More pre-season predictions of a very active Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on July 12, 2010

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Hello again, it's Jeff Masters back again after a week away. Well, the past week was a wicked hot time to be in New England, where I was vacationing, and I certainly didn't expect to see 98° temperatures in Maine like I experienced! Fortunately, it's not hard to find cold water to plunge into in New England. Thankfully, the tropics were relatively quiet during my week away, and remain so today. There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss at present, and none of the reliable computer models is forecasting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model does show a strong tropical disturbance developing near the waters offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras this weekend, though. With not much to discuss in the present-day tropics, let's take a look at more pre-season predictions of the coming Atlantic hurricane season.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Penn State
Dr. Michael Mann and graduate student Michael Kozar of Penn State University (PSU) issued their 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 28. Their forecast utilizes a statistical model to predict storm counts, based on historical activity. Their model is predicting 19 to 28 named storms in the Atlantic, with a best estimate of 23 storms. The forecast assumes that record warm SSTs will continue in the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes. Dr. Mann has issued two previous forecasts, in 2007 and 2009. The 2007 forecast was perfect--15 storms were predicted, and 15 storms occurred. The 2009 forecast called for 11.5 named storms, and 9 occurred (the 2009 forecast also contained the caveat that if a strong El Niño event occurred, only 9.5 named storms were expected; a strong El Niño did indeed occur.) So, the 2009 forecast also did well.


2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from the UK GloSea model
A major new player in the seasonal Atlantic hurricane season forecast game is here--the UK Met Office, which issued its first Atlantic hurricane season forecast in 2007. The UK Met Office is the United Kingdom's version of our National Weather Service. Their 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for 20 named storms, with a 70% chance the number will range between 13 and 27. They predict an ACE index of 204, which is about double the average ACE index.

I have high hopes for the UK Met Office forecast, since it is based on a promising new method--running a dynamical computer model of the global atmosphere-ocean system. The CSU forecast from Phil Klotzbach is based on statistical patterns of hurricane activity observed from past years. These statistical techniques do not work very well when the atmosphere behaves in ways it has not behaved in the past. The UK Met Office forecast avoids this problem by using a global computer forecast model--the GloSea model (short for GLObal SEAsonal model). GloSea is based on the HadGEM3 model--one of the leading climate models used to formulate the influential UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. GloSea subdivides the atmosphere into a 3-dimensional grid 0.86° in longitude, 0.56° in latitude (about 62 km), and up to 85 levels in the vertical. This atmospheric model is coupled to an ocean model of even higher resolution. The initial state of the atmosphere and ocean as of June 1, 2010 were fed into the model, and the mathematical equations governing the motions of the atmosphere and ocean were solved at each grid point every few minutes, progressing out in time until the end of November (yes, this takes a colossal amount of computer power!) It's well-known that slight errors in specifying the initial state of the atmosphere can cause large errors in the forecast. This "sensitivity to initial conditions" is taken into account by making many model runs, each with a slight variation in the starting conditions which reflect the uncertainty in the initial state. This generates an "ensemble" of forecasts and the final forecast is created by analyzing all the member forecasts of this ensemble. Forty-two ensemble members were generated for this year's UK Met Office forecast. The researchers counted how many tropical storms formed during the six months the model ran to arrive at their forecast of twenty named storms for the remainder of this hurricane season. Of course, the exact timing and location of these twenty storms are bound to differ from what the model predicts, since one cannot make accurate forecasts of this nature so far in advance.

The grid used by GloSea is fine enough to see hurricanes form, but is too coarse to properly handle important features of these storms. This lack of resolution results in the model not generating the right number of storms. This discrepancy is corrected by looking back at time for the years 1989-2002, and coming up with correction factors (i.e., "fudge" factors) that give a reasonable forecast.

