Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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726. SLU
Quoting Dakster:


Yep. The thing that makes it difficult to truly predict is that climate doesn't just go in 10, 20, 50, or 100 year cycles. There are also 500 year, 1,000 year, 10,000 year, etc... cycles and we don't really now where we are in those compared to where we were in 1914 (almost 100 years ago). We could be in an exact climatological sync with 1914 in all cycle time periods OR we make be a ways away. We won't really know until Dec. 1, 2010 how this year truly shakes out. There are other factors that will change climatology, some of which are "man-made" and others are naturally occurring.

(BTW - I think this is a healthy and polite debate)


Yeah of course

Sometimes I wish "official" hurricane records were collected prior to 1851 .. say over the last 300 or 400 years. Maybe freak years like 2005 might not have been that freakish afterall and patterns we've never observed in our time might have occured 200 years earlier so that way we would understand them better.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5104
NEXRAD Radar
Green Bay, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
I used to have a link to a page that had frequently updated satellite (visible and IR) images for Africa, but no longer do. Does anyone have such a link?
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Storm chaser, Dave Casper reporting some debris with the tornado.
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NEXRAD Radar
Green Bay, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Quoting StormW:
ARX Storm Relative Velocity

img src="Photobucket" alt="" />

Thanks, Storm!
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NEXRAD Radar
Green Bay, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Stormw,

Just keep on forecasting for those of us that respect your extensive knowledge and experience.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
looks like the mood on the blog has taken a turn away from the lighthearted of yesterday evening.

you lighthearted caster you
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Does anybody have velocity on that hook echo.
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Live feeds from the Gulf of Mexico ROVs
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
NEXRAD Radar
Green Bay, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128217
Quoting SLU:


I suppose that's why they don't quote statistics prior to 1950 or so but the trends back then are similar to now. Climatology never lies no matter what period your sample is taken from.


Yep. The thing that makes it difficult to truly predict is that climate doesn't just go in 10, 20, 50, or 100 year cycles. There are also 500 year, 1,000 year, 10,000 year, etc... cycles and we don't really now where we are in those compared to where we were in 1914 (almost 100 years ago). We could be in an exact climatological sync with 1914 in all cycle time periods OR we make be a ways away. We won't really know until Dec. 1, 2010 how this year truly shakes out. There are other factors that will change climatology, some of which are "man-made" and others are naturally occurring.

(BTW - I think this is a healthy and polite debate)
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Quoting StormW:
Ameister12,

Where's that radar shot out of?

The NWC in La Crosse, WI.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Very strong tornadic signature.


Nice hook echo. Wish I had time to look at it in the velocity scan. But I must away.
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Very strong tornadic signature.

Neillsville better take shelter. Tornado is on the ground.
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Have a Great Afternoon Folks and You Keep on Truckin Storm......With no blobs to watch in the Atlantic right now, its back to watching for model consensus on the toughest issue to predict....The exact timing and location of cyclogenisis........:)
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Man, there was a power outage at my house that lasted from 3:30 AM to 4:00 PM. I think it was some kind of disturbance. But it's over.
Minnesota & Wisconsin are getting the worst of the outbreak (I think... -_-)


Looks like a Derecho is in the process of forming.

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TD 6-e not looking good at all.
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Man, there was a power outage at my house that lasted from 3:30 AM to 4:00 PM. I think it was some kind of disturbance. But it's over.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty significant outbreak today.


Minnesota & Wisconsin are getting the worst of the outbreak (I think... -_-)
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695. xcool
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 77W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 67W-72W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN E OF 78W...ESPECIALLY OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA...
MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 23N73W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
S OF THIS CENTER IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT...CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15669
694. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP062010
21:00 PM UTC July 14 2010
===============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression SIX (1006 hPa) located at 14.9N 107.2W or 300 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 15.8N 110.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 16.6N 114.1W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.2N 118.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Actually, I was referring to July specifically.


Ah okay, I see what what you mean. Well, we did have a Tropical Depression. We still have 2 weeks of July left. I'm fairly confident we will see some more action before August rolls around.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Note the lack of outflow on the N quadrant.. Conson's getting sheared.

Yes it is. It's under 30 knots of shear.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
420 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 415 PM CDT...SPOTTER REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST
SOUTHEAST OF OSSEO. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.


* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
HUMBIRD AROUND 425 PM...
NEILLSVILLE AROUND 440 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! CARS AND MOBILE HOMES SHOULD BE ABANDONED
FOR A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LAY FLAT IN A DITCH AND
COVER YOUR HEAD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
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690. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15669
Quoting IKE:


What does it show for the end of July?


lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30486
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Mike, Don't forget we had a 947mb hurricane 2 weeks ago.



Actually, I was referring to July specifically.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Nice burst of convection over Conson.

Link


Note the lack of outflow on the N quadrant.. Conson's getting sheared.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
well angiest it looks like the NW Caribbean
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
For all we know...

August, September, or October could have the most ever recorder in a single month.

We just dont know. So there really no reason to speculate based on the lack of activity that has occurred so far.


Mike, Don't forget we had a 947mb hurricane 2 weeks ago.

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Nice burst of convection over Conson.

Link
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Quoting primadonnagirl:


it is a bust

im not even worry

i call this 2009 part 2 but weaker

im never wrong


Your basis for that is...
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


LOL, I hate debugging, especially when using WTO IV.


LOL...I haven't debugged in a couple of years
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WRF isn't what I'd consider a 'reliable' model.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Wow now I see a lot of models showing something in the SW Caribbean

#1 GFS
#2 NAM
#3 NOGAP
#4 WRF
#5 ECMWF
#6 UKMET

Keep an eye on that area
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I'd consider it pretty low model support on an actual system developing, but most of the reliable models are showing a low developing with the exception of the CMC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
Quoting IKE:


True...it does every year. And after going back to 1950 and averaging the number of storms that occur the first 2 months, June and July aren't really worth following.

Average of 1.83 per year in June and July.

The one problem...comparisons in 2010, by some experts, to 2005. That comparison didn't materialized based on June and July.

But, it has no bearing on how active it will be in August and beyond.


I agree with you, and climatology, 100% as far and June and July (they are essentially throwaways)......The was no WU Blog in 1992, and if there was, the whole place would have melted down in June and July, and, the first few weeks of August with no storms, until, Andrew came out of the box and flattened Southern Dade County....Its not about the numbers; its all about individual storm trajectories and intensity at landfall.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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