Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Drak, I don't know where to find steering current forecasts and don't wanna sound like JFV when I ask "where will it go" LOL, but where might steering currents take it? Die in CA? Cross into the EPAC? Hit CA, come back over water (barely) before hitting the Yucatan? (Like Tropical Storm Katrina of 1999?)


From the southern Caribbean it will likely move WNW or NW towards the northwestern Caribbean. The GFS parallel takes it on an Alex like track afterwards.
Quoting StormW:
Drak,

I haven't really been following the GFS Parallel too much, keep forgetting to add it to my analysis table. Hoe's it been performing, in your opinion?

TIA.


It has been performing better than the regular GFS from what I have seen so far.
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775. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Storm, if you're still here, (anyone else can answer too), is the GFS on that e-WALL site parallel or regular?


If you're talking about the FSU sight, it's the regular or operational...Link
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post768 is that from noaa?
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Storm, if you're still here, (anyone else can answer too), is the GFS on that e-WALL site parallel or regular?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
RTAP Atlantic animated loops
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Folks in the Upper MS Valley, please keep your eyes on the weather, these Severe Thunderstorms can be large hail, strong wind, torrential downpour and tornado producers.
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Quoting Ameister12:
TD 6-e not looking good at all.


...and some folks on here thought TD2 a week and a half ago was a fake... Looked far better than this.
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Quoting StormW:


PSU e-WALL


TYVM.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Scenario for around the 20-24 of July.
While the A/B High is forecast to weaken and the North African low move back east relaxing the gradient between the two resulting in reduced dust at the same time the high that has been persistent in the South Atlantic is going to be replaced by a long wave trough. This is going to pull the wave that comes off Africa during this time frame south and keep it south long enough to develop where it will hit a bit of high pressure from the A/B High that has been pushed south into the trough and stall or slow with no very little steering. If it does not go to far south it has a chance at becoming a very strong storm regardless is should develop a large amount of convection and eventually come out of the ITCZ in an impressive fashion where it should get pulled north by a trough coming off the east coast. This could be our first large MDR storm.
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GOES-12 WV Atlantic
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Can anyone help me with a link for a water vapor loop from the Caribbean to the African coast?
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765. IKE
Atlantic Remains Quiet
Jul 14, 2010 6:06 PM


We are tracking tropical waves along 20 west, along 41 west and along 61 west. The tropical waves show no organized features as they move quickly to the west at the pace of about 8 degrees longitude per day. The tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles along 61 west is projected to move into the Caribbean later tomorrow and Friday. Dry air and strong shear will prevent tropical development with this wave as it moves west across the Caribbean this weekend. The next tropical wave along 41 west is embedded in a large area of Saharan dust. The dust is suppressing thunderstorm development along most of the wave. Given a lack of thunderstorms this wave will not have a chance at development for the next several days. However support for development might change early next week. An upper level storm system just northwest of Hispaniola is creating the strong shear across the central Caribbean. This feature will move west southwest across the western Caribbean during the next 2-3 days. As this upper level system backs westward shear will decrease and the upper levels over the eastern and central Caribbean will become more favorable for development by early next week. The tropical wave along 41 west could benefit from this more favorable upper level pattern as it tracks over the northern Caribbean and southern Bahamas early next week

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I think we have sufficiently exhausted all possible numerical/statistical comparisons between 2010 and any other year(s).

The one common denominator between them all: they don't mean jack.
Truth.
A total waste of bandwidth...of use only for those obsessed with this site.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I think we have sufficiently exhausted all possible numerical/statistical comparisons between 2010 and any other year(s).

The one common denominator between them all: they don't mean jack.


Well put.

There are just so many parameters that affect how a season turns out, and a lot of it is just dumb luck (timing of fronts, etc). This season could do nothing for the next week, but ramp up so fast that it outdoes 2005. It could get another storm this week, but have a big SAL problem during the peak of the season and end up below average.
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Skandi_ROV 2
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
2 Valves shut..main port diverted to the choke side I believe. Phase one of the integrity test is on.

Note the X-ray view.

Enlarge for detail shot of the stack and bore

Q4000_ROV 1
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
Haven't seen anything about it in the blog here, but we had a system move across northern Europe today (France, Belgium, Holland, Germany) spinning off multiple supercells, tornadoes etc... Third event in 5 days, all of which have been pretty intense storm systems. However, today we've had the first tornado death in Holland in a little over 40 years, to the best of my knowledge. At least 1 dead and 4 seriously injured when a twister hit a camp site and picked up 20 caravans and blew them into a lake. 5 power pylons downed too. Police still searching the lake for bodies.
A very unusual event this.
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Quoting Patrap:
This cant be good..

I tink



Skandi_ROV 2


Actually right on plan...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Bonnie



Drak, I don't know where to find steering current forecasts and don't wanna sound like JFV when I ask "where will it go" LOL, but where might steering currents take it? Die in CA? Cross into the EPAC? Hit CA, come back over water (barely) before hitting the Yucatan? (Like Tropical Storm Katrina of 1999?)
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
I really wish ECMWF would come out more often than 3:20 am and 3:20 pm..
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752. xcool
18Z NGP TOO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
New tornado warning.
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Quoting Drakoen:
GFS parallel 18z. Continuing to show the development of a southern Caribbean cyclone. You can see the outflow channels associated with the system. This is not simply the Panamanian low.

