More pre-season predictions of a very active Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on July 12, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

Hello again, it's Jeff Masters back again after a week away. Well, the past week was a wicked hot time to be in New England, where I was vacationing, and I certainly didn't expect to see 98° temperatures in Maine like I experienced! Fortunately, it's not hard to find cold water to plunge into in New England. Thankfully, the tropics were relatively quiet during my week away, and remain so today. There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss at present, and none of the reliable computer models is forecasting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model does show a strong tropical disturbance developing near the waters offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras this weekend, though. With not much to discuss in the present-day tropics, let's take a look at more pre-season predictions of the coming Atlantic hurricane season.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Penn State
Dr. Michael Mann and graduate student Michael Kozar of Penn State University (PSU) issued their 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 28. Their forecast utilizes a statistical model to predict storm counts, based on historical activity. Their model is predicting 19 to 28 named storms in the Atlantic, with a best estimate of 23 storms. The forecast assumes that record warm SSTs will continue in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes. Dr. Mann has issued two previous forecasts, in 2007 and 2009. The 2007 forecast was perfect--15 storms were predicted, and 15 storms occurred. The 2009 forecast called for 11.5 named storms, and 9 occurred (the 2009 forecast also contained the caveat that if a strong El Niño event occurred, only 9.5 named storms were expected; a strong El Niño did indeed occur.) So, the 2009 forecast also did well.


2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from the UK GloSea model
A major new player in the seasonal Atlantic hurricane season forecast game is here--the UK Met Office, which issued its first Atlantic hurricane season forecast in 2007. The UK Met Office is the United Kingdom's version of our National Weather Service. Their 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for 20 named storms, with a 70% chance the number will range between 13 and 27. They predict an ACE index of 204, which is about double the average ACE index.

I have high hopes for the UK Met Office forecast, since it is based on a promising new method--running a dynamical computer model of the global atmosphere-ocean system. The CSU forecast from Phil Klotzbach is based on statistical patterns of hurricane activity observed from past years. These statistical techniques do not work very well when the atmosphere behaves in ways it has not behaved in the past. The UK Met Office forecast avoids this problem by using a global computer forecast model--the GloSea model (short for GLObal SEAsonal model). GloSea is based on the HadGEM3 model--one of the leading climate models used to formulate the influential UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. GloSea subdivides the atmosphere into a 3-dimensional grid 0.86° in longitude, 0.56° in latitude (about 62 km), and up to 85 levels in the vertical. This atmospheric model is coupled to an ocean model of even higher resolution. The initial state of the atmosphere and ocean as of June 1, 2010 were fed into the model, and the mathematical equations governing the motions of the atmosphere and ocean were solved at each grid point every few minutes, progressing out in time until the end of November (yes, this takes a colossal amount of computer power!) It's well-known that slight errors in specifying the initial state of the atmosphere can cause large errors in the forecast. This "sensitivity to initial conditions" is taken into account by making many model runs, each with a slight variation in the starting conditions which reflect the uncertainty in the initial state. This generates an "ensemble" of forecasts and the final forecast is created by analyzing all the member forecasts of this ensemble. Forty-two ensemble members were generated for this year's UK Met Office forecast. The researchers counted how many tropical storms formed during the six months the model ran to arrive at their forecast of twenty named storms for the remainder of this hurricane season. Of course, the exact timing and location of these twenty storms are bound to differ from what the model predicts, since one cannot make accurate forecasts of this nature so far in advance.

The grid used by GloSea is fine enough to see hurricanes form, but is too coarse to properly handle important features of these storms. This lack of resolution results in the model not generating the right number of storms. This discrepancy is corrected by looking back at time for the years 1989-2002, and coming up with correction factors (i.e., "fudge" factors) that give a reasonable forecast.

