Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Operational Update - July 14, 2010

Today at 4:58pm
* In preparation for commencement of the well integrity test, the middle ram has been closed and a leak has been detected in the choke line of the 3 ram stack. It has been isolated and will be repaired prior to starting the test.

http://www.facebook.com/notes/bp-america/operational-update-july-14-2010/446985013412
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8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN

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Quoting btwntx08:

yep were still not of the woods yet even if we got 2 systems already crazy huh


Yeah y'all are still in the game as well even after being visited before. Unfortunately sometimes storms do hit a place over and over. I've done (am doing) a study on Texas landfalls and their origin. Oddly enough the TX/MX and TX/LA areas have taken a wallop in the past. Whether due to direct hits or the generosity of our neighbors. Lol. I'll have to get that all together soon and make a blog about it. :)
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Quoting Bordonaro:

When the Azores/Bermuda High weakens, when the SAL decreases, we're going to have a real problem.


I know, the SAL is forcast to lessen this month. Depends on where the High decides to park itself over the active part of the season. Does not look good at them moment. I really do believe we are in a lull that shall be changing in a few weeks time.
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920. xcool
af wave train toot toot toot toot oh yeah
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


FIMZ was just started on July 9, so it has little history. The "Z" indicates it uses the physics that are in the parallel GFS.

FIM Homepage


No wonder they are similar in some respect
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29918
Quoting Grothar:


They're beginning to stack up fast Bord. Even though it is early in the season. It is unusual to see such large waves emerge off the coast, in such rapid succession.

When the Azores/Bermuda High weakens, when the SAL decreases, we're going to have a real problem.
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Good Morning all..... 2 Question's
1. Was this lull expected but most people here or did they think it was going to be 1 week 1 storm?

2. Which came first, the chicken, or the egg?
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Quoting DestinJeff:


IN YOUR FACE, Space Coyote!


Anyone know how to post a LOOP? I now know how to do a picture but now a flash loop???? Email me please
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Has this model done well so far this year?


FIMZ was just started on July 9, so it has little history. The "Z" indicates it uses the physics that are in the parallel GFS.

FIM Homepage
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Reminds me of 1874 in a lot of ways. you, too, Grothar?


Wouldn't know Jeff, was in Switzerland at the time, helping write their constitution. We didn't pay attention to the tropics much.
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910. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
Quoting DestinJeff:


I'll see your Africa and Atlantic, and raise you the Northern Hemisphere:




Oh, yeah. How about the entire Atlantic basin!! (I'd animate it, but I don't know how)


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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Has this model done well so far this year?


It did so-so with 95L.
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907. xcool
HWRF shows low in sw cab too
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
Getting ugly in the Midwest//



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Quoting Bordonaro:
879, Destin and Grothar, looks like Africa is hosting "the attack of the honking tropical disturbances"!


They're beginning to stack up fast Bord. Even though it is early in the season. It is unusual to see such large waves emerge off the coast, in such rapid succession.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Add Experimental FIMZ to models developing a Caribbean system.

Link


Has this model done well so far this year?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23606
901. xcool
DestinJeff lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
899. xcool
keep eye on sw cab no lies
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Add Experimental FIMZ to models developing a Caribbean system.


Very similar to the GFS
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29918
897. xcool
1008 mb sw cab
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Hopefully most storms will out to sea.But for some reason I don't see that happening.Xcool are things going well.


I don't see that either. :( I do believe that when the CV season starts in earnest it will lead to heartache for somebody. Hopefully though some will recurve or shear will step in. Something...

UGH! Computer malfunctions AGAIN!! Taking 4ever for me 2 post. and my "O" and "P" buttons won't work.
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Hmmm.... also look at the TAFB analysis for 00Z...



That wave is riding way up over the CVs, and even the one before it is trying to push up against that big powerful AB high. I think a real hero in the Twave surpression is that high, which is keeping storms south so coriolis doesn't impact as much.... plus supporting sufficient dry air to disrupt any formation tendencies....
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893. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
Add Experimental FIMZ to models developing a Caribbean system.

Link
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879, Destin and Grothar, looks like Africa is hosting "the attack of the honking tropical disturbances"!
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Update BP says test on cap now under way

After a day of delay, BP is again prepared to test a new cap fitted over the gushing Gulf of Mexico oil leak.
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Im working on my new forecast now... Having difficulty uploading due to the HD version of my maps.. They are actual size..

at the bottom they read 1 mile = 1 mile..

Hope I dont crash wunderground... Hmmmmmm
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884. xcool
i think 3 named for july
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
I admit I kinda miss their old viewer, which would show u from just E/W of the CV islands but without the whole rest of south america dragged in... used to cover the NATL pretty much away to curviture...
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New wave about to emerge off of Africa.

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For our friends in the Upper MS Valley, mixed news :o)..

The good news, the tornado threat is winding down, only a couple, maybe a few isolated tornadoes are expected the rest of the evening.
The cold front moves through the area from west to east overnight, slowly dropping humidity and temps closer to normal.

The bad news, the threat is now predominately straight line winds of 50 to 70 MPH, torrential rainfall, large hail for several hours to come.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.