Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:
Only 23 entries in the past half hour. Has everyone been banned?


LOL, i think the ban stick lately got small or this would be just a posting and not a blog.
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Quoting Grothar:
Only 23 entries in the past half hour. Has everyone been banned?
Hi Grothar. I am just lurking and reading over what Drakoen is saying concerning development in the SW Caribbean this weekend.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting DestinJeff:
Finally! I have been hunting for something that would graphically depict typical seasonal activity. I found something that most of you probably have not seen, and I think this will be the end all be all for the debate about what kind of season 2010 will be.



Hate to burt your bubble, but they show that nightly on the TWC and has been posted here at least 10 times in the past 2 days. I posted it myself last night. It is also on the NHC website, slightly different version
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26424
Quoting IKE:
Parallel GFS 18Z at 192 hours shows a system heading for northern Mexico and Brownsville,TX....how unique....



Looks like ECMWF has a blob in about the same place but dunno where it comes from. May be something to watch.

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821. xcool
keep eye on SW Caribbean !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
820. xcool
no ban .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Only 23 entries in the past half hour. Has everyone been banned?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26424
Quoting bappit:

Glad no one is discussing the Topic that Will Not Be Named about now.


Climatology never lies no matter what period your sample is taken from.

bappit, if this was taken directly from a University site, it should have read: Climatology never lies, no matter from which period one's sample is taken.

Hope is wasn't written by a professor. LOL
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26424
The Parallel GFS iz interesting
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
815. xcool
woof i need food lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
ilove tropical weather,woof

Down, boy.
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812. xcool
ilove tropical weather,woof
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting DestinJeff:
is it wrong of me to be hoping for Bonnie, just to ease some of the back and forth about seasonal activity on the blog? or am I simply delusional thinking that Bonnie will have any affect on that back and forth anyway?


Well you may be delusional about fixing the blog. But you're not the only one wishing for Bonnie.
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Quoting SLU:


Climatology never lies no matter what period your sample is taken from.

Glad no one is discussing the Topic that Will Not Be Named about now.
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809. xcool
homelesswanderer thanks :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting DestinJeff:
is it wrong of me to be hoping for Bonnie, just to ease some of the back and forth about seasonal activity on the blog? or am I simply delusional thinking that Bonnie will have any affect on that back and forth anyway?


lol
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Quoting xcool:
homelesswanderer hey /why ??/


Because you enjoy being here and never be mean. I like talking to people who are into the tropics like me. :)
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806. xcool
watchSW Caribbean !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting DestinJeff:
is it wrong of me to be hoping for Bonnie, just to ease some of the back and forth about seasonal activity on the blog? or am I simply delusional thinking that Bonnie will have any affect on that back and forth anyway?

On this poll I vote: Delusional. :)
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Quoting lilElla:
The air is heavy, dew point 76F.

Actually moist air is less dense than dry air.

Edit: But yeah, that humidity reading is really up there.
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803. xcool
homelesswanderer hey /why ??/
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
Drakoen :) yayy


xcool you always make me smile. :) Good evening all. :)
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800. CaribBoy
11:18 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
The tropical wave at 30W looks suspicious as conditions should improve early next week.
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799. xcool
11:14 PM GMT on July 14, 2010


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798. HurricaneSwirl
11:13 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Quoting Drakoen:
Area needs to be watched closely over the next 48 hours:



Yeah.. Didn't realize just how fast the GFS parallel was bringing Bonnie our way. If this run verifies, will have it on Friday/Saturday. We'll have to see though. I think it's kinda on the unlikely side.
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797. xcool
11:07 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Drakoen :) yayy
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796. Patrap
11:06 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Definitely a Rough weather day for our Neighbors up North.



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795. lilElla
11:03 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Thanks Senior Chief and Pat for the updates!
The storm reports from Central WI and now slipping farther south - damaging winds, rotating wall clouds, hail,and tornadoes. Some of the tops have been going over 50K. The air is heavy, dew point 76F.
Member Since: December 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 273
794. stormwatcherCI
11:02 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
The wave in the central atlantic is'nt looking bad.May need to be watched.That could in my opinion be the precursor to the carribean storm that the models are forecasting.
Too far away. *Caribbean
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793. Grothar
11:00 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Quoting lunabaas2:
Haven't seen anything about it in the blog here, but we had a system move across northern Europe today (France, Belgium, Holland, Germany) spinning off multiple supercells, tornadoes etc... Third event in 5 days, all of which have been pretty intense storm systems. However, today we've had the first tornado death in Holland in a little over 40 years, to the best of my knowledge. At least 1 dead and 4 seriously injured when a twister hit a camp site and picked up 20 caravans and blew them into a lake. 5 power pylons downed too. Police still searching the lake for bodies.
A very unusual event this.


