Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 976 - 926

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Evening all....quiet at the moment in tropics.but Im afraid by the end of July into August that will change
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WinterAnaIystwx13:
Been raining here for a while.
photos.
Link

OOPS, wrong link :o), something about virus software.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Yes. i agree. Just seems to me that these waves have Florida in sight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


Looks like someone pressed the switch tonight....





.... and this could be on the menu soon at this rate.




Yep! I think that the CV season is about to start...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
968. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting AussieStorm:

We are battling through a cold winter, all have colds or just blocked noses. Drought has still got it's hands deep in Australia, though some places are getting rain, just not enough to change there classification.

I hope you all get to feeling better :o)! We have 97F temps here is Dallas, TX with a 107F heat index earlier today. Wanna trade??
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


FIMZ was just started on July 9, so it has little history. The "Z" indicates it uses the physics that are in the parallel GFS.

FIM Homepage


Thanks for another great resource NRT. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


IN YOUR FACE, Space Coyote!
I like this satellite feed,how bout sharing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


Looks like someone pressed the switch tonight....





.... and this could be on the menu soon at this rate.





i would re move that if you dont want a banned
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DehSoBe:
I live in SFL and I think today is just a small taste of things to come. Call me a WISHCASTER if you want......and maybe I am....but.. the waves are lined up in this direction, and today is just the beginning.

Remember the Azores/Bermuda High and TUTT L pressure areas play a huge role on where these disturbances go, whether or not they develop and how much shear is around.

I may say we all need to hope for the best, we will be getting busy in the next week or two.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:

Nah, we'll have about 4 TC's going at a time come late Aug-mid Sept.

How are you and your family doing? Has the drought ended in Australia?

We are battling through a cold winter, all have colds or just blocked noses. Drought has still got it's hands deep in Australia, though some places are getting rain, just not enough to change there classification.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
960. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CONSON (T1002)
9:00 AM JST July 15 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In The South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Conson (990 hPa) located at 16.2N 115.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 18.3N 111.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 19.7N 110.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 21.0N 109.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Dispersant ROV

Skandi ROV 1
Yea. I just looked at your link and was going to comment on that cam. Looks like something's up, and not good. Some rockin' and rollin' maybe going on. Not good.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5648
957. SLU
Quoting Bordonaro:

Oh my!! We have a Collard green crow caster now!!


lol
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
I live in SFL and I think today is just a small taste of things to come. Call me a WISHCASTER if you want......and maybe I am....but.. the waves are lined up in this direction, and today is just the beginning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


Looks like someone pressed the switch tonight....





.... and this could be on the menu soon at the rate.


Oh my!! We have a Collard green crow caster now!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Or K-caster
Bluelightspecialcaster!!!

Attention K-cater Bluelight-special-casters, we have a sale on Atlantic region hurricane tracking maps, with number 2 pencils and erasers on aisle 4 with no waiting, for only $6.99, as the entire WU blog runs over the K Mart clerk :O)!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
how about bordom buster caster.The solution Nfl training camp starts in 2 weeks.And for all the bored teen casters on the blog, the solution? nfl play 60 lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Question 1 is a general question, I think most people that come on this blog was expecting 1 storm a week when NOAA said 14-23 named storms in there seasonal forecast

Nah, we'll have about 4 TC's going at a time come late Aug-mid Sept.

How are you and your family doing? Has the drought ended in Australia?
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Bordonaro:

OMG, you're a Kmart Atlantic caster"!


Or K-caster
Bluelightspecialcaster!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


1) Historically frequency does not ramp up untill the beginning of August.

2) Acording to some analysis of protein, the egg. Got it backwards, duh the chicken.

Question 1 is a general question, I think most people that come on this blog was expecting 1 storm a week when NOAA said 14-23 named storms in there seasonal forecast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Eagle101:


Greetings Patrap,

I thought there was concern about the environmental impacts of the dispersant they were using. I guess they are using it anyway? If you have a link to what the concerns were, could you please post. As always, thanks for keeping us all updated. Take care and have a great evening.

