Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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I would not base my forecast on Long Range Models, tropics or no tropics. They are not that accurate.
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Good Morning....The latest FSU vorticity model model run (GFS) does not develop that wave at 30W. Nothing out there at the moment with the exception of retreating SAL and plenty of moisture between Africa and the Antilles.......The "priming" continues for August.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8269
Quoting IKE:
Back to reality...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Ike i didnt see any type system in GOM on the 06 GFS I saw..It did show a low near the cape verdes out 12 days
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Quoting DestinJeff:


oh you know some will be hanging their hat all over that when they see it. "can I get the link to that?" / "what does the FIMZ show?" / "when does the next FIMZ come out?" / "I know it is experimental, but it is experimenting right over my house! lol!"


LOL, it it just another data source to be added to all the others. It is interesting that HPC has a higher latitude tropical wave east of the islands in a week.


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1518. IKE
Back to reality...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting BahaHurican:
That double barreled high is not quite as strong as it was yesterday.
Morning Baha
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That double barreled high is not quite as strong as it was yesterday.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
Glad FIMZ is experimental


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Good morning.



Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20686
1511. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N30W TO 6N31W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW WELL-DEFINED
CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW
IS ALSO ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS.
A LARGE AREA OF DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST ENCOMPASSES THE WAVE
AXIS RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
FOLLOWS A SLIGHT MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 63W-67W.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1508. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


so CMC and GFS 2.0 have some agreement?


Yeah....true.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1505. aquak9
GI model says we're good for a while, too. (GI = gut feeling)
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1504. IKE
NOGAPS and GFS operational don't show anything in the GOM aka GOO.


Quoting aquak9:
Ike, stop it. I don't wanna see nothin.


Link
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:
Oil spill trouble on the 6Z parallel GFS.


Another Texas storm? Damn, those guys have bad luck this year.
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1501. aquak9
Ike, stop it. I don't wanna see nothin.
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1500. IKE
Oil spill trouble on the 6Z parallel GFS.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP062010
9:00 AM UTC July 15 2010
===============================

SUBJECT: Depression Still Poorly Organized

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression SIX (1007 hPa) located at 15.2N 108.3W or 325 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.2N 111.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 17.2N 114.9W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.5N 118.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

TD 6E is not a well organized system. I'm not sure if it will intensify further.
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1497. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP062010
9:00 AM UTC July 15 2010
===============================

SUBJECT: Depression Still Poorly Organized

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression SIX (1007 hPa) located at 15.2N 108.3W or 325 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.2N 111.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 17.2N 114.9W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.5N 118.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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1496. xcool
I'M OUT WORK AT 8AM
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1494. scott39
Quoting JLPR2:
Well I survive with candles and flashlights if a storm hits :)
Also, if a storm does hit me, dont expect to see me till a few weeks later when I get my power back, the modem dies with the blackout and I doubt my sister will give up the precious power on her cellphone. XD
And don't worry, we turn off the candles before sleeping LOL!

Well, I'm off to bed, good night everyone. ^^
good night
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1493. scott39
Will it go and stay away?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1492. JLPR2
Well I survive with candles and flashlights if a storm hits :)
Also, if a storm does hit me, dont expect to see me till a few weeks later when I get my power back, the modem dies with the blackout and I doubt my sister will give up the precious power on her cellphone. XD
And don't worry, we turn off the candles before sleeping LOL!

Well, I'm off to bed, good night everyone. ^^
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1491. xcool
Pressures dropping in tropical


SAL GOGO BYEBYE
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1490. scott39
double huh???
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1489. xcool
huh
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1488. ycd0108
Karin:
This ain't just a Tropical blog. I find latest news here.
And I intend (and have) put current news up
Dat's what its about
As far as I'm concerned
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Quoting scott39:
Thanks Bro, LOL Im trying to throw some dry humor on my blogs tonight, look at when i want to get it off layaway.


Lol, okay. Whatever you say!
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1486. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONSON (T1002)
15:00 PM JST July 15 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In The South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Conson (985 hPa) located at 16.3N 113.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.3N 111.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 20.1N 109.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 21.8N 108.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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1485. scott39
Quoting jlp09550:


Check Lowe's. I know our local hardware store (Stines) is allowing us to put generators on layaway before the major rush comes in.
Thanks Bro, LOL Im trying to throw some dry humor on my blogs tonight, look at when i want to get it off layaway.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1484. xcool
high pressure BY GOM start to weake
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Quoting scott39:
Can you put Generators on Layaway? I would like to get mine out by Nov 30th.


Check Lowe's. I know our local hardware store (Stines) is allowing us to put generators on layaway before the major rush comes in.
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Quoting ycd0108:
Cheap at twice the price!
I finally signed in
now I'm going to sleep
'Course up here in B.C. Canada 10 USD turns into about 18 CDN
Whatever


BC on a tropical blog? That's even more removed than me up here in Iowa ;)
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1481. scott39
Can you put Generators on Layaway? I would like to get mine out by Nov 30th.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
1480. xcool
ECMWF,shows wave
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Quoting JLPR2:


it develops the spin!
interesting *scratches chin* XD


It's the CMC. Next up, it'll be developing a system over Mongolia and having it make landfall as a Cat 5 in Antarctica. ;)

The Atlantic will soon be ripe for development, now that the SAL is declining and the atmosphere is moistening. But I doubt the first wave to hit water during this phase, whose storms are separated from its circulation, is going to contribute to the storm count.
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Quoting btwntx08:

oh there we go finally lol


Oh good, I was getting scared my imagery server was acting up again, lol.
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1477. ycd0108
Cheap at twice the price!
I finally signed in
now I'm going to sleep
'Course up here in B.C. Canada 10 USD turns into about 18 CDN
Whatever
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.