Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormW:


LMAO Bordonaro!

A little humor is good :o)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Storm... I agree and if everyone would look at the data that has been provided by many experts, they would all understand why IMHO, the nay sayers will be screaming Uncle by the middle of September. I am not an expert, just a novelist but I can read and interpret the information that is given to us. I hope to become as skilled as lot of you regulars on here one day.


New type of caster? Naysayercasters?
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You are so right, Storm. I might add you are a key figure in allowing many of us to understand the dynamics of this hurricane season. I salute you for making your interpretations easy for us laymen.
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Poor smiley is going to get a concussion.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting StormW:
Ya know, Dr. Masters and the folks that work for him are kind enough to let us use this blog.

It's ok to have an opinion, and I could care less if someone agrees with me or not. I don't even mind a good debate. But for some folks to come on here to just stir the pot, and make remarks and want to argue all the time in the face of data that states the contrary, and to provide no scientific analog, realtime, or projected conditions, is just ludicrous.


Storm... I agree and if everyone would look at the data that has been provided by many experts, they would all understand why IMHO, the nay sayers will be screaming Uncle by the middle of September. I am not an expert, just a novelist but I can read and interpret the information that is given to us. I hope to become as skilled as lot of you regulars on here one day.
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Except that if you read Dr. Master's log. Good records were not kept during World War I (1914 - 1918)... Just saying...

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616. SLU
Quoting angiest:


1914, no hurricane hunters, no satellite... hard to believe that was really the only tropical cyclone that year. It was probably a below average year but we will never know the real total.


true

But in previous years they were able to track storms in the deep tropics via ship and land observations like they did in 1899 ...

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
Quoting MississippiWx:


You're basically trying to talk to a wall there, Storm. He's not going to listen.
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Quoting StormW:


I don't think so. I don't even use analogs prior to 1995, when the upswing in activity started.


I'm just struck by the tracks of the two TCs we've had this year compared to a lot of 1933's activity.
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Just looking at SST's 2005 vs 2010. Without looking at the date tell me which one is 2005 and which one is 2010? That's how close they are. Infact, 2010's hotter.





Just by blending the two best analog seasons in the last 5 years 2005 and 2007's similar conditions to 2010 I see no reason to not have 18 named storms.
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IKE GET READY TO BE shocked

looked at all the dust
look at the strong winds
look at the empty ocean

Now why do you think this will be an active season?
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610. IKE
Quoting Dakster:


Yeah, makes you wonder sometimes. (and they don't name extra-tropical storms unless they started as a tropical storm - I fixed it on edit)

Also, we don't really have enough historical data to go by to have a good "analog year" so the best guess is still an above normal season.


I believe above average too. I'll be shocked if it's not.

Based on what I posted above IF July winds up with one, that's not that unusual. But, the top year is 1969 with 17.

I could see 18 total. That would be the highest I think it could get. I could be wrong though.

Fascinating that some years back in the 80's had totals of...6,4,6, and 7.

I know that was a slow time and this isn't.
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Quoting K8eCane:
I rememeber when hurricanes were ONLY named after women


men got mad

so they gave them men names
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


No use reasoning with hurrkat, he's the original StormTop.

Wonderful!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
I rememeber when hurricanes were ONLY named after women
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Quoting SLU:


if people are already saying this season is a bust then some bloggers here would die of rage when we get another year like this


it is a bust

im not even worry

i call this 2009 part 2 but weaker

im never wrong
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Quoting SLU:


if people are already saying this season is a bust then some bloggers here would die of rage when we get another year like this


1914, no hurricane hunters, no satellite... hard to believe that was really the only tropical cyclone that year. It was probably a below average year but we will never know the real total.
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602. xcool
BYE BYE SAL


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Trying to determine Analog years of my own. 2005 and 2007 are the only one's that are similar to 2010 in the last 5 years.

In terms of ENSO, 2007 fits good.
La Nina 2007


La Nina 2010



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Quoting IKE:


LOL...that skews the numbers then. Maybe that's part of the reason their higher this century in years that had 1 named through 07/31/2010.


Yeah, makes you wonder sometimes. (and they don't name extra-tropical storms unless they started as a tropical storm - I fixed it on edit)

Also, we don't really have enough historical data to go by to have a good "analog year" so the best guess is still an above normal season.
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"yawn" so bored
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597. SLU


if people are already saying this season is a bust then some bloggers here would die of rage when we get another year like this
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
Quoting StormW:
Quoting hurrkat05:
well i guess im the only one forecasting less storms then anyone in here..i will still stick with 13 ...the factors that i see that could limit the activity this hurricane season if they are around in aug and sept everyone in here is in for a big surprise..dr gray when he comes out with his updated forecast next month has no where to go but down with his numbers..im saying he drops it to and average are a little above...we will just wait and see..