The future of seasonal hurricane forecasts using global dynamical computer models is bright. Their first three forecasts have been good. Last year the Met Office forecast was for 6 named storms and an ACE index of 60. The actual number of storms was 9, and the ACE index was 53. Their 2008 forecast called for 15 named storms, and 15 were observed. Their 2007 forecast called for 10 named storms in July - November, and 13 formed. A group using the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECWMF) model is also experimenting with some promising techniques using that model. Models like the GloSea and ECMWF will only get better as increased computer power and better understanding of the atmosphere are incorporated, necessitating less use of "fudge" factors based on historical hurricane patterns. If human-caused climate change amplifies in coming decades, statistical seasonal hurricane forecasts like the CSU's may be limited in how much they can be improved, since the atmosphere may move into new patterns very unlike what we've seen in the past 100 years. It is my expectation that ten years from now, seasonal hurricane forecasts based on global computer models such as the UK Met Office's GloSea will regularly out-perform the statistical forecasts issued by CSU.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Florida State University
Last year, another group using dynamical computer forecast models entered the seasonal hurricane prediction fray. A group at Florida State University led by Dr. Tim LaRow introduced a new model called COAPS, which is funded by a 5-year, $6.2 million grant from NOAA. This year, the COAPS model is calling for 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes. Last year's prediction by the COAPS model was for 8 named storms and 4 hurricanes, which was very close to the observed 9 named storms and 3 hurricanes.

Summary of 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
Here are the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecasters:

23 named storms: PSU statistical model
20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model
18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU dynamical model
10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology

Only four hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as nineteen named storms, so 5 out of 6 of these pre-season forecasts are calling for a top-five busiest season in history. One thing is for sure, though--this year won't be able to compete with the Hurricane Season of 2005 for early season activity--that year already had five named storm by this point in the season, including two major hurricanes (Dennis and Emily.)

Tropical Storm Conson threatens the Philippines
Weather456 has an interesting post on why the Western Pacific typhoon season has been exceptionally inactive this year. It looks like we'll have out first typhoon of the Western Pacific season later today, since Tropical Storm Conson appears poised to undergo rapid intensification, and should strike the main Philippine island of Luzon as a Category 1 or 2 typhoon.

Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 764 - 714

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61Blog Index

Goldie ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
762. SLU
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I think too many people (especially the young ones) believe that it is just a video game and there are no real consequences to these forces of nature. When Charlie blew through (I was 37) I had 4 kids, a new born, a 2 year old, a 7year old and a 9 year old. I live in central fl. and when you feel the immediate danger and the winds top out at over 100mph you will know then that it is not a game. The hurrican force winds lasted over 5 hours. I feared first for my children and wife then myself. I was terrified but refused to show it to my family. We were lucky! My house sustained about $12,000 in damages (of course just under my hurricane deductable) So you folks that beg for a storm remember that it can be you and you might not be able to turn off the game and go to sleep..

There are many here who have experienced much worse than I have... but when the storm comes at you .. once it starts you cant restart and change your mind and leave...


Very well said. As much as we all like to watch hurricanes form, it's still a matter of life and death and we must all feel for those victims of hurricanes and those who lose loved ones every year as a result of them before we wish for every wave coming off Africa to develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Oil Spill ROV Windows
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
Quoting StormW:


Better than Rowan and Martin's Laugh In!


All we need is Goldie Hawn to pop out of a window and giggle
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think "zero" storms for a hurricane season should be a "success", not a bust.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good post earthlydragonfly...

One good hit will give a whole new meaning to the term..."game over"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


It might have been that once-in-a-hundred-years season we get to see once in a lifetime.


Only if I am lucky....
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10442
Quoting Jeff9641:


I think it's just one person doing this.
NO its quite a few of you. not only what Biloxi said but also all the annoying references to jfv. as someone wrote a few pages back not only do i (-) i also (!) anyone who goes annoyingly OT. ignore user and move on and we dont have to suffer through pages of useless entries.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:

Hurricane Alex caused major flood damage in North Central Mexico, literally crippling the infrastructure of Monterrey, Mexico, a city of 1.35 million. I say the 1.21 billion in damage is an understatement. The total should approach $5 billion dollars.