Where are you luna?
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792. Patrap
10:59 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Caribbean - Rainbow Loop
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790. Drakoen
10:57 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Area needs to be watched closely over the next 48 hours:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559
788. IKE
10:55 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Ike, can you post the link to the parallel GPS?

Thanks.


Link
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786. cyclonekid
10:55 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
785. barbamz
10:52 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Quoting lunabaas2:
Haven't seen anything about it in the blog here, but we had a system move across northern Europe today (France, Belgium, Holland, Germany) spinning off multiple supercells, tornadoes etc... Third event in 5 days, all of which have been pretty intense storm systems. However, today we've had the first tornado death in Holland in a little over 40 years, to the best of my knowledge. At least 1 dead and 4 seriously injured when a twister hit a camp site and picked up 20 caravans and blew them into a lake. 5 power pylons downed too. Police still searching the lake for bodies.
A very unusual event this.


Oh, I haven't heard about the dead and injured before. That's really bad. I've posted a pic from the squall line earlier; moreover I there is a video from my town on my blog (first video I've tried to upload; so not a Hollywood-production).
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 6005
784. Bordonaro
10:52 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Quoting lunabaas2:
Haven't seen anything about it in the blog here, but we had a system move across northern Europe today (France, Belgium, Holland, Germany) spinning off multiple supercells, tornadoes etc... Third event in 5 days, all of which have been pretty intense storm systems. However, today we've had the first tornado death in Holland in a little over 40 years, to the best of my knowledge. At least 1 dead and 4 seriously injured when a twister hit a camp site and picked up 20 caravans and blew them into a lake. 5 power pylons downed too. Police still searching the lake for bodies.
A very unusual event this.

Barbanz is in Northern Germany, she has stated that there was a relatively large Severe Weather outbreak through portions of Northern Europe.

My condolences to the family in Holland for their loss. Severe weather is less common in Europe than in the USA. I hope the meteorologists across the EU nations have been tracking these outbreaks closely.

When severe weather threatens, always listen to your local news, radio and follow your national weather service forecasts, and be prepared to take action, i.e. taking shelter in a sturdy structure, away from windows. If a tornado threatens, head to the center most portion of your home, the smallest room, such as the bathroom or interior closet.
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783. Grothar
10:51 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26424
781. Patrap
10:49 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
From accuweather.com



Russia Suffers Severe Heat, Drought
Jul 14, 2010; 5:26 AM ET



A man enjoys waterjets seeking coolness in a fountain at the Alexandrovsky Garden outside the Kremlin in Moscow, Tuesday, July 13, 2010. A heat wave hit the city with temperatures going higher than 30 C (86 F). (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel)

Severe heat, made worse in areas by drought, has already gripped a wide swath of the Russian heartland since the first of summer, and prospects are for even more of the abnormal heat.

Health, water supply and crops have all taken a hit in many areas.

Average temperatures for the summer so far have been at least 10 F above normal between the western borders and the Ural Mountains. Moscow, for instance, has tallied more than 10 F above normal has of July 13. In Saint Petersburg, the average temperature since the start of summer has been almost 12 F above normal.

Readings as high as 92 F in Moscow and 90 F in Saint Petersburg have broken records.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
779. Patrap
10:47 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Moscow melts in intense heat (WRAPUP)

High temperatures have changed the usual course of people's lives in Moscow, forcing the army to dress down and the changing of the guard to be cancelled.

RUSSIAN ARMY STRIPS OFF

The Russian Army will temporarily relax its strict dress code due to the extremely hot weather, a spokesman for the Russian Army told RIA Novosti on Wednesday.
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778. Grothar
10:46 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26424
777. IKE
10:46 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Parallel GFS 18Z at 192 hours shows a system heading for northern Mexico and Brownsville,TX....how unique....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
776. Drakoen
10:45 PM GMT on July 14, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Drak, I don't know where to find steering current forecasts and don't wanna sound like JFV when I ask "where will it go" LOL, but where might steering currents take it? Die in CA? Cross into the EPAC? Hit CA, come back over water (barely) before hitting the Yucatan? (Like Tropical Storm Katrina of 1999?)


From the southern Caribbean it will likely move WNW or NW towards the northwestern Caribbean. The GFS parallel takes it on an Alex like track afterwards.
Quoting StormW:
Drak,

I haven't really been following the GFS Parallel too much, keep forgetting to add it to my analysis table. Hoe's it been performing, in your opinion?

TIA.


It has been performing better than the regular GFS from what I have seen so far.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30559

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.