the numbers should be lowered.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4834
"The Lake does not always have a strong influence on the weather"

But come winter we wait for that lovely influence and the LAKE SNOW she can bring! :):):)
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498 beat me to it. ;P
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07/14/2010 07:22PM 2,706 invest_RENUMBER_ep962010_ep062010.ren
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499. SLU
Quoting Neapolitan:
For the downcasters and those calling this season a bust, please allow me to hearten you by reposting something I wrote ealier:

1998: No June storms and one July storm, but seven September storms.
2000: No June storms and no July storms, but seven September storms.
2002: No June storms and one July storm, but eight September storms.
2004: No June storms and one July storm, but seven August storms.
2007: One June storm and one July storm, but eight September storms.

Again, early numbers are not very exact for predicting later or overall numbers. July 1995 saw four storms, while that September there were only three, and 1997 had three July storms, but only one in September. And lest you forget about 2005's crazy overall numbers, remember that both 1995 and 2004 saw more August storms than 2005, 2003 saw more December storms than 2005, and 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2007 all saw more September storms than 2005.

I'll stick with my 20 / 12 / 6 in spite of the less-than-recordbreaking early returns. A bit 'optimistic', yes, but that's how this experienced Floridian sees things.


Excellent stuff .. a very informed perspective. Keep it up! The downcasters have been in full force over the last few days.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4834


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MN TROUGH N-CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141926Z - 142100Z

WW 472 HAS BEEN EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH INTO REMAINDER OF S-CNTRL MN
TO ACCOUNT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A NEW WW MIGHT
BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF N-CNTRL IA BEFORE 21Z.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WAS LOCATED ACROSS
S-CNTRL MN INTO NWRN IA. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CUMULUS...AND STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED...LIKELY SURFACE
BASED WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
SERN MN. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND DEEPER
ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MAY
WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD INTO PARTS OF NRN IA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME WHICH WILL
REDUCE HODOGRAPH SIZE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY /4000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE/ AND 40-45 KT BULK
SHEAR...INITIAL THREAT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES.


..DIAL.. 07/14/2010


ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON 43169432 43989380 43959310 42869302 42379363 42379474
43169432

Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting DestinJeff:
My seasonal activity numbers are [TS/Hurricane/Major]

1, 1, 0. *

Unlike others, I will update my forecast after each named system.


Ah, that would make you a "retrocaster" - someone with the ability to look back at storms that have happened in the past and predict their intensity and track with at least a 99% accuracy rate!
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496. IKE
I went back and looked at the last 20 years...from 1990 to 2009...number of named storms forming on August 1st or later....because I think July 2010 is a blank through July 24th and maybe the rest of July.

The only year that had over 15 was 2005, which was probably a once in a lifetime season.

The average for below is 10 storms per year forming on August 1st or later.

Exclude the 1990's and the average is 12.8 per season.

1990.....11.
1991.....07.
1992.....06.
1993.....07.
1994.....06.
1995.....14.
1996.....10.
1997.....03.
1998.....13.
1999.....11.
2000.....15.
2001.....14.
2002.....11.
2003.....12.
2004.....14.
2005.....21.
2006.....07.
2007.....12.
2008.....12.
2009.....10.

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Quoting Bordonaro:

Awesome picture, hopefully things don't get too wild over in N Germany.

Thx Bordo. I've taken a little video out of my window and I'll try to get it on my blog.
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nrtiwlnvragn OMG I'M CHOCKING I'M CHOCKING WOW

AWIT LET ME LET ME SHOW SOMETHING

Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10903
Quoting angiest:


One possibility. Another would be Chuck Yeager.

Yep!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


That's as good an explanation for why the thunderstorms are persisting over Lake Superior as any.


I wasn't here when it happened, but June 17, 2006 a storm moved across western Lake Superior from MN's Arrowhead and slammed into the Bayfield Peninsula.

One storm report: Major wind damage to docks and a few boats occurred at two marinas. Many docks were destroyed. One 40 foot boat was destroyed. There was also three-quarter inch hail and some downed trees.

A second: The concession tent at the Big Top Chautauqua outdoor performance area was blown down. The main tent received hail and water damage. Shows at the tent were canceled for three days. Hail size is unknown.

Total damages were estimated at 400,000 dollars.

The Lake does not always have a strong influence on the weather.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Are you an infinite regression castercastercaster... caster caster...caster?


Lol Lol Lol Lol Lol Lol .....
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Quoting pottery:

Jimmi Hendricks?


One possibility. Another would be Chuck Yeager.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What date does NOGAPS expect that rumored disturbance in the W Caribbean?

The spin near Colombia in that ASCAT pass looks to be the typical Colombian low (don't know what causes that semi-perminant Colombian low?) Storms have been persistent north of Panama over the last 48 hours due to upper divergence over the area as the upper flow is branching between the deep-layered ridge in the Gulf of Mexico and upper low north of Haiti/Dominican Republic.


First shows up on the NCEP Cyclogenesis Tracker at 24 hours from last night's 00Z run.

TG,006, 2010071400, 03, NGX, 024, 89N, 772W, 16, 1008
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Quoting angiest:


So are you a castercaster caster?


Are you an infinite regression castercastercaster... caster caster...caster?
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The NWS discussion yesterday did not think the cap was going to erode enough for severe storms in S WI, must have changed. And yes, Lake Superior is rather chilly but I have watched T-storms travel across 50 miles of open water and intensify the entire way. The Keweenaw Pennisula in UP MI is an awesome place to watch storms coming across the Lake.
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I consider myself a Master Caster-Blaster.
But it is hard to convince others of my Self-Induced Grandeur.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NOGAPS storm?






Higher Resolution


GFS parallel 12z storm too
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NOGAPS storm?






Higher Resolution


What date does NOGAPS expect that rumored disturbance in the W Caribbean?

The spin near Colombia in that ASCAT pass looks to be the typical Colombian low (don't know what causes that semi-perminant Colombian low?) Storms have been persistent north of Panama over the last 48 hours due to upper divergence over the area as the upper flow is branching between the deep-layered ridge in the Gulf of Mexico and upper low north of Haiti/Dominican Republic.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
What about castercaster?


So are you a castercaster caster?
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2 years ago I forecast this year to be 3-11-15
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Quoting Drakoen:
I'm sticking with my forecast 20-22 Named Storms, 9-11 hurricanes, and 5-7 major hurricanes.
If you are correct with your prediction Drak, things will get busy fast, and stay that way for a while.
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Quoting barbamz:

Screenshot of severe weather, approaching my town Mainz in Germany, about one hour ago. Nice show! And temperatures are down now. Much relief.
Moreover there is a fire to be seen. As much as I can find out until now, fortunately it's just garbage in the area of a company.

Awesome picture, hopefully things don't get too wild over in N Germany.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
What about castercaster?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.