Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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1076. bappit
1072

So what does that tell us about what's happening weather-wise? Not to sound like an intelligent posterior (I can't help it), but what's different from last week and will be different from next week?
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1075. Patrap
Climate Diagnostics Center

Advancing understanding and prediction of climate variability



Specific goals within CDC include:

* Identifying key processes that contribute to extreme, short-term climate events, such as major droughts and floods.
* Improving understanding and predictions of important climate phenomena such as ENSO and their links to high-impact weather events.
* Improving monitoring and analyses of climate variability through surface and satellite observations and the incorporation of such observations into climate models.
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"Changes in the atmosphere, specifically atmospheric pressure around the world, and the motions of the winds that may be related to such climate signals as El Niño are strong enough that their effect is observed in the Earth's rotation signal," said David A. Salstein, an atmospheric scientist from Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., of Lexington, Mass., who led a recent study.

From year to year, winds and air pressure patterns change, causing different forces to act on the solid Earth. During El Niño years, for example, the rotation of the Earth may slow ever so slightly because of stronger winds, increasing the length of a day by a fraction of a millisecond (thousandth of a second).
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
1073. SLU
Quoting StormW:


It may be. Close up IR2 and AVN didn't really show too much right now...may be trying to get a little spin going. Vorticity is mainly at the 850mb level, and spread out. There is excellent convergence there at the surface however. Look what it's headed for.







That's a very powerful upper high. I wonder if it will persist.
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1072. Patrap
To understand the concept of angular momentum, visualize the Earth spinning in space. Given Earth's overall mass and its rotation, it contains a certain amount of angular momentum. When an additional force acting at a distance from the Earth's rotational axis occurs, referred to as a torque, such as changes in surface winds, or the distribution of high and low pressure patterns, especially near mountains, it can act to change the rate of the Earth's rotation or even the direction of the rotational axis. Because of the law of "conservation of angular momentum," small but detectable changes in the Earth's rotation and those in the rotation of the atmosphere are linked. The conservation of angular momentum is a law of physics that states the total angular momentum of a rotating object with no outside force remains constant regardless of changes within the system.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
1071. bappit
Quoting StormW:


It may be. Close up IR2 and AVN didn't really show too much right now...may be trying to get a little spin going. Vorticity is mainly at the 850mb level, and spread out. There is excellent convergence there at the surface however. Look what it's headed for.






King TUTT.
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1070. 7544
is that 30k of sheer ahead of the anti cyc. stgrom posted trying here lol
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1069. bappit
1060

"Tell me, what can you make out of this?"
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1067. 7544
yeap notice that jeff still watching the area around the bahammas alos looks like it could develope or just fall apart im 50 50 on that area thanks for the answer
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1066. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
Quoting StormW:


It may be. Close up IR2 and AVN didn't really show too much right now...may be trying to get a little spin going. Vorticity is mainly at the 850mb level, and spread out. There is excellent convergence there at the surface however. Look what it's headed for.







Thats the biggest anticyclone i've ever seen!
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1063. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
1061. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1060. Patrap


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IRLoopEatl

vintage rollin'
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1058. bappit
Is the monsoon over in the Caribbean?
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1055. 7544
Quoting Jeff9641:
Where are all the downcasters now. Things look like they are ready to pop. Also, note how every wave comes across FL over the next couple of weeks. This pattern does not bode well for FL at all. THe wave next Monday and Tuesday looks intriging for FL.


what do you see jeff care to share is it tropical tc for so fla on those days tia
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Jim Cantore has just mention Dr Masters on TWC. Talking about the SAL and suoer warm SST.
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BRB
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1052. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
evening wunderbloggers
blog update complete
good to be back

Where did you go? work??
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Quoting Grothar:
Grothar, there's something really off with this map that shows ALL of the land masses to the south and west of the Bahamas getting hit, but not the Bahamas....
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I know, blsealevel. It's the March of the African Waves. Good grief. We'll see what tomorrow brings when tomorrow arrives.
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I doubt any of the waves coming off of Africa will form into anything right now. Things will ramp up in August and September. Early CV-casters!!! :)
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I really like that intellicast site. One of two-three "new" sites I've found to be of excellent quality this season.

I think it's the pulling together of all the world data in one location that I like.
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1037. brla61
Good evening Stormw!
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am looking forword too AUGS


and am being a wishcaster
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1034. xcool
i got 48hr ban haha
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1031. brla61
Quoting Grothar:


SE, FL Ft. Lauderdale. Hot here, too! Broke the most heat records this year. Coldest temperatures and hottest all in the same year. Guess you had the same.

Yes, it's been entirely too hot!Somethings's gotta give.I suppose nature will take care of that soon enough,though.
For the moment,i'm living it up I say let the ac rip!Hope we get a cut on our energy bills this season.lol
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1029. Grothar
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According to someone on here the MJO is about to go into upward oscillation and there is some SAL mixed in with them, so maybe nothing will come of these waves after they roll off CV.
Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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