Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Crown Weather Services has awesome satellite of Africa, plus Wunderground then Accuweather plus these bloggers, How can you not be smart about the tropics?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Have you seen the one East of Africa? HUGE


I've not, do you have an image?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes. I'm going against the models and forecasting the next invest to be tagged in the western Caribbean, something similar to Alex and TD #2.
Gulf-caster :P
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Quoting scott39:
Same track also?
Looking at PSU e-WALL steering any development that would occur in the western Caribbean will likely be taken through the Yucatan, BOC, and then southern Mexico. No more Texas landfalls from what I'm seeing.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1971. centex
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes. I'm going against the models and forecasting the next invest to be tagged in the western Caribbean, something similar to Alex and TD #2.
Is that from the wave entering the Caribbean? If so we seem to be stuck in a pattern. If you believe in patterns this one will go a little further north.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


In my blog entry I made about 90 minutes ago, I mentioned most of the waves out in the Atlantic. Which one do you think will become 97L?
The one just east of the Antilles. Probably won't develop into anything significant but I think will be tagged as an invest once in the western Caribbean.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1969. scott39
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
There are several solid waves lined up over Africa
Have you seen the one East of Africa? HUGE
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There are several solid waves lined up over Africa
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1967. RickWPB
Quoting SavannahStorm:


That one's Ivan - 2004.
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1966. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes. I'm going against the models and forecasting the next invest to be tagged in the western Caribbean, something similar to Alex and TD #2.
Same track also?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Atlantic should remain quiet for another 48 hours or so before we see 97L.



In my blog entry I made about 90 minutes ago, I mentioned most of the waves out in the Atlantic. Which one do you think will become 97L?
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Do you expect something after 48 hours?
Yes. I'm going against the models and forecasting the next invest to be tagged in the western Caribbean, something similar to Alex and TD #2.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1962. scott39
I never learned how to post pictures. Can someone please post the Sattelite picture of E Africa and show that wave?
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1961. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Atlantic should remain quiet for another 48 hours or so before we see 97L.

Do you expect something after 48 hours?
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1960. RickWPB
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
must be nothing teens on the blog tonight lol for no one has posted the satellite photo of the strongest hurricane to hit the us mainland or any mention of where georges made its us mainland landfall . well us missippians just are never thought about lol. and i guess next soneone will post that katrinas ne eyewall passed over neworleans lol. hint on the strongest aug 17, 1969 190mph sustained gusts to 237 mph .


Hurricane Camille. I spent 1 year at Keesler AFB (Biloxi, MS) going to radar school. I missed Camille (thank goodness) by one year. That one was one of the worst!
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Quoting Ldog74:


Somebody posted a Sat image of Camille earlier on I believe, but because that storm occurred relatively early on in the satellite age, its tough to find a decent image of her. No doubt she was a beauty however.




Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1958. scott39
There is a monster huge wave getting close to the East side of Africa! That might be the one that models are developing in about 10 to 12 days from now? Will see how it looks once it gets off of Africa.
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Atlantic should remain quiet for another 48 hours or so before we see 97L.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1956. Ldog74
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
must be nothing teens on the blog tonight lol for no one has posted the satellite photo of the strongest hurricane to hit the us mainland or any mention of where georges made its us mainland landfall . well us missippians just are never thought about lol. and i guess next soneone will post that katrinas ne eyewall passed over neworleans lol. hint on the strongest aug 17, 1969 190mph sustained gusts to 237 mph .


Somebody posted a Sat image of Camille earlier on I believe, but because that storm occurred relatively early on in the satellite age, its tough to find a decent image of her. No doubt she was a beauty however.
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1955. RickWPB
Quoting BahaHurican:
Donna is one of the storms of legend here in the Bahamas... along w/ Betsy...


I remember both Donna and Betsy. Donna (1960), I was 12 and helped my father board up the windows of our West Palm Beach home. We didn't have the right materials, (only 1/4" plywood), but since Donna's furry mostly missed WPB, we were ok. In '65 during Betsy (senior in HS), my father was in the hospital so I boarded up the windows... with the same lousy plywood. That's one of the reasons today (age 63) I have accordion shutters to protect windows and doors.
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1954. centex
TD2 didn't look like much entering the Caribbean. Has the train been broken or will see something again in 3 or 4 days.
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1952. beell
StormW, if your still here-so a monsoonal flow in the Caribbean is characterized by SE flow as opposed to easterly across the area? And if so, is the current pattern to be considered monsoonal?
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must be nothing teens on the blog tonight lol for no one has posted the satellite photo of the strongest hurricane to hit the us mainland or any mention of where georges made its us mainland landfall . well us missippians just are never thought about lol. and i guess next soneone will post that katrinas ne eyewall passed over neworleans lol. hint on the strongest aug 17, 1969 190mph sustained gusts to 237 mph .
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As far as classically formed hurricanes go, it's tough to beat Gilbert in 1988...

