Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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675. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I've stopped following it actually. Its inconsistency is too heavy for my liking.

Nowcasting is much better.


What does it show for the end of July?
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674. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL LIFT N OF AREA FRI. A
WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SE GULF WILL DISSIPATE ON
THU. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF FROM THE TEXAS
COAST SAT DISSIPATING BY SAT NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REDEVELOP
ALONG 27N SUN AND LIFT N TO 29N BY MON EVENING.


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS EVENING...INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU
AND THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT MOVING INLAND SUN.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W LATE FRI AND
MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT...REACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
MON. A THIRD WAVE WILL APPROACH 55W ON SUN AND MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN MON.
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Pretty significant outbreak today.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Overview of models.

ECMWF shows a 1010 mb low at 48 hours, kills it off quickly but sends the moisture in the same general track as the other models developing a low.

CMC just shows increased moisture in that time frame.

GFS parallel shows a system in about 72 hours.

NAM shows a system in that time frame too.

NOGAPS develops the system in that time frame too.

Anything on the UKMET?


Where do the models show this potential storm going? What direction?
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For all we know...

August, September, or October could have the most ever recorder in a single month.

We just dont know. So theres really no reason to speculate based on the lack of activity that has occurred so far.
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Overview of models.

ECMWF shows a 1010 mb low at 48 hours, kills it off quickly but sends the moisture in the same general track as the other models developing a low.

CMC just shows increased moisture in that time frame.

GFS parallel shows a system in about 72 hours.

NAM shows a system in that time frame too.

NOGAPS develops the system in that time frame too.

EDIT: 12z UKMET shows a system similar to the ECMWF.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
Insignificant but, its there.
12z UKMET
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668. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
By my count (last 3 seasons on the Blog) this same debate as to how many storms, and whether the season is a bust, occurs EVERY year in June and July when things slow down until the real kick-off in August. This period is, using a sports analogy and by climatological history, just the "Pre-Season" and speculation abounds. Forget the specific numbers; by climatological average, we have below-average years, average years, and above-average years (with a mean of 10 storms)......All current indicators point towards an above-average year....The rest of it will be determined when it ends on Nov 30th.


True...it does every year. And after going back to 1950 and averaging the number of storms that occur the first 2 months, June and July aren't really worth following.

Average of 1.83 per year in June and July.

The one problem...comparisons in 2010, by some experts, to 2005. That comparison didn't materialized based on June and July.

But, it has no bearing on how active it will be in August and beyond.
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Quoting angiest:


With an unknown number of fish storms that were missed.
I am sure some were missed. With all those storms that were out there, the ships would scatter to avoid being hit.
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CybrTeddy I think that it is 4 models the NAM, GFS,NOGAP AND WRF

Link
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
FWIW, The 12z NAM is onboard for the NOGAPS storm.

What is that twist in the western Gulf?
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Quoting hydrus:
................................And all the storms(as far as they know)formed west of 50 or 55 degrees west.


With an unknown number of fish storms that were missed.
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Afternoon Storm W n Ike!!!!
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


That was due to the great dome of high pressure that was over the great plains over the early 1930's. Hence the Dust Bowl.


And this year at least seems similar. The setup may not be the same for extreme drought in the plains, but we have had some pretty nice high pressure at least in the south.
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Quoting superweatherman:

But is very disorganize why even name it DEPRESSION SIX-E


Because it obviously met the requirements to be classified.

Why must everyone go against the NHC?
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Quoting IKE:


Agree, it does make changes...but, that downward MJO looks pretty significant. Could it change? Yes.


No doubt, I'm just saying man. Just look at the latest 2 week verification of the GFS/GEFS. Certainly does not deserve a good grade.

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Quoting angiest:
This is what interests me about 1933 so much. Check out the tracks of the first 5 storms:











All 5 of these storms formed prior to 8/1.
................................And all the storms(as far as they know)formed west of 50 or 55 degrees west.
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Quoting IKE:


Agree, it does make changes...but, that downward MJO looks pretty significant. Could it change? Yes.


