Typhoon Conson kills 18 in the Philippines; record SSTs continue in the Atlantic

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:27 PM GMT on July 14, 2010

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Tropical Storm Conson hit the Philippines' main island of Luzon yesterday as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Conson was briefly the season's first typhoon on Monday, when it intensified to an 80 mph Category 1 storm. Conson is being blamed for at least 18 deaths in the Philippines, with 57 other people missing. The storm caused an extended power outage to the entire island of Luzon. Conson is headed towards a second landfall later this week in China, but should not intensify into a typhoon again because of the presence of 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. Conson is only the second named storm in what has been an unusually quiet Northwest Pacific typhoon season. According to Digital Typhoon, an average season has six named storms by mid-July.


Figure 1. Tropical Storm Conson as captured by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite at 4:55 UTC July 13, 2010. At the time, Conson was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

June SSTs in the tropical Atlantic set a new record
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes had their warmest June on record, according to an analysis I did of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center. SST data goes back to 1850, though there is much missing data before 1910 and during WWI and WWII. SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were 1.33°C above average during June, beating the previous record of 1.26°C set in June 2005. June 2010 is the fifth straight record warm month in the tropical Atlantic, and the third warmest anomaly measured for any month in history. The only warmer anomalies were 1.51°C and 1.46°C, set in May 2010 and April 2010, respectively. As I explained in detail in a post on record February SSTs in the Atlantic, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs, though global warming and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) also play a role. The magnitude of the anomaly has fallen over the past month, since trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to slightly above-normal speeds. These higher trade wind speeds are due to the fact that the Bermuda-Azores High has had above-normal surface pressures over the past month. The Bermuda-Azores High and its associated trade winds are forecast to remain at above-average strength during the next two weeks, according to the latest runs of the GFS model. This means that Atlantic SST anomalies will continue to fall during the remainder of July. However, keep in mind that we are talking about anomalies--the ocean will continue to warm until its usual early September peak in temperature, and it is likely that we will have the warmest or second warmest SSTs on record over the tropical Atlantic during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August through mid-October.


Figure 2. The departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for July 12, 2010. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

The tropics are quiet
There are no threat areas to discuss in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model is calling for a strong tropical disturbance to form off the Nicaragua coast this weekend. If this disturbance forms, it would move west-northwest and bring heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras early next week.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
that is true kmanislander but if you put that in loop you will see that the dry air is quickly disapating


From simply observing what pertains across the basin now there is really no sign of any pending development. My comments are confined to the next 14 days, that's all.
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Evening all, Just popped in to see what condition the conditions were in.

If it's all the same to you guys, I kinda like a quiet spell. I know the storms get exciting, and back before I owned a house they were exciting to me as well. They are still exciting, but now on a more immediate and direct level than when I was a teenager.

Bourbon is over by the ice bucket, please help yourselves...
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Quoting blsealevel:


You can see some of SAL get wraped up in the low off of africa in this shot.
This imagery supports something I was saying earlier on the weekend about the first wave bringing its own wave of dust with it. Also I noticed with both of these waves that stronger vorticity seemed to be at the northern, dust-embedded end - in fact IIRC, one or both had Lows analysed at their northern ends even prior to their egress from the continent. Heat lows? Anyway, that's why I'm watching these waves w/ interest, but not expecting much in the way of formation from them before they reach the Car, or at least 55W...
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1120. Grothar
Quoting BahaHurican:
Grothar, there's something really off with this map that shows ALL of the land masses to the south and west of the Bahamas getting hit, but not the Bahamas....


I tried to move them all away from you. Doesn´t that make you happy? I don't know, I post em, I don't write em.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Bigger waves won't be affected by this. I posted a link from NASA earlier explaining this concept.


I agree somewhat with that, but in my mind
it seems that it might aid in the heat content though I'm not sure why?
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that is true kmanislander but if you put that in loop you will see that the dry air is quickly disapating
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
Quoting WildWillyFL:
Am I wrong to wonder why everyone keeps saying that the season has been quiet so far? While there has been only one name storm, there have been two that were right on the bubble. A slight shift of 30 to 60 miles over water for both of these developing storms and the next named storm would be Danielle.


By quiet I mean in line with climatology. June and early July are not supposed to be very active but "quiet" is not anomalous. It is the norm.
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Am I wrong to wonder why everyone keeps saying that the season has been quiet so far? While there has been only one name storm, there have been two that were right on the bubble. A slight shift of 30 to 60 miles over water for both of these developing storms and the next named storm would be Danielle.
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1114. beell
GFS 850mb Theta e Anomaly
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1112. SLU

Quoting StormW:


Here's the 18Z shear forecast out to 78 hours...about the time that wave should enter around 62W



Here's the Zonal Shear for the same time:



looks like some busy days lie ahead ....
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5132
1110. 7544
double hmmmmm
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1109. xcool
hmm
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Quoting Tazmanian:



so that dos not mean evere where has dry air


I never said that was the case. My point simply is that once the SAL is gone it will take a couple of waves to restore high moisture content generally. That will take time, a week or two probably.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf almost back to what they were before Alex...warming in the Central Atlantic...