Quoting Drakoen:
Bonnie


That is a very scary model...but at least we'll see some activity...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WFUS53 KARX 142212
TORARX
WIC081-142245-
/O.NEW.KARX.TO.W.0010.100714T2212Z-100714T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
512 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 508 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE DEVELOPING
TORNADO NEAR SPARTA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS TORNADO WARNING
UPGRADES THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONROE
COUNTY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORT MC COY AND JACKSON PASS AROUND 525 PM...
RIDGEVILLE AROUND 530 PM...
TUNNEL CITY AROUND 535 PM...
TOMAH AND I 94 EXIT 143 AROUND 540 PM...
I 90 AND I 94 INTERCHANGE AND I 90 EXIT 43 AROUND 545 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! CARS AND MOBILE HOMES SHOULD BE ABANDONED
FOR A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LAY FLAT IN A DITCH AND
COVER YOUR HEAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4411 9038 4388 9036 4387 9086 4403 9087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 254DEG 26KT 4395 9078

$$

AJ

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746. xcool



18Z



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StormW:


Well, doesn't improve my forecasting, and no, there is no info they are not passing, what I meant was, having met the folks I have, and still holding a title as Senior Chief, and with these folks knowing I forecast for the Coast Guard, it's just a little easier, not all the time, to get the info in a more timely manner, other than waiting for things to post by a certain date. The point I was making by posting the email, was that being shown as an email conversation, I felt it would hold more credibility, than me just posting Well, Dr. Klotzbach said this or that...to have it in black and white instead of word of mouth.

Thanks for the answer. That makes sense and clears up my confusion.
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SSIG - NICE comparison. Kind of proves we are not repeating history there.
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130
WFUS53 KARX 142212
TORARX
WIC081-142245-
/O.NEW.KARX.TO.W.0010.100714T2212Z-100714T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
512 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 508 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE DEVELOPING
TORNADO NEAR SPARTA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS TORNADO WARNING
UPGRADES THE PREVIOUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONROE
COUNTY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
FORT MC COY AND JACKSON PASS AROUND 525 PM...
RIDGEVILLE AROUND 530 PM...
TUNNEL CITY AROUND 535 PM...
TOMAH AND I 94 EXIT 143 AROUND 540 PM...
I 90 AND I 94 INTERCHANGE AND I 90 EXIT 43 AROUND 545 PM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT OR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! CARS AND MOBILE HOMES SHOULD BE ABANDONED
FOR A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST RESORT...LAY FLAT IN A DITCH AND
COVER YOUR HEAD.



LAT...LON 4411 9038 4388 9036 4387 9086 4403 9087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 254DEG 26KT 4395 9078
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
742. xcool
97L COME SOON IFIFIF HAPPENS
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StormW:


Karen, will this help?

EUMETSAT


Better than nothing... the interface is kind of funky, but at least the images are there. :)
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Quoting Drakoen:
Bonnie



Has model support too, we'll have to watch it closely. If the ECMWF jumps on board full time with a tropical cyclone instead of a low then its very possible something might happen, as this appears to be very short term, this week.
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This is a new ROV View..

A Radar or Sonar Image of the Well Bore maybe.

Q4000_ROV 1

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
737. xcool
NAM ??? shows any development
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Bonnie

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735. xcool
;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting SLU:


Yeah of course

Sometimes I wish "official" hurricane records were collected prior to 1851 .. say over the last 300 or 400 years. Maybe freak years like 2005 might not have been that freakish afterall and patterns we've never observed in our time might have occured 200 years earlier so that way we would understand them better.


Yeah. Me too. Something that our great,great, great grand kids will have for sure.
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GFS parallel 18z. Continuing to show the development of a southern Caribbean cyclone. You can see the outflow channels associated with the system. This is not simply the Panamanian low.

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Oly_ROV 2
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
This cant be good..

I tink



Skandi_ROV 2
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129909
The hook is being eaten by another storm! Cannibalism!!!

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I think Conson is heading to Vietnam Whatever is supposed to turn it into China isn't doing it's job
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726. SLU
Quoting Dakster:


Yep. The thing that makes it difficult to truly predict is that climate doesn't just go in 10, 20, 50, or 100 year cycles. There are also 500 year, 1,000 year, 10,000 year, etc... cycles and we don't really now where we are in those compared to where we were in 1914 (almost 100 years ago). We could be in an exact climatological sync with 1914 in all cycle time periods OR we make be a ways away. We won't really know until Dec. 1, 2010 how this year truly shakes out. There are other factors that will change climatology, some of which are "man-made" and others are naturally occurring.

(BTW - I think this is a healthy and polite debate)


Yeah of course

Sometimes I wish "official" hurricane records were collected prior to 1851 .. say over the last 300 or 400 years. Maybe freak years like 2005 might not have been that freakish afterall and patterns we've never observed in our time might have occured 200 years earlier so that way we would understand them better.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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