Very Respectfully,

Jon


hiya Jon,..

The EPA iz allowing the dispersant usage and there is still much controversy as to it keeping the Oil suspended in the water column..

As well as its Health effects on Humans and wildlife.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Baltimorebird:
Atlantic looks like Kmart... DEAD

OMG, you're a "Kmart Atlantic caster"!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Patrap:
Dispersant ROV


Greetings Patrap,

I thought there was concern about the environmental impacts of the dispersant they were using. I guess they are using it anyway? If you have a link to what the concerns were, could you please post. As always, thanks for keeping us all updated. Take care and have a great evening.

Very Respectfully,

Jon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:


Similar track to Alex and TD 2?


Identical, yes. Genesis is similar to Ida in terms of location though. Looks small too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24486
Quoting antonio28:
Good evening,

The CV wave is staring to organize this evening, the CATL is very favorable for develpoment, high SST, low sher and the dry air is almost gone. The fact that this wave is holding and building convection reaching ths 30w bears watching this closely. The Models does not develop thiis wave into a TC. But you know that in weather things changes quickly.


Yep (the bolded part)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
#938, The folks in the SW Caribbean region are making a run on garlic, silver spikes and sledgehammers.

They are our new "vampire-killer tropical disturbance casters"
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Good evening,

The CV wave is staring to organize this evening, the CATL is very favorable for develpoment, high SST, low sher and the dry air is almost gone. The fact that this wave is holding and building convection reaching ths 30w bears watching this closely. The Models does not develop thiis wave into a TC. But you know that in weather things changes quickly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Most models are developing a Western Caribbean system.


Similar track to Alex and TD 2?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


your keyboard is down with OP ... um ... P


Lol. Great! Now it's stuck in my head. Gotta go download it. ITUNES says thank you. Lol.

SmileyCentral.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z GFS parallel 48 hr


52 hrs

Shows an organizing low/TD in the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24486
Quoting BahaHurican:
Also, things have certainly picked up in my neck of the woods since this a.m.....


...Evening Baha,

I thought we were going to get subjected to another deluge, as I did laundry today...

but I got away with it. No rain yet today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Baltimorebird:
Atlantic looks like Kmart... DEAD


Most models are developing a Western Caribbean system.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24486


by Maya Rodriguez / Eyewitness News

wwltv.com

Posted on July 14, 2010 at 6:23 PM

FIFI ISLAND, La. -- The oil spill comes at a time when Louisiana's storm-battered coast was already in peril. Now, some coastal restoration projects already underway are in danger of falling victim to the spill.

Just north of the state's only inhabited barrier island sits one of Louisiana's many uninhabited islands -- Fifi Island. Made up of marsh grasses and black mangroves, Fifi Island provides much-needed storm protection for its neighbor to the south, Grand Isle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good Morning all..... 2 Question's
1. Was this lull expected but most people here or did they think it was going to be 1 week 1 storm?

2. Which came first, the chicken, or the egg?


1) Historically frequency does not ramp up untill the beginning of August.

2) Acording to some analysis of protein, the egg. Got it backwards, duh the chicken.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274
Quoting Grothar:


Wouldn't know Jeff, was in Switzerland at the time, helping write their constitution. We didn't pay attention to the tropics much.


I was in a row boat plotting tracks... They called us the Hurricane rowers... we had upsounds that floated up on ballons (we never actually got any of our readings back however) eventually we ran out of budget and patience..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
931. xcool
Drakoen:


anynewsupdate sw cab ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Dispersant ROV

Skandi ROV 1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


I know, the SAL is forcast to lessen this month. Depends on where the High decides to park itself over the active part of the season. Does not look good at them moment. I really do believe we are in a lull that shall be changing in a few weeks time.

I agree. We're going to go from bored to death to scared out of our wits in about 2 weeks!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Live feeds from the Gulf of Mexico ROVs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


No wonder they are similar in some respect


Yep, but the parallel gfs does not develop the Atlantic system the FIMZ does.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11274

Viewing: 976 - 926

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.