Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:



Gotta shrink that globe Baha! Took me 20 minutes to scroll from top to bottom. I know the Earth is big, but I don't have to post the whole thing here.
Sorry Grothar. [hangs head] I was TRYing to make it smaller but [sniffs] it wouldn't fold....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
873. SLU
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

Some interesting discussion about 1914 going on earlier. I'd say while a few other storms may have been missed (likely 2-3, but possibly as many as 5?) I don't believe this season had a much higher ACE than is currently on record. That's because only particularly shortlived storms would have been able to completely miss the attention of mariners. Don't forget that World War 1 didn't actually become a "world" war until 1916, when the US was drawn in despite all its efforts. In 1914, US weather officials would have been in place and quite capable of collecting whatever data was available. German Uboat attacks would have been the most likely culprit of data loss during the hurricane season of 1914, as per Wikipedia:

"At the start of World War I, Germany had twenty-nine U-boats in service; in the first ten weeks, five British cruisers had been lost to them. In September, U-9 sank the obsolete British warships HMS Aboukir, Cressy and Hogue (the "Live Bait Squadron") in a single hour.

For the first few months of the war, U-boat anti-commerce actions observed the "prize rules" of the time which governed the treatment of enemy civilian ships and their occupants. On 20 October 1914, U-17 sank the first merchant ship, the SS Glitra, off Norway.[1]
"

However, much of their activity would have been directed towards ships in the NE ATL rather than in the CATL or the CAR/GOM. Even along the African coast storm information should have been relatively available at that point.

I think 1914 really WAS a very slow year. A few storms in the "blank zone", from 20N to the Azores and from the Canaries west to about 50W, may have been shortlived and thus missed. I don't think they missed much that was TS strength and affected land or shipping lanes....


Yeah I agree. In previous years they were able to detect systems very far from land as they also did in 1916 which was one of the most active hurricane seasons in the pre-satellite era. So it's quite likely that there weren't many more storms in 1914.





lol ....
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5255
872. xcool
Jim Williams need update
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
PART
OF THE ITCZ CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 11N INCLUDING
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE 1008 MB LOW IS
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 75W.


Thoughts Drak? Storm?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
Also, things have certainly picked up in my neck of the woods since this a.m.....



Hope they're not getting flooding rains in Haiti.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
There still seems to be a fair amount of moisture associated with the wave that came off Monday night. If we get anything else popping before the end of the month, I wouldn't be surprised to see it pop from this Twave. However, I doubt anything happens with it before it hits 50W....



I wish there was some way to cut off the bottom 1/2 of this image without having to resort to photoshop and imageshack...



Gotta shrink that globe Baha! Took me 20 minutes to scroll from top to bottom. I know the Earth is big, but I don't have to post the whole thing here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can't remember who made the post the other day but there was a year (no, can't remember the year either) where the first storm was July 27 and there were a total of 19 that year. I don't think I've seen any predictions (from reliable sources) that were calling for June and July to have a defined number of storms. I don't know much about cyclogenesis but I can tell you that with low resistance and a lot of fuel (heat), you get stronger storms. With that being said, with the SSTs and shear forecast, we should still see a very active season. Climatology tells us that we shouldn't have had many storms yet. The record temperatures tells us that what would have been just an invest in years past will be stronger this year. My advice-listen to those with a good tracker record and debate the subject come November.
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864. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting btwntx08:

it starts off that way later in aug/sept it will show it in the cntral gulf coast or fl


Hey Rob. :) Well we do hope anything headed your way will be weak. Seems to me that our saving grace this season may be how long it has taken things to get organized. The whole Pacific typhoon-like development was new to me. Except the rain seems to be bad with those.
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There still seems to be a fair amount of moisture associated with the wave that came off Monday night. If we get anything else popping before the end of the month, I wouldn't be surprised to see it pop from this Twave. However, I doubt anything happens with it before it hits 50W....



I wish there was some way to cut off the bottom 1/2 of this image without having to resort to photoshop and imageshack...
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Quoting spathy:


Are you talking about the energy that will come off S America in the wake of the ULL ?
If so do you think The ULL will draw the energy up from S America and form in the wake?


