Caribbean disturbance struggling again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:21 PM GMT on September 29, 2005

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Once again, the tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean sea southwest of Jamaica has fallen on hard times. It's refreshing for a change to see a system that doesn't develop when conditions seem to favor devlopment; this is typical behavior in most hurricane seasons, but certainly has been lacking in the Hurricane Season of 2005! The disturbance's deep convection has decreased considerably since last night, despite warm water beneath the system and somewhat favorable wind shear overhead. Wind shear remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, and has not decreased as forecast. Upper level outflow is poor, and the upper-level anticyclone overhead that was observed yesterday has grown weaker. The reconnaissance flight scheduled for this morning was moved to this afternoon, and they are currently investigating the system. There is some increased thunderstorm activity building on the southwest side of the disturbance this morning, and we may see a reapeat of yesterday, when the disturbance got better organized through the day, only to fall apart at night.

None of the computer forecast models develop the system, although they do still forecast a more favorable upper-level wind pattern to develop Friday and Saturday. However, the disturbance is approaching the Yucatan Peninsula, and development will probably be hampered by passage over the Peninsula. Dry air being pulled off of the Yucatan may also be a problem. The disturbance is unlikely to develop into anything more than a minimal tropical storm through Saturday. It may have a better chance for development once it enters the Gulf of Mexico early next week, although this is not assured--wind shear and more dry air may be problems for it.


Figure 1. The BAMM model takes the Caribbean disturbance into the Yucatan Peninsula. The GFDL model disippates the system immediately.

Southeast U.S.
Several of the global computer models have been persistently forecasting for the past three days that a tropical storm may form in the waters east of the Carolinas or Florida early next week. Any system forming in this region would be forced westward or west-southwestward into the Southeast Coast by a strong ridge of high pressure building in. There is as yet no sign of this development occurring, but we should watch the waters off of the Southeast coast the next few days.

Africa westward
The ITCZ is active in the region extending from the African coast westwards for 1000 miles. There are currently no suspect areas to focus on.

Hawaii
Hawaii is watching Tropical Storm Kenneth, which is expected to pass though the Islands Friday and Saturday as a tropical depression, and may bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding to the islands. Tropical depressions that have passed though the islands in previous years have caused serious flooding problems.

Baja
The Baja Peninsula is watching newly-formed Tropical Tropical Storm Otis, which may strike the central Baja Peninsula on Sunday. Otis is also a threat to bring heavy rains and flooding to Arizona and northern Mexico early next week.

China
Super Typhoon Langwang, a small but intense typhoon with 150 mph sustained winds, is headed towards China and may hit northern Taiwan as a Category 4 storm on Sunday. Longwang is expected to gradually weaken but still hit mainland China on Monday as a Category 3 storm.

Jeff Masters

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305. cirrocumulus
5:48 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Stan may be here soon. Looks good on satellite. Anybody know if there is Jamaica or Cayman radar website? Galveston down 12.21 on the year!
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
304. drg0dOwnCountry
11:36 PM GMT on September 29, 2005

Link
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
303. WillJax
8:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
The GFS seems to be developing an Cape Verde wave shortly after it comes off the coast. With the projected ridge extending across the Southeast and across the Atlantic, plus with the GFS building another ridge right behind it, it really looks to have a fair go at crossing the Atlantic without turning out to sea. More than one model is predicting that scenario, so it very well could happen.

This is the same ridge that would bring the other projected system somewhere along the East Coast in about a week. The recent acccuracy of GFS in predicting the formation of these storms really has me keeping an eye out for these two systems.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
302. IKE
8:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
They'll be another 2 or 3 storms somewhere. Looks like if another cold front comes down into the Gulf of Mexico region by the end of next week the odds of another storm coming in along the gulf coast will be diminishing after that. The disturbed weather in the carribean might be close to the last shot for anything along the gulf region if the GFS is correct.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
301. FLGLFCST
8:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
I highly doubt its over yet, Blob/Stan may be having problems, but there are hints of some nasty stuff happening later this week into the begining of next week.
300. Geschworen
8:06 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
so who thinks that the 05 season will just stop right now? just to add to the weird year.
299. weatherdude65
7:52 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
AySz88....that is the low level circulation from Rita...no chance for it to redevelope though
298. Geschworen
7:47 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
we were looking at the remnants earlier today... dont know whats happening with it.
297. AySz88
7:44 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Is that the remnant of Rita trying to develop something? o.O