Hello...is anybody home?

On 2010/07/14 11:01 AM

Dr. Klotzbach,
We met at the 2010 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. My tag said Palm Harbor Tropical Forecast Center. I was curious to know, do you have any intention on lowering you storm totals in the August update, based on the lack of activity so far this month? I'm keeping mine the same based on what you and I discussed at the conference. I still think the numbers will be met.

Thanks in advance,

T. F. "STORM" WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST/TROPICAL FORECASTER
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS (webmaster)
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)

Flag this message
Re: SEASONAL FORECAST
Wednesday, July 14, 2010 1:04 PM
From:
"Phil Klotzbach"
Add sender to Contacts
To:
"thomas walsh"

Dear Tom,

At this point, large-scale climate conditions look very favorable for an active season. June-July activity is typically very low, and consequently, we aren't surprised that we haven't had that much activity so far. An average season doesn't get its second named storm until August 1 and its first hurricane until August 10, so we are still ahead of the average season (and will be for several more weeks), even if nothing more happens.

Phil

----------------------------------------------------
Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D.
Research Scientist
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
philk@atmos.colostate.edu


You're basically trying to talk to a wall there, Storm. He's not going to listen.
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592 et al. stormtop is not, apparently, listing out the factors that will lead to a near or even below average season...
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593. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
IKE, (and the others doing historical storm counts)

Now don't forget Sub and extra-tropical storms were not counted or named back then...


LOL...that skews the numbers then. Maybe that's part of the reason their higher this century in years that had 1 named through 07/31.
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IKE, (and the others doing historical storm counts)

Now don't forget subtropical storms were not counted or named back then...
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That is crazy, 1969 being that active in El Nino. Like you guys, also just learning this now, LOL.

1969 was a warm AMO year. I believe 1950s to early 1970s were warm AMO, late 1970s to early 1990s were cold AMO, and then we are back with warm AMO since 1995 to present. So, the warm AMO may have helped 1969.
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Quoting Bordonaro:


The pattern will change over the next 7-10 days. A typical June/July is normally very quiet.

I believe we will have an above average year, however 20-27 TC's seems way too high.



No use reasoning with hurrkat, he's the original StormTop.
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587. IKE
Years that had one named storm through July 31st going back to 1950....then their totals for the rest of the season....

1951.....1/9.
1952.....1/6.
1953.....1/13.
1955.....1/11.
1958.....1/9.
1961.....1/10.
1963.....1/8.
1965.....1/5.
1969.....1/17. Highest total. Camille year.
1971.....1/12.
1980.....1/10.
1985.....1/9.
1991.....1/7.
1992.....1/6.
1993.....1/7.
1994.....1/6.
1998.....1/13.
1999.....1/11.
2001.....1/14.
2002.....1/11.
2004.....1/14.
2009.....1/10.


Also...the average number of named storms BEFORE August 1st of each year in the 60 year period of 1950 to 2009 is.....

1.83....110 named storms between 1950 and 2009 formed BEFORE August 1st of each year...110 divided by 60= 1.83 storms per year.
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Quoting StormW:


I hear ya!


Is anyone using that as an analogue for 2010, or do they go back that far for analogues?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
And firsts do happen. 2005 season set a lot of firsts.

First season with storm #22
First season with storm #23
First season with storm #24
First season with storm #25
First season with storm #26
First season with storm #27
First season with storm #28

First season with 4 cat 5 storms
First season with 4 major landfalls in the USA
First season with 7 named storms before Aug 1


2004

First season with 4 hurricanes with pressures of 960 mb or lower to hit one state (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne hitting Florida)


2010: Second deepest hurricane ever recorded in the month of June.
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Quoting hurrkat05:
well i guess im the only one forecasting less storms then anyone in here..i will still stick with 13 ...the factors that i see that could limit the activity this hurricane season if they are around in aug and sept everyone in here is in for a big surprise..dr gray when he comes out with his updated forecast next month has no where to go but down with his numbers..im saying he drops it to and average are a little above...we will just wait and see..


The pattern will change over the next 7-10 days. A typical June/July is normally very quiet.

I believe we will have an above average year, however 20-27 TC's seems way too high.

I like the 15-9-5 scenario for this season.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting StormW:


I did too when I ever first checked out 1969, due to the number of storms...what a surprise I got!


Might have been a Modoki, usually seasons like that even weak El Nino's usually feature higher amount of shear on systems. 2004 also started out in late-July like 1969.
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Quoting StormW:


No...El Nino

Oceanic Niño Index


Wish we had info for 1933.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.