All it takes is one major Hurricane, like Andrew in 1992 to set its mark on the season. Whether we have 7 storms, 17 storms or 27 storms, it only take ONE.

As a non-professional weather observer for 42 yrs, I believe we will have an above average season, with 14-17 TC's, 9 hurricanes and 3-4 majors. I believe August 1-Oct 1 will be very busy.

Everyone from Brownsville, TX to the Bar Harbor, ME area, including the Caribbean Basin, Lesser and Windward Island needs to pay CLOSE attention to the Tropics.


LOL, you forgot to mention the coast of Mexico S of the Texas border (S of Brownsville). Yeah, point well taken. As usual, you should always be watching the tropics if you live in a hurricane prone area. If a hurricane hit your area once before, its only a matter of time before it hits again.

But this should not stop anyone from living there lives. Watch the tropics casually, and then act with your emergency plan when the time comes. Its not like its doomdsay everyday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
754. SLU
Quoting Bordonaro:

Hurricane Alex caused major flood damage in North Central Mexico, literally crippling the infrastructure of Monterrey, Mexico, a city of 1.35 million. I say the 1.21 billion in damage is an understatement. The total should approach $5 billion dollars.

All it takes is one major Hurricane, like Andrew in 1992 to set its mark on the season. Whether we have 7 storms, 17 storms or 27 storms, it only take ONE.

As a non-professional weather observer for 42 yrs, I believe we will have an above average season, with 14-17 TC's, 9 hurricanes and 3-4 majors. I believe August 1-Oct 1 will be very busy.

Everyone from Brownsville, TX to the Bar Harbor, ME area, including the Caribbean Basin, Lesser and Windward Island needs to pay CLOSE attention to the Tropics.


Yes. There's nothing to suggest a slow season like some people have been saying for the last few days. 17-10-5 is still on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
752. SLU
Quoting StormW:


I hear ya! Yeah,'05 did. Folks fail to realize that the 2005 season was an anomaly.


It might have been that once-in-a-hundred-years season we get to see once in a lifetime.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


OMG! Someone with common sense!

Thanks SLU.


I think too many people (especially the young ones) believe that it is just a video game and there are no real consequences to these forces of nature. When Charlie blew through (I was 37) I had 4 kids, a new born, a 2 year old, a 7year old and a 9 year old. I live in central fl. and when you feel the immediate danger and the winds top out at over 100mph you will know then that it is not a game. The hurrican force winds lasted over 5 hours. I feared first for my children and wife then myself. I was terrified but refused to show it to my family. We were lucky! My house sustained about $12,000 in damages (of course just under my hurricane deductable) So you folks that beg for a storm remember that it can be you and you might not be able to turn off the game and go to sleep..

There are many here who have experienced much worse than I have... but when the storm comes at you .. once it starts you cant restart and change your mind and leave...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
For all those persons calling the 2010 season a bust and lowering their numbers for the year because of a seemingly slow start, try telling that to the victims of Hurricane Alex. The precursor to Alex caused widespread flooding in the Dominican Republic and when the storm formed, flooding related deaths occured in Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador. Thousands of persons lost their homes. In all, 51 people have been killed by Alex and about 2 dozen more are still missing even up until today. $1.21 billion USD in damages were caused by Hurricane Alex. There is a chance that Alex could get his name retired at the end of the season. It certainly hasn't been a slow season for those persons who were affected by Alex.

The 1992 season was the epitome of a botched hurricane season when you look at the overall numbers against climatology. Try telling the folks in the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana that it was a slow season. It might have been a boring season for you but certainly not for them. IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM TO MAKE IT A WORSE POSSIBLE HURRICANE SEASON IN YOUR COUNTRY, STATE OR COUNTY.





Most observations made so far this year point towards very significant tropical cylone activity. With the very favourable conditions present in the Atlantic basin, when the season really gets going, no one's going to be able to stop it and many of us could be brought to our knees .......

Hurricane Alex caused major flood damage in North Central Mexico, literally crippling the infrastructure of Monterrey, Mexico, a city of 1.35 million. I say the 1.21 billion in damage is an understatement. The total should approach $5 billion dollars.

