Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Quoting CaneAddict:


Honestly your purpose of constantly posting these graphics?

to annoy you. i support it.
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Wow -- look at that atl ridging pattern the GFS is forecasting:


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Quoting AllStar17:
Great job Shaun! Thank you!
11:00 AM National Hurricane Center Advisory
-GRAPHICS UPDATE
Tropical Depression Two



Honestly your purpose of constantly posting these graphics?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Its way too far out, but it looks like the High is protecting the East Coast and Florida from the CV storm predicted by models. Once again, its way too far out, but I think anywhere from LA to MX is at risk for this storm, if it forms...Someone remember that! lol.


Wow, Your predicting landfalls further than models. We need to fire the NHC and just give you the whole office.

Landfallcasting = add that one to the list.

lol
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71. IKE
12Z CMC shows