The future of seasonal hurricane forecasts using global dynamical computer models is bright. Their first three forecasts have been good. Last year the Met Office forecast was for 6 named storms and an ACE index of 60. The actual number of storms was 9, and the ACE index was 53. Their 2008 forecast called for 15 named storms, and 15 were observed. Their 2007 forecast called for 10 named storms in July - November, and 13 formed. A group using the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECWMF) model is also experimenting with some promising techniques using that model. Models like the GloSea and ECMWF will only get better as increased computer power and better understanding of the atmosphere are incorporated, necessitating less use of "fudge" factors based on historical hurricane patterns. If human-caused climate change amplifies in coming decades, statistical seasonal hurricane forecasts like the CSU's may be limited in how much they can be improved, since the atmosphere may move into new patterns very unlike what we've seen in the past 100 years. It is my expectation that ten years from now, seasonal hurricane forecasts based on global computer models such as the UK Met Office's GloSea will regularly out-perform the statistical forecasts issued by CSU.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Florida State University
Last year, another group using dynamical computer forecast models entered the seasonal hurricane prediction fray. A group at Florida State University led by Dr. Tim LaRow introduced a new model called COAPS, which is funded by a 5-year, $6.2 million grant from NOAA. This year, the COAPS model is calling for 17 named storms and 10 hurricanes. Last year's prediction by the COAPS model was for 8 named storms and 4 hurricanes, which was very close to the observed 9 named storms and 3 hurricanes.

Summary of 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
Here are the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecasters:

23 named storms: PSU statistical model
20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model
18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU dynamical model
10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology

Only four hurricane seasons since 1851 have had as many as nineteen named storms, so 5 out of 6 of these pre-season forecasts are calling for a top-five busiest season in history. One thing is for sure, though--this year won't be able to compete with the Hurricane Season of 2005 for early season activity--that year already had five named storm by this point in the season, including two major hurricanes (Dennis and Emily.)

Tropical Storm Conson threatens the Philippines
Weather456 has an interesting post on why the Western Pacific typhoon season has been exceptionally inactive this year. It looks like we'll have out first typhoon of the Western Pacific season later today, since Tropical Storm Conson appears poised to undergo rapid intensification, and should strike the main Philippine island of Luzon as a Category 1 or 2 typhoon.

Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

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2914. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Ike, did you see that ECMWF at 192? Is that a small system in the Gulf on there?


Looks like a blob of rain. I see what you're talking about.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Is that tropical wave starting to spin over Cape Verde? Or is it going to be wiped out by SAL?
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Thanks!
That explanes why conditions are so ripe for so long in the North Atlantic but only an A on the boards.
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2909. 7544
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah I wonder if its this wave that the GFS and Euro are starting to latch on. The GFS brings a weak system to the FL Penisula next week and so does the Euro. Also of note is the amount of tropical coming across FL later this week thru next week. Pretty amazing to see so many waves moving into FL in July. I counted atleast 3 in the next 10 days coming across C and S FL. IKE's downcasting days are numbered!


,morning all watching 40 west today
and the area of disturbed weather by the bahamas for today . is there a chance the bahama could develope tia
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
2908. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yeah I wonder if its this wave that the GFS and Euro are starting to latch on. The GFS brings a weak system to the FL Penisula next week and so does the Euro. Also of note is the amount of tropical coming across FL later this week thru next week. Pretty amazing to see so many waves moving into FL in July. I counted atleast 3 in the next 10 days coming across C and S FL. IKE's downcasting days are numbered!


LOL!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2907. WAHA
Weren't there two named storms in the atlantic? Not only Alex, but Anita, in March. So Bonnie won't be our second named storm.
(But if you're saying NORTH atlantic, you got me.)
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Quoting IKE:


Wish-caster!


New phrase picked up on this morning.....bundle-caster.


Most commonly used sayings in 2010 since the shutdown in the ATL started....

(1)SAL will decrease by.....
(2)Just wait til............
(3)The blog went dead!......
(4)Where is everyone?.......
(5)Just stick the downcaster on ignore.......
(6)Teh spelling is a giveaway...report him!.....