I've stopped following it actually. Its inconsistency is too heavy for my liking.

Nowcasting is much better.
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FWIW, ECMWF shows a 1010 mb low in the same place the NAM, GFS, and NOGAPS shows it and takes it on the same general track. Keeps it really weak..

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


6E has only been numbered, not named.

But is very disorganize why even name it DEPRESSION SIX-E
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655. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


If you follow it consistently, it makes pretty modest changes every day.


Agree, it does make changes...but, that downward MJO looks pretty significant. Could it change? Yes.
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August and September 1933 saw more storms that went further north and/or east, but late in the season returned to the pattern of westward movers, either into Central America or the Western GOM/BOC.
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By my count (last 3 seasons on the Blog) this same debate as to how many storms, and whether the season is a bust, occurs EVERY year in June and July when things slow down until the real kick-off in August. This period is, using a sports analogy and by climatological history, just the "Pre-Season" and speculation abounds. Forget the specific numbers; by climatological average, we have below-average years, average years (with a mean of 10 storms), and above-average years......All current indicators point towards an above-average year....The rest of it will be determined when it ends on Nov 30th.
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Quoting StormW:


Well, theres where your're wrong...the point being, folks know that I know folks, I don't have to broadcast it.


I really hate to see you even wasting your breath but I guess it's a necessary evil! Keep on keepin' on man! Thanks for the info and patience.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
FWIW, The 12z NAM is onboard for the NOGAPS storm.



That's 3 now. NOGAPS, NAM, GFS parallel (much more reliable at Caribbean development than regular GFS)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23923
Quoting IKE:


To add...I've never read anything on here from anyone doubting the MJO that is posted on here from the GFS.

I'm not saying it can't change as the dates get closer, but I've never read anything to what you are saying.


If you follow it consistently, it makes pretty modest changes every day.
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649. SLU
Quoting Dakster:
SLU - True... 1914 was obviously a slow year... just how many, if any, storms were missed we will never know.


I suppose that's why they don't quote statistics prior to 1950 or so but the trends back then are similar to now. Climatology never lies no matter what period your sample is taken from.
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Quoting angiest:
This is what interests me about 1933 so much. Check out the tracks of the first 5 storms:











All 5 of these storms formed prior to 8/1.


That was due to the great dome of high pressure that was over the great plains over the early 1930's. Hence the Dust Bowl.
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647. IKE
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Ike, as a daily poster here you should know by now that the GFS does poorly with MJO forecast. How do you supose it is right when it isn't initalize the current stregnth of the MJO correctly? My point is that don't put much faith in the model forecasts for MJO as it usually does not behave as its suposed to.


To add...I've never read anything on here from anyone doubting the MJO that is posted on here from the GFS.

I'm not saying it can't change as the dates get closer, but I've never read anything to what you are saying.
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Quoting superweatherman:

and that is why we are with only one name storm in the Atlantic.. How can they name this?


6E has only been numbered, not named.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11112
645. SLU
Quoting 2ndGenHunter:


Considering the available technology it a wonder that they picked up on as any tropical events as they did back before 1900. I recall my father saying that up into the early 20th century that eye formation was thought to be somewhat apocryphal. The 1935 Labor Day storm had a reliable witness to a well formed eye and the 892 mb reading matched later in an anechoic chamber by the NWS held the record for the ATL until Gilbert.


Well they got most of the observations via ship reports and extrapolated the storm tracks based on that. For instance if ship "A" reported a storm at 10n 35w three days ago and ship "B" reported a storm at 15n 50w today then they would estimate a WNW motion at X mph thus being able to warn PR and the Leewards of an approaching system. That's hows they got the storm tracks long ago.
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644. IKE
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Ike, as a daily poster here you should know by now that the GFS does poorly with MJO forecast. How do you supose it is right when it isn't initalize the current stregnth of the MJO correctly?