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Thanks also Balt!!
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Hate to interrupt the nostalgia parade, but NHC posted a yellow circle a few hours ago. Before you run out to Home Depot, it's a whopping "near 0%"er Kitten-1 Yucatan drizzler ...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Don't we get some electrostatic / radiowave type disruptions every time there's a big flareup in our direction?


Flare by itself has little effect. Depends on what kind of CME, if any, occurs. If one occurs and its large/strong enough and in our direction it can deflect the Earth's magnetic field, be noticed in the large electric transmission systems, some radio interference. I consider that low probability given how far north it is on the sun. Certainly have a good shot at some nice auroras when it points around this way, maybe some sat comm issues. Have flares all the time, CMEs less so, big CMEs even less
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Thanks Storm!! I'm sorry.... I didn't notice that you were leaving until after I posted it.... Thanks you so much!!
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Quoting scott39:
StormW, Do you expect to see more major hurricanes to make landfall this year? Why?



Well, without knowing the ACTUAL setup, I would think so. Given we should be in a negative NAO, and a La Nina type setup usually makes for track farther south and west. Probably get a couple of LT storms during the Cape Verde season, go through the Caribbean, based on the forecast lower than normal pressure pattern suggested by the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast maps.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


Would you say that South Florida has a good chance then of not getting a hurricane this year? Thanks!
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Quoting StormW:
Good night all!
Back in the a.m.


night darling!
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Quoting StormW:


The Typhoon like setup is one that doesn't actually spawn from a tropical wave. The flow for the past few weeks in the Atlantic has been mainly out of the SE in the Tropics. With the A/B high having been weaker, the trades have been slower, and allowing for heat and moisture to build up in the Caribbean. This is the "monsoonal flow" you've heard me and Levi speak of. Then, with Mean Sea level pressures having been below average, and then when the high weakens somewhat, and orients slightly north, we get lowering pressures in the Caribbean. Lowering pressures and heat build up allow for more vertical motion, or rising air. A large area of lower pressure (not to be confused with a closed low) develops. These processes also aid in the upper level anticyclone to be maintained around or over the area. This all allows for thunderstorms to build, rain, and release latent heat energy. The upper level anticyclone evacuates this rising air;heat, and pressures lower further. Because there is no pre-existing low (surface closed low, tropical wave, etc, it takes longer, as well as the area being so large. Once an area is established that becomes dominate with vorticity, then we can start to see a surface circulation. In fact, the process sorta reminds me of what we call CISK (Conditional Instability of the Second Kind)

CISK


WOW Amazing, thank you so much Storm I had an inkling on what monsoonal flow was. Just thought hey looks so WPAC down there lol. But I had no idea it involved all that. Now that makes sense. It's no wonder they're such large systems and take so long to develop a circulation. Thank you for sharing your knowledge :)
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1937. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like the oil eddy is forecast to expand.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Mmmm could almost see a setup like 07,with a area of high pressure over the u.s that brings heat to the south,and takes storms(hurricanes,and tropical systems) into mexico,and texas.
2007 and 2010 are very loosely tied to be called analogs and IMO should not be compared.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1934. Ldog74
1fromnovasscotia,
I believe the storm you are referring to is Cyclone Olivia, from 1996. That is, if you are talking about the new world record that was announced earlier this year and warranted a blog post by Dr. Masters about it.
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a new one with Nick Cage
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No Sir! You'll be in bed! I wont allow it! LOL
Actually, I'm getting ready to leave the house... going out with some friends and likely to be back around 2 a.m.... which is why I may be awake to check in on the blog....

I'm really gone now - enjoy the rest of the blogging, u guys....
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I have not.....HUM....is it a new one or an oldie?
It's from 2009.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1928. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Well, without knowing the ACTUAL setup, I would think so. Given we should be in a negative NAO, and a La Nina type setup usually makes for track farther south and west. Probably get a couple of LT storms during the Cape Verde season, go through the Caribbean, based on the forecast lower than normal pressure pattern suggested by the ECMWF Seasonal Forecast maps.
Thanks, Are the runs on the models consistent on developing the first Cape Verde Tc around the 19th-21st of July?
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Thanks for the impressive solar weather images. Is there any chance this solar erruption(storm) will adversely affect satellite imagery? We don't need a storm developing and not be able to watch it on the satellite loops.

Talk about blog hysteria!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... MIAhurr.09. has inspired me to at least THINK about doing a weekly blog updating the area between 20-30N and 70-80W.... The Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Maybe I will feel so energized tomorrow that I will actually do something for this past week!

I'm out for now.... maybe I will check in later (around 2 a.m.?)
Good to hear. I'll definitely be checking often to see your thoughts.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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