LOL Ike.........I am a "storm clusters" caster (very similar to bundle-caster)...... :)
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2904. cg2916
Quoting IKE:


Wish-caster!


New phrase picked up on this morning.....bundle-caster.


Most commonly used sayings in 2010 since the shutdown in the ATL started....

(1)SAL will decrease by.....
(2)Just wait til............
(3)The blog went dead!......
(4)Where is everyone?.......
(5)Just stick the downcaster on ignore.......
(6)Teh spelling is a giveaway...report him!.....


LOL, exactly!
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2902. WAHA
Quoting sporteguy03:
There will be a named storm in August just look at the past years even last year had a 4 named storms and that is climatically what should happen and it was a below average year. It is nice July caught everyone a break but I doubt August will be as lucky.

No, LUCKY is having a lot of storms, that are very strong, that never hit land and never kill or injure anyone.
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2901. IKE
Quoting surfsidesindy:
I live in East Central FL and we have had less than 1/8th of an inch of rain since June 8th. It has rained everywhere around us but we've just gotten a spit here. (I think NASA has put up an invisible shield or something!) At any rate, any kind of SMALL tropical system would be welcome right about now. My worry is that the order of nature is going to send in a BIG system to make up for our deficit and put us back in balance!


Wish-caster!


New phrase picked up on this morning.....bundle-caster.


Most commonly used sayings in 2010 since the shutdown in the ATL started....

(1)SAL will decrease by.....
(2)Just wait til............
(3)The blog went dead!......
(4)Where is everyone?.......
(5)Just stick the downcaster on ignore.......
(6)Teh spelling is a giveaway...report him!.....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2900. WAHA
Quoting DestinJeff:
wow. I expected to see a few more people on here this morning. Is everybody crashed at Moe's or what?

I'm pretty sure Moe's isn't real. Also, noone should drink and predict. Like you shouldn't drink and drive.
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There will be a named storm in August just look at the past years even last year had a 4 named storms and that is climatically what should happen and it was a below average year. It is nice July caught everyone a break but I doubt August will be as lucky.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Does the seasonal position of the ITCZ play a roll in tropical storm formation? It seems to me to push the African waves further north where they can build more spin, in the summer time.
Without that, it seems like the ocean has been just as hot as August, I think the dust has been low, and there have been plenty of pockets of low shear. Yet still the storms are waiting for August.


"The" huge role in terms of the CV season...The ITCZ, TUTT, and Sub-Equatorial Ridge rise from South to North "in tandem" during the Northern Hemisphere Summer and the ITCZ sets up close to the 10N mark..........It all gradually falls again in the late Fall as CV activitiy subsides.
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2896. WAHA
Quoting biff4ugo:
Does the seasonal position of the ITCZ play a roll in tropical storm formation? It seems to me to push the African waves further north where they can build more spin, in the summer time.
Without that, it seems like the ocean has been just as hot as August, I think the dust has been low, and there have been plenty of pockets of low shear. Yet still the storms are waiting for August.

Heck, the ITCZ is what makes 65 percent of Atlantic tropical storms.
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Does the seasonal position of the ITCZ play a roll in tropical storm formation? It seems to me to push the African waves further north where they can build more spin, in the summer time.
Without that, it seems like the ocean has been just as hot as August, I think the dust has been low, and there have been plenty of pockets of low shear. Yet still the storms are waiting for August.
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2894. WAHA

I don't know about the rest of you, but I think the wave in the lower bottom part of the picture might have the best chance of becoming Bonnie.
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I live in East Central FL and we have had less than 1/8th of an inch of rain since June 8th. It has rained everywhere around us but we've just gotten a spit here. (I think NASA has put up an invisible shield or something!) At any rate, any kind of SMALL tropical system would be welcome right about now. My worry is that the order of nature is going to send in a BIG system to make up for our deficit and put us back in balance!
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Good Morning. The slow but steady rise and "March of the ITCZ" continues. Once the TUTT rises over the next few weeks going into August, and, the SAL retreats, theres going to be lots of moisture out there between Africa and Antilles based on the heat-moisture-water vapor issues discussed by Dr. M on one of his Blogs about a month ago to help feed and sustain some of the waves.....Don't know what will happen closer to home in July and early August but I am not looking forward to what "monsters" the CV season may bring this year (just based upon the recent size of Alex).
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It looks like there may not be anything till maybe the end of July or even into August. Which sounds good to me.
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... and maybe, it is just too hot out there for the storms to form. I wonder if anyone has ever considered that?
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Quoting IKE:


LOL...it must be slow if Bastardi is mentioning the WRF/NAM model.

I mean...come on Joe! You and almost everyone else has hyped this season so much. Compared it to 2005. Thankfully it's not happening yet.

"Nothing is obvious yet".....ya think?


The comparison is in similar environmental conditions and pressure patterns. No two seasons will unfold in the same manner. The models are beginning to sense a change as more wave energy is exiting Africa and propagating further west. Some of this energy should be able to bundle and show on the model projections over the next week or so. I would be some what surprised if we don't have a total of three named storms in the books by the end of the month though the developing storms may still be active going into August.
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2884. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
Morning Ike, hope your staying hydrated in this heat. Man it's been hot out here the last few days.


I'm at 77.9 already.....



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2883. Hhunter


observe and track low level swirl at coordinates 20 & 47
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Morning Ike, hope your staying hydrated in this heat. Man it's been hot out here the last few days.
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2881. Hhunter
well folks let the games begin. within 4 days we will have development in the florida straits into central gulf..low level swirl that will develop once it reaches moister air of florida straits. waite for it....
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2880. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Well ike now even the Crownweather guy that was saying a week ago it was going to be busy now states it will be another week or two when the dry air lessens.i know is typically slow in july but not even a invest. well let me go and get to work before the teeny boppers get on here and start ridiculing us for downcasting lol>Was on here a little while last night and then read back some.What i found was the same ole stale rethoric.Listening to all the ifs and buts last night on the blog reminded me of a quote by a famous new orleans sportcaster: it went like this.If ands an buts were candies and nuts and the queen had a different anatomy she would be king.He also said when the fans would say the saints were only 3 things away from a super bowl yes only 3 things they need wereGod the Father the Son and the Holy Ghost i think right now thats the 3 things the tropics need to get going from what i see lol.Ike have a Blessed day.


LOL.

Have a good day!


Parallel GFS and the latest NOGAPS have a system approaching the Yucatan and/or crossing it next week...similar to TD2.

Operational GFS has a system approaching the islands in 2 weeks.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Saw this in the news this morning. Why couldn't they get it right, even if they don't have a big budget, with all the available information on the internet?

Newly elected President Benigno Aquino III scolded the weather bureau for failing to predict that the storm would hit Manila.

"I hope this is the last time we are all brought to areas different from where we should be," Aquino told officials during a meeting of the National Disaster Coordinating Council, noting that government agencies were relying on the weather bureau for their preparations.

Weather bureau chief Prisco Nilo explained that it takes forecasters six hours to update weather bulletins. The weather bureau has complained of lack of funding and equipment.
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Well ike now even the Crownweather guy that was saying a week ago it was going to be busy now states it will be another week or two when the dry air lessens.i know is typically slow in july but not even a invest. well let me go and get to work before the teeny boppers get on here and start ridiculing us for downcasting lol>Was on here a little while last night and then read back some.What i found was the same ole stale rethoric.Listening to all the ifs and buts last night on the blog reminded me of a quote by a famous new orleans sportcaster: it went like this.If ands an buts were candies and nuts and the queen had a different anatomy she would be king.He also said when the fans would say the saints were only 3 things away from a super bowl yes only 3 things they need wereGod the Father the Son and the Holy Ghost i think right now thats the 3 things the tropics need to get going from what i see lol.Ike have a Blessed day.
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2877. IKE
Here's what the NHC thinks will happen with the system the WRF spun up into an impressive tropical system, yesterday, in the central GOM....