June 25 2010:



July 13 2010:



Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential not there yet, but certainly building...

June 25 2010:



July 13 2010:

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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

I haven't been on much lately due to quiet conditions. Based on what I am seeing out there the conditions do not look favourable for anything to spin up within the next week or so and it could be early August before we see the next named storm.

The NOGAPS keeps insisting on something in the SW Caribbean but over the past several weeks nothing the NOGAPS has predicted in that area has come to pass. Consequently,I would be surprised if the development it is calling for in the SW Caribbean was to materialise this weekend.

Throughout the entire basin from the Caribbean to the West coast of Africa the convection is spotty at best with marginal conditions aloft and SAL putting a damper across the MDR.

Not that I am complaining of course. Long may it be quiet.
A week from now, if it held together with any integrity and continued its current speed and heading, the wave currently at 30W would be in the central Car, more or less in the vicinity of JA....
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Quoting kmanislander:
Take a look at the big picture. Most of the MDR is dry to the North of 10 degrees.




so that dos not mean evere where has dry air
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Quoting StormW:
Back shortly.

Take your time, nothing to see here.
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Take a look at the big picture. Most of the MDR is dry to the North of 10 degrees.

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You can see some of SAL get wraped up in the low off of africa in this shot.
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there is a lot of moisture no dry air found here


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Quoting Baltimorebird:


Wasn't that a Tina Turner song?


Not quite. That was " what's love got to do with it ".
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Quoting kmanislander:


Keep laughing. So far the so-called "perfect conditions" that were going to create the season to remember have only produced a typically slow start. What do maps have to do with that ?



you this dont look at them



wind shear is low and SAL has weaked has it is not has strong has it was befor so it will give any wave out there a ch has we do not have has strong of a SAL like 2 days a go


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Quoting Tazmanian:
wind shear is vary favourable and SAL is weaking some has well


Once the SAL abates the air remains dry. It takes a couple of waves to restore the moisture content. That does not happen overnight.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the only thing kmanislander is that its not only the NOGAPS model predicting this SW Carib AOI its the GFS, NAM, ECMWF, WRF, UKMET, CMC(TO LESSER EXTENT)and maybe one or two more that I don't remeber


Ah, comfort in a crowd. This is Wednesday night so we will know soon enough won't we ?
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1093. bappit
1082

Lot's of interesting gee whiz type of stuff at that site. This plot looked interesting to me.



I'll guess that the strong negative anomalies are from cold cloud tops. The positive anomalies don't seem to be as widespread.

Edit: I think it shows the heat wave in Europe.
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1090. 7544
yeap right taz imo something could pop up at any hour
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Quoting Tazmanian:





i dont think you look at maps lol


Keep laughing. So far the so-called "perfect conditions" that were going to create the season to remember have only produced a typically slow start. What do maps have to do with that ?
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the only thing kmanislander is that its not only the NOGAPS model predicting this SW Carib AOI its the GFS, NAM, ECMWF, WRF, UKMET, CMC(TO LESSER EXTENT)and maybe one or two more that I don't remeber
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12019
things are comeing vary favourable
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wind shear is vary favourable and SAL is weaking some has well
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening all

I haven't been on much lately due to quiet conditions. Based on what I am seeing out there the conditions do not look favourable for anything to spin up within the next week or so and it could be early August before we see the next named storm.

The NOGAPS keeps insisting on something in the SW Caribbean but over the past several weeks nothing the NOGAPS has predicted in that area has come to pass. Consequently,I would be surprised if the development it is calling for in the SW Caribbean was to materialise this weekend.

Throughout the entire basin from the Caribbean to the West coast of Africa the convection is spotty at best with marginal conditions aloft and SAL putting a damper across the MDR.

Not that I am complaining of course. Long may it be quiet.





i dont think you look at maps lol
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1082. Patrap
Quoting bappit:
1072

So what does that tell us about what's happening weather-wise? Not to sound like an intelligent posterior (I can't help it), but what's different from last week and will be different from next week?


See the Link hereAs we learn more about the interaction of the atmosphere and oceans the wealth of accumulated knowledge becomes a veritable alphabet soup of acronyms. This page is designed to serve as a jumping off point for information and data about some of these interactions.
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1079. 7544
jeff this seems to agree with you check it out

Link
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Good evening all

I haven't been on much lately due to quiet conditions. Based on what I am seeing out there the conditions do not look favourable for anything to spin up within the next week or so and it could be early August before we see the next named storm.

The NOGAPS keeps insisting on something in the SW Caribbean but over the past several weeks nothing the NOGAPS has predicted in that area has come to pass. Consequently,I would be surprised if the development it is calling for in the SW Caribbean was to materialise this weekend.

Throughout the entire basin from the Caribbean to the West coast of Africa the convection is spotty at best with marginal conditions aloft and SAL putting a damper across the MDR.

Not that I am complaining of course. Long may it be quiet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1076. bappit
1072

So what does that tell us about what's happening weather-wise? Not to sound like an intelligent posterior (I can't help it), but what's different from last week and will be different from next week?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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