That's news to me.
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This is what interests me about 1933 so much. Check out the tracks of the first 5 storms:











All 5 of these storms formed prior to 8/1.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
FWIW, The 12z NAM is onboard for the NOGAPS storm.



Looks similar to the GFS parallel 12z
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30297
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StormW....I'm curious about something. You obviously have a knowledge base about tropical cyclones that's amongst the tops here on WU. But, on these connections that you speak of, and I don't doubt that you've acquired connections over the years. My question....How does having connections improve your forecast? The first thought that comes into my mind is that you're implying that folks at the NHC have info that they're not passing on. Is this what you mean?
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Quoting StormW:


LMAO Bordonaro!
Hello Storm.Storm just ignore people who obviously doesnt know a thing about weather.You are a much better person to give them any acknowledgement.We that know you,know ou are brilliant at what you do.JMHO!!!!!!!!
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and that is why we are with only one name storm in the Atlantic.. How can they name this?
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Quoting IKE:
We've had a storm day 8 out of the first 44 days of this season.

Dr. Gray is calling for 90 as the season total. There's 183 total in a season. That leaves 93 days with no named storm. We've already used up 36 of those. That only leaves 54 more.




And there it goes....



Ike, as a daily poster here you should know by now that the GFS does poorly with MJO forecast. How do you supose it is right when it isn't initalize the current stregnth of the MJO correctly? My point is that don't put much faith in the model forecasts for MJO as it usually does not behave as its suposed to.
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FWIW, The 12z NAM is onboard for the NOGAPS storm.

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Quoting StormW:
It's ok to have an opinion, and I could care less if someone agrees with me or not. I don't even mind a good debate. But for some folks to come on here to just stir the pot, and make remarks and want to argue all the time in the face of data that states the contrary, and to provide no scientific analog, realtime, or projected conditions, is just ludicrous.


Amen, brother.

Another stat that may interest some of you (at least the ones interested in analogies and statistics and all that other boring meteorological stuff): 1950 had the second highest ACE ever (243, comparable to 2005's 248), three major storms before the end of August (a record), six named storms in October (a record), and eight major storms overall (a record)...yet the first storm didn't appear until August 12.
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Quoting SLU:


true

But in previous years they were able to track storms in the deep tropics via ship and land observations like they did in 1899 ...



Considering the available technology it a wonder that they picked up on as any tropical events as they did back before 1900. I recall my father saying that up into the early 20th century that eye formation was thought to be somewhat apocryphal. The 1935 Labor Day storm had a reliable witness to a well formed eye and the 892 mb reading matched later in an anechoic chamber by the NWS held the record for the ATL until Gilbert.
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633. IKE
We've had a storm day 8 out of the first 44 days of this season.

Dr. Gray is calling for 90 as the season total. There's 183 total in a season. That leaves 93 days with no named storm. We've already used up 36 of those. That only leaves 54 more.


Quoting xcool:


OH HERE COME MJO M O J


And there it goes....

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000
WTPZ31 KNHC 142034
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010
200 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 107.2W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


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SLU - True... 1914 was obviously a slow year... just how many, if any, storms were missed we will never know.
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630. xcool


OH HERE COME MJO MJ O
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Try to blow it off, Storm. I think you're right and it's extremely frustrating to say the least, but of course, that's why that HIDE button is so nice sometimes. Also, take heart in the fact that the good guys tend to be on here to learn or really look at the data so they're more active on here when it's more active out there. Quiet time just seems to bring the goofballs out who'd rather throw guesses out willy nilly without considering the data and self aggrandize. It's easier that way since there are fewer people to call them out.
Anyhoo, try not to sweat the turkeys :)
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628. SLU










i guess we will never know
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Quoting StormW:


LMAO Bordonaro!

A little humor is good :o)
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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