All it takes is one major Hurricane, like Andrew in 1992 to set its mark on the season. Whether we have 7 storms, 17 storms or 27 storms, it only take ONE.

As a non-professional weather observer for 42 yrs, I believe we will have an above average season, with 14-17 TC's, 9 hurricanes and 3-4 majors. I believe August 1-Oct 1 will be very busy.

Everyone from Brownsville, TX to the Bar Harbor, ME area, including the Caribbean Basin, Lesser and Windward Island needs to pay CLOSE attention to the Tropics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To post 763:

Yeah, I haven't see KmanIslander here for a while either.

To post 718:

Yep, that's why there's always that disclaimer to every hurricane season forecast "it only takes one to make it a bad season." So, is there any real value to predicting the number of named storms expected? I guess the only answer I can think of is that it matters because it increases the chances of more folks having a bad season (i.e. a storm hitting there area). It also matters what the steering current patterns are from month to month, which cannot be predicted in advance. So, I do feel this season would produce a similar number of storms like 2008 (I am thinking 16 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 majors), I don't know where they'll end up (not saying 2010 will be like 2008 in terms of tracks).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yes quite right tropicalAnalystwx13 I was stating that earler this morning on the last blog

btwntx08 I am thinking the same thing and also low shear is starting to effect it now things should look quite different in the next 24 hours when D Max kicks in

sorry for late post of this comment had to run fast this was from this morning
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
746. SLU
Quoting Jeff9641:


Exactly I'm sticking to my forecast of 15 to 17 sorms with leaning toward 17. I see a lot of CV storms this year and I wouldn't be surprised if we have an invest in the next couple of days near the CV islands based on sat.


Something close to the average of all the forecasts: 17, 10 and 5 is still on and might even be too low giving all the conditions we have this season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Forecasted shallow and mid layer steering is troubling if a system develops by the Cape Verde's considering the location of the A/B high. Yes I'm talking about the sacred "F" state.

PSU e-WALL steering at 72* hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
743. SLU
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Extremely well said. I applaud you for that post.


Thanks a lot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


He doesn't hang around much when it's slow.
Ahh... he's of the normal kind. We on here everyday are of the obsessive kind. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
741. SLU
Quoting StormW:


OMG! Someone with common sense!

Thanks SLU.


Yeh i've been a bit upset today reading so many posts about it being a bust season. I think 2005 has spoilt a lot of us in believing what constitutes an active season. On July 12th 2004 the storm count was still 0 and look at how Florida and parts of the Caribbean were crippled just weeks later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
740. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Anyone heard of Kman? I haven't seen him on the blog since Alex.


He doesn't hang around much when it's slow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
scrolling post POOF is like breathing the freshest of air :D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This season hasn't been slow at all. A category two with near a category four pressure before and around July 1 is pretty respectable. A pause in the activity is to be expected in the early season as well. It matters not though. The first storm of 1992 didn't form until August 17. We all know what that storm did. The second didn't even get named until September 18.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Are you talking about Wunderkidcayman or KmanIslander (if I am remembering both names correctly)?
Kmanislander.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
735. IKE
Quoting Bordonaro:

The ol' Fickle Finger of Fate. Man, I loved the Rowan & Martin's Laugh In!!


I did too....it was a funny show.

88.3 outside my window. Looks like no rain here this afternoon, which is good news.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ughhh! My ignore list is acting up, again. Time to contact admin.

Quoting hurrkat05:
miami that should tell you something the tropics are going to be quiet for the rest of the month so you can go back to school and learn something...
There's no school in summer.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Anyone heard of Kman? I haven't seen him on the blog since Alex.