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 28N WED
THROUGH THU AND TO JUST N OF THE GULF FRI AND SUN. WEAK TROUGH
OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF LATER TODAY AND THU THEN
DISSIPATE FRI.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH 55W LATE SAT AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN LATE SUN.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2876. IKE
Here's today's 6Z NAM model at 84 hours. No low in the GOM on this run. NAM is almost worthless on the tropics....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2875. IKE
Quoting portcharlotte:
Bastardi from last night


Nothing is obvious yet, but it's interesting to note how the WRF is starting to spin system up (the central Gulf system in 84 hours is coming from the disturbance that is in the Bahamas now) and the GFS is seeing the currently convection free wave in the central Atlantic. Alex developed during the MJO in a similar state. Keep in mind the forecast this year for that on my part is for its variance not to be one that "circles" the globe but instead runs into the center then comes back out into octants 8-3. The stronger it comes back out, the more favorable for development


LOL...it must be slow if Bastardi is mentioning the WRF/NAM model.

I mean...come on Joe! You and almost everyone else has hyped this season so much. Compared it to 2005. Thankfully it's not happening yet.

"Nothing is obvious yet".....ya think?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
2874. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
TROPICAL STORM "BASYANG" (CONSON)
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
==============================================

Tropical Storm "BASYANG" has weakened slightly as it moves in a Northwest direction.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Basyang (Conson) located at 15.7°N 118.2°E or 180 kms west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings #1
=======================

Luzon Region
------------
1.Pangasinan
2.Zambales
3.Bataan

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near coastal areas, and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Bastardi from last night


Nothing is obvious yet, but it's interesting to note how the WRF is starting to spin system up (the central Gulf system in 84 hours is coming from the disturbance that is in the Bahamas now) and the GFS is seeing the currently convection free wave in the central Atlantic. Alex developed during the MJO in a similar state. Keep in mind the forecast this year for that on my part is for its variance not to be one that "circles" the globe but instead runs into the center then comes back out into octants 8-3. The stronger it comes back out, the more favorable for development
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On the BP front, they apparently feel that more analysis is required before proceeding with the well integrity testing.

As Expected BP Stretches It Out...

Another PR stunt, IMHO. They've known they have a problem down hole for some time now ... since the top kill attempt. They won't be shutting in the well ... the test will fail, everyone will express disappointment, and BP will proceed with collecting all the oil into the four containment vessels.

Again, hopefully they can choke back flow at least partially to help out the relief well drillers, when the time is right. Until then, it will be open flow, but thankfully not into the Gulf anymore. No more Corexit either. That's progress.

Now if they can just get things shut in with a relief well before a bad storm happens along. Looks like the next week will be clear ... ain't nothing developing nothing model wise. Sure do hope they beat the weather.

WTO
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1270
2871. SeALWx
Quoting traumaboyy:
I do not get to come by here often because I am at work and usually busy, but what was the reason Alex and His little brother had such a hard time getting their act together. Seemed like at least for a time, they had a great opportunity to turn into major storms. Or did everyone just go to bed??


Continental dry air played a large part in each storms disruption, IMO. Once they got fairly close to land, they each started pulling dry air into the core from Mexico/Texas.

Edit: By 'fairly close' I mean a couple/few days, not right on the coast. (Well, I guess I do mean to include the exit off the Yucatan.)
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I do not get to come by here often because I am at work and usually busy, but what was the reason Alex and His little brother had such a hard time getting their act together. Seemed like at least for a time, they had a great opportunity to turn into major storms. Or did everyone just go to bed??
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any ways guys Good night see ya all in the morn
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Another boring night. Boring is good.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Night everyone, I'm heading to bed too.
*yawn*
XD


Good night!
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Quoting Motttt:
lot of oil
Link


For some reason, this doesn't work for me.
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2865. JLPR2
Night everyone, I'm heading to bed too.
*yawn*
XD
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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