Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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1024. Grothar
2 days old, but shows the waves.

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1023. Patrap
.."Banned on the Run"..
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Evening Storm....I was in earlier seems there was a worrisom troll on the loose then lol
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1020. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:


Where you been Keeper?
banned to the land of chataltraz
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Quoting Chicklit:


So is it time for this?!
UTubeRemix
Not... quite... yet....
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1018. xcool
hmmm
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1017. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
evening storm
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1016. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
evening wunderbloggers
blog update complete
good to be back


Where you been Keeper?
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Quoting brla61:

Hi Aussie! that sounds miserable.. Sending you some heat and Vicks vaporubs straight from the boot

Thanks
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1011. Grothar
Quoting DestinJeff:


it is just from intellicast.com


Mind shrinking your globes, there Jeff? Taking up half the blog. Never should have showed you that site Eumet site.
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1010. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
evening wunderbloggers
blog update complete
good to be back
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About Dr. Master's blog entry above...

I'm not really sure where he's seeing the GFS forecasting an A/B high of above average strength. The GFS has the high almost constantly at 1024mb through the period, which is weaker than normal.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
1008. Grothar
Quoting brla61:
Southeast La, sir. How about you?


SE, FL Ft. Lauderdale. Hot here, too! Broke the most heat records this year. Coldest temperatures and hottest all in the same year. Guess you had the same.
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Quoting blsealevel:
Wow. Didn't realize u could see the ITCZ so clearly in the wave data....
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1005. wxhatt
Quote from Accuweather Tropical,

"Thunderstorms are starting to wrap up about 350 miles southwest of the southwest coast of Mexico and a depression could form within the next day or so. Dry air and shear continue to plague the Atlantic."
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1003. Patrap
July 14, 2010, 11:50 am
A Warm Atlantic Stokes Hurricane Fears
By JOHN COLLINS RUDOLF


Satellite measurements show water temperatures throughout the band are between one to two and a half degrees Fahrenheit above a recent 30-year average, according to data from Climate Central, a climate news and research organization. Data from NASA shows similar above-average temperatures.

It's anomalous, said David D. Adamec, a NASA oceanographer. In the likely hurricane formation areas, it's warmer than normal.
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Quoting antonio28:



Yep! I think that the CV season is about to start...


So is it time for this?!
UTubeRemix
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1000. brla61
Southeast La, sir. How about you?
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Quoting brla61:

Hi Aussie! that sounds miserable.. Sending you some heat and Vicks vaporubs straight from the boot
Quoting brla61:

Hi Aussie! that sounds miserable.. Sending you some heat and Vicks vaporubs straight from the boot


Where are you br? Not address, just region will do. LOL
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998. xcool
nice wave at 30w
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974. Patrap...

U can see the recent Twave just entering the image in the lower right corner - and the dry air / dust retreating...
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995. SLU


nice curvature at 10n 30w
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4899
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Quoting AussieStorm:

We are battling through a cold winter, all have colds or just blocked noses. Drought has still got it's hands deep in Australia, though some places are getting rain, just not enough to change there classification.

Hi Aussie! that sounds miserable.. Sending you some heat and Vicks vaporubs straight from the boot
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991. xcool
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Quoting DestinJeff:
U stole my image! [Gasp!]

LOL

Yeah that sure doesn't look like it's fizzlin' just yet, now does it?
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989. SLU


Very weak circulation at 11n 43w. Nice breeze with the surface trough to the north too.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4899
988. xcool
96e no hope
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Quoting Baltimorebird:
Looks like the Navy Xsat is predicting a dry inclusion of the back cumulus ridge. Not good.


what does this mean?
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No problem. I really thought we would get it today, but am happy we didn't


edit:




...looks like we still might though.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


...Evening Baha,

I thought we were going to get subjected to another deluge, as I did laundry today...

but I got away with it. No rain yet today.
EVening, CRS. Unfortunately, I couldn't do the laundry gig due to overcast skies and rain... in fact got caught outside by a deluge a few minutes ago and had to wait until it tapered off... just saw ur comment as a result.
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Anyone think Bonnie will form by July 31st? I think after August arrives we'll see things really ramp up...im goin with 16 8 4 for my numbers..
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Quoting Bordonaro:

I hope you all get to feeling better :o)! We have 97F temps here is Dallas, TX with a 107F heat index earlier today. Wanna trade??

Yes please
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979. xcool
<< i;m keep eye on sw cab
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Yea. I just looked at your link and was going to comment on that cam. Looks like something's up, and not good. Some rockin' and rollin' maybe going on. Not good.


Nothing to worry about. See twitter
http://twitter.com/bp_america

.In prep for starting integrity test, leak detected in choke line. Was isolated & will be repaired before starting test: http://bit.ly/aDhF1D
about 1 hour ago via web
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Quoting Patrap:
Deadliest Catch: Phil Harris Jazz Funeral in New Orleans


Awe. I saw some of that last night. Can't believe he died. I know I'm going to need another case of tissues for next weeks show too. :(
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.