Are you talking about Wunderkidcayman or KmanIslander (if I am remembering both names correctly)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:
For all those persons calling the 2010 season a bust and lowering their numbers for the year because of a seemingly slow start, try telling that to the victims of Hurricane Alex. The precursor to Alex caused widespread flooding in the Dominican Republic and when the storm formed, flooding related deaths occured in Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador. Thousands of persons lost their homes. In all, 51 people have been killed by Alex and about 2 dozen more are still missing even up until today. $1.21 billion USD in damages were caused by Hurricane Alex. There is a chance that Alex could get his name retired at the end of the season. It certainly hasn't been a slow season for those persons who were affected by Alex.

The 1992 season was the epitome of a botched hurricane season when you look at the overall numbers against climatology. Try telling the folks in the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana that it was a slow season. It might have been a boring season for you but certainly not for them. IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM TO MAKE IT A WORSE POSSIBLE HURRICANE SEASON IN YOUR COUNTRY, STATE OR COUNTY.





Most observations made so far this year point towards very significant tropical cylone activity. With the very favourable conditions present in the Atlantic basin, when the season really gets going, no one's going to be able to stop it and many of us could be brought to our knees .......
Extremely well said. I applaud you for that post.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



mail for you keep
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115241
If ever I cease to love, if ever I cease to love

May fish get legs and cows lay eggs

If ever I cease to love.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
Anyone heard of Kman? I haven't seen him on the blog since Alex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-ir4.html

During the animation, if you click on HDW-high (upper-level wind vectors), easterly winds aloft aligned with low-level easterlies, there is lots of low wind shear in the E Atlantic right now. It'll be interesting to see if both the wave over Africa right now and the wave that entered the Atlantic yesterday show some signs of slow development over the next couple of days.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-ir4.html

In this animation, HDW-high easterly wind vectors extend all the way to 55W! Wow shear is low for hundreds of miles west of these waves. Again, these waves might show some signs of gradual development in an envrionment of low shear and warm SSTs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
724. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting IKE:


LOL...true.

The fickle finger award goes to.....


The ol' Fickle Finger of Fate. Man, I loved the Rowan & Martin's Laugh In!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Hadji wasnt too Shabby either tkeith.

And Bandit can do better than sum here.


Woof!!
Bandit...I remember he was real fond of the XTRAP model :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurrkat05:
no teddy im not here to insult you guys i love you guys you all do a really good job and im impressed...i just need to come in from time to time to set you guys on the right track...it's all good..

just popping on to say, get over yourself. we are learning nothing from your 'opinions' and you've shown nothing to support your statements. you'll be on ignore for me moving forward, please don't even respond to this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
718. SLU
For all those persons calling the 2010 season a bust and lowering their numbers for the year because of a seemingly slow start, try telling that to the victims of Hurricane Alex. The precursor to Alex caused widespread flooding in the Dominican Republic and when the storm formed, flooding related deaths occured in Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador. Thousands of persons lost their homes. In all, 51 people have been killed by Alex and about 2 dozen more are still missing even up until today. $1.21 billion USD in damages were caused by Hurricane Alex. There is a chance that Alex could get his name retired at the end of the season. It certainly hasn't been a slow season for those persons who were affected by Alex.

The 1992 season was the epitome of a botched hurricane season when you look at the overall numbers against climatology. Try telling the folks in the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana that it was a slow season. It might have been a boring season for you but certainly not for them. IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM TO MAKE IT A WORSE POSSIBLE HURRICANE SEASON IN YOUR COUNTRY, STATE OR COUNTY.





Most observations made so far this year point towards very significant tropical cylone activity. With the very favourable conditions present in the Atlantic basin, when the season really gets going, no one's going to be able to stop it and many of us could be brought to our knees .......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurrkat05:
no teddy im not here to insult you guys i love you guys you all do a really good job and im impressed...i just need to come in from time to time to set you guys on the right track...it's all good..


lmao....after a hard days work...its fun to get a good laugh in...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OMG will you kids grow up! This is getting ridiculous. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Also, there is no one on this blog who is 100% right all the time. I come here to learn what may be happening now and in the near future. Not to see a bunch of kids fighting among themselves stating "I am right and you are wrong"!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 764 - 714

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
59 °F
Partly Cloudy