Are you asking me????? Spathy, I am a language professor not a meteorologist. I always thought a TUTT was an Egyptian King and a ULL was a Norwegian coookie.. Better ask one of the experts. Don't want to give wrong info.
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859. xcool
GFS & NGP shows Bonnie
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Patrap:
The Parallel GFS iz interesting
Good one, Now I understand what a parallel GFS! LOL
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Imagine that. Wasn't any possibility showing in the Caribbean earlier today.
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855. xcool
watched SW CAB
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
when do we need to start watchin that area
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853. xcool
AUG KABOOM ANY FROM TX FL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
849. xcool
helove2trac not true.give time
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Grothar:


Hate to burt your bubble, but they show that nightly on the TWC and has been posted here at least 10 times in the past 2 days. I posted it myself last night. It is also on the NHC website, slightly different version
Oh, the irony!!! lol
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847. xcool
Baltimorebirds :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
why is everything going to texas that high needs to break down
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Quoting Grothar:


...and tried, and tried........!

Good evening Grothar and others!. Even Dr.Masters tried earlier this season. I remember specifically reading that it would be a slow start. I'm enjoying this peacefully hot weather. Cause once they start coming every week, there will be sheer panic.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Good evening.


Hey Baltimore. :) Saw your comment on everything seeming to head the same way. Sure seems like it's stuck in the pattern. Although with that high bouncing back and forth, (east and west) another area's luck will run out sooner or later. Whether it be another gulf region or east coast due to a front/trough digging down at just the right time.
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Quoting Grothar:


Wrong blog for that! LOL


Dr Phil or Oprah?
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Darg-nabbit! And here I thought I had finally found something to mediate a civil outcome to the seasonal activity debate!


Wrong blog for that! LOL
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We could have:

June-1
July-1
August-5
September-5
October-5
November-1

and still have 18 named storms we are still on track for that
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Key word there is "tried". :(


...and tried, and tried........!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
While there's not much activity...
What is a hurricane's favorite sweetener?

Convection-ary sugar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all.

Some interesting discussion about 1914 going on earlier. I'd say while a few other storms may have been missed (likely 2-3, but possibly as many as 5?) I don't believe this season had a much higher ACE than is currently on record. That's because only particularly shortlived storms would have been able to completely miss the attention of mariners. Don't forget that World War 1 didn't actually become a "world" war until 1916, when the US was drawn in despite all its efforts. In 1914, US weather officials would have been in place and quite capable of collecting whatever data was available. German Uboat attacks would have been the most likely culprit of data loss during the hurricane season of 1914, as per Wikipedia:

"At the start of World War I, Germany had twenty-nine U-boats in service; in the first ten weeks, five British cruisers had been lost to them. In September, U-9 sank the obsolete British warships HMS Aboukir, Cressy and Hogue (the "Live Bait Squadron") in a single hour.

For the first few months of the war, U-boat anti-commerce actions observed the "prize rules" of the time which governed the treatment of enemy civilian ships and their occupants. On 20 October 1914, U-17 sank the first merchant ship, the SS Glitra, off Norway.[1]
"

However, much of their activity would have been directed towards ships in the NE ATL rather than in the CATL or the CAR/GOM. Even along the African coast storm information should have been relatively available at that point.

I think 1914 really WAS a very slow year. A few storms in the "blank zone", from 20N to the Azores and from the Canaries west to about 50W, may have been shortlived and thus missed. I don't think they missed much that was TS strength and affected land or shipping lanes....
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Gro, I have never seen that chart before. I'm sure you must have created in PaintShop.


You think the NHC is the only ones who have colored crayons?? Weather related blog, I mentioned the NHC.
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Quoting RuBRNded:


LOL, i think the ban stick lately got small or this would be just a posting and not a blog.


Uh, oh! I should have said all the nice weather must be keeping people off the blog. LOL Got to be careful.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi Grothar. I am just lurking and reading over what Drakoen is saying concerning development in the SW Caribbean this weekend.


Mentioned it and nobody commented. It does need to be watched, though. Drak is right.
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Quoting Grothar:
We were posting this to all the downcasters who said the season was a bust. We tried to explain the big part of the season wasn't here yet.



Key word there is "tried". :(
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We were posting this to all the downcasters who said the season was a bust. We tried to explain the big part of the season wasn't here yet.

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Quoting xcool:
woof i need food lol


Lol. I was fixing to say the slow blog is because it's supper time. Wish I could cook. Lol.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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