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
296. IKE
7:41 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Even though it's not a TD now...could get interesting in a few days according to the latest discussion from Tallahassee..."Long term...
Monday through Thursday...ridging aloft continues to be the main factor in
our weather. On Monday...ridging extends into the Atlantic off the
Middle Atlantic States back across the southeast U.S. To northern Mexico.
Trough off Florida East Coast continues to be a nemesis...drifting
westward across Florida on Wednesday producing general troughing across the southeast
U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. Long wave trough approaches from northwest on Wednesday
pushing a cold front through the region on Thursday...hopefully cooling
and drying the area out. Will have to maintain a watch on the
western Caribbean also. GFS ignores the tropical system while the NAM
intensifies it and pushes it to the northwest across the Yucatan by 84
hours."


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
294. pfdude
7:35 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
000
WONT41 KNHC 291912
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
310 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2005

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AND THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT FORMED. A LARGE
AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB
...OR 29.80 INCHES... WAS DETECTED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. HOWEVER... THERE IS NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COLLOCATED WITH THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THERE
IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
293. StormJunkie
7:34 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Really off to work. Will check in on our multi centered blob later.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16420
292. JimJax
7:32 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Thanks....Will do but heading for the ranch now. Good evening to all
291. StormJunkie
7:31 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Ask questions JimJax. If any of have the answers we will be glad to jump in. This is cyberspace. No need to be shy.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16420
290. DocNDswamp
7:30 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
LOL StormJ...saw earlier it had been Supersized!

Recon may have to land in Caymens and wait like rest of us.

gbreezegirl...frontal boundary between the 2 airmasses is a weakness in the atmosphere or surface trof that can pull a tropical low into, if the frontal boundary remains long enough and if the trop sys. is close enough to do so. Not saying gonna happen though at this point.

Well, I got some Katrina/Rita induced treelimbs still in need of cutting up. Talk to ya'll tonite.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
289. JimJax
7:26 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Been reading this site for awhile now. Dont understand much of what y'all are saying by find it most interesting. Occasionally pick up on some of it though. Live in NE Fla so constantly monitor the storms.
288. IKE
7:26 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
I don't think Stan-to-be will make it all the way to Texas or northern Mexico. East of there if it happens...which is a big if.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
287. StormJunkie
7:25 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Little further N and E maybe FLG.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16420
286. IKE
7:24 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
This statement by Bastardi about Stan..could be troubling for the gulf states..."A Caribbean system is a big problem as to where the center develops. Models favor the southward idea and a move next week into the southern Gulf. I want to see what the recon says as to where development is starting before buying that."....

Then a possible cold front the end of next week that might influence Stan north?

Looks like he thinks the system east-northeast of PR may eventually head up the east coast of the USA.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
285. FLGLFCST
7:19 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Interesting, however I think the center will be a bit farther north than what those models are showing.
284. Geschworen
7:18 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
is SHIP saying a cat 1 in 12hrs?
283. AM91091
7:16 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
282. AM91091
7:15 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
storm hank...Basatrdi's column
281. gbreezegirl
7:10 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Why would a cold front coming down cause the blob to move north? I am not knowledgeable of these things and do not understand this. Would it not push it away?
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 274
280. StormJunkie
7:08 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
That is a Super Longwang now Doc.lol.

Alright all. Off to work.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16420
279. IKE
7:07 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
The blob....stan-to-be?...south of Cuba appears to be getting better organized. Of course it did that a couple of days ago. Most computer models I saw have it camping around the Yucatan for a few days. The latest GFS(12Z) has a cold front coming down about this time next week. If something is left of blobby/Stan..maybe it gets drawn north then...but that's a week away.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
278. WillJax
7:06 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
SJ, I saw that UKMET too. and it really does appear that StanBlob splits with half of him travelling toward the Yucatan while the other half crosses central/west-central Cuba.

I do remember the GFS a couple of days ago predicting that StanBlob was going to cross Wester/West-central Cuba...perhaps this is what it meant.(?)

This is definintely a confusing system, but I'll say it again: they're the best kind from which to learn!
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
277. DocNDswamp
7:01 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
oops, forgot to post this before last one...

LOL and amen brother...still think Stan's gonna happen once it's around or past 83W and finally away from the northward tugging ULL. That ULL really camped out longer than all forecasters thought. And probably what's caused so much center replacement last couple days.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
276. DocNDswamp
6:53 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Hey WillJax and StormJunkie, ...yeah, hope what sneaks up on us ain't the remnants of TC LwgR off my coast. LOL.

Know what guys...I bet recon's gonna be flying around in circles a long while trying to get a grip.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
275. sewmap
6:49 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
So....what's everyone think about this storm? Is everyone in the "who knows" stage like me? lol

Does it look better now than it did earlier this morning, or is it just me?
274. StormJunkie
6:49 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Hey Lefty, it looks tome like the Ukmet supports the split. Not saying both would devlop, but just a split. IT looks llike the blob is part of what spawns the system the Ukmet has moving up the Fl coast and in to GA/SC? Or am I missing something?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16420
273. IKE
6:47 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Accuweather talks about the system east-northeast of PR as it moves toward Fl/Bahamas..."A tropical storm may or may not form in this location by next week. Even if there is no tropical development, the pattern will create a problem. The circulation between high pressure building to the north and low pressure to the south will create a broad easterly flow, which in turn will cause rough surf and stiff winds along the Southeast Coast next week. This means more beach wear and tear as well as dangerous rip currents. AccuWeather.com will monitor this situation closely, because it is basically the same setup that gave birth to hurricanes Katrina, Ophelia and Rita."...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
272. StormJunkie
6:47 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
The SHIPS has it as a 91 mph cane in 12 hrs. ????.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16420
271. Buhdog
6:44 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
looks like she is starting to crank up again to the north...right?
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
270. leftyy420
6:43 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
look the gfdl finally forms the system lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
269. leftyy420
6:42 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
lol sj. whats up boy
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
268. StormJunkie
6:41 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Split? I think I am going to stick with that theory as anything that makes no sense seems to be happening this year.lol.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16420
267. WillJax
6:39 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Hey what's up Doc? Yes exactly lefty and doc...I was shocked to wake up to see him in his present state after the explosive convection last night. Everything tells me that he would be a depression by now, but alas the factors have simply not lined up.

Now as we're all staring at this thing, some other system is suddenly going to pop up and form in the blink of an eye, showing StanBlob how it's really done.

I still can't get over the fact that 17 of the 18 TD's to form have gone on to become named storms! Amazing!
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
266. stormhank
6:35 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
any 1 got a link so I could hear joe bastardi's tropical discussion??
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
265. coastie24
6:34 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
That front coming from the north sure seems to be moving Baby Blob away from the coast and back out into the Gulf.
264. leftyy420
6:29 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
docv like i stold stormjunkie last night. i am a complete lost on this one lol. everything i know says she should develop. in fact she should be exploding right now. bnut guess what.not happening lol.

FOR ALL WE KNOW WE KNOW NOTHING
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
263. coastie24
6:28 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
We're still trying to put the pieces back together from Ivan. When I lived in Oklahoma it took several years for our area to put the pieces back from the May 3, 99 F5 tornado.
262. DocNDswamp
6:27 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
Ok Lefty, had a chance to study vis sat loop...man, what a disconnected system! Looks like a damn fujiwara!!! LOL. One circ center near Grand Caymens or about 19.3N 81.6W moving NNW and the other 80 miles to SW or near 18.3N 82.5W moving WNW. Kinda think the 2nd moving WNW will become true center, but leary to bet on it. Like Will was saying last nite, this system has made fools of us all.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
261. Geschworen
6:26 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
it is going to take years to put the pieces back together for us on the LA MS coast. i dont think another wave is going to effect us. just make it alittle easier to move on.
260. coastie24
6:24 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
I hope the wave just goes away. Give people time to put the pieces of lives back together.
259. Califonia
6:17 PM GMT on September 29, 2005

Posted By: WillJax at 5:49 PM GMT on September 29, 2005.

Hey Cali, mind linking me to the site on which you monitor those fires?


Here's a site that has satellite detection of fire locations - read the help menu to figure it out - I like the "highway" overlay as the active layer.

http://www.firedetect.noaa.gov/viewer.htm
258. Pensacola21
6:17 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
That wave in the Carribean is sure taking it's sweet time... I wonder what it will do....
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
257. leftyy420
6:16 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
hawke thasts why with the blow up last night i thought the surface center would be pulled north or relocate north but the convection died down and blew up over the llc again and today its doing the oposite. waning at the llc and fforming over the midlevel circulation
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
256. Pensacola21
6:14 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
I just have to wait and see when I get off, if we are slow it's around 3:00, busy 5:30....
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
255. palmbeacher
6:11 PM GMT on September 29, 2005
I love my hours. Still get have plenty of daylight when I get home to watch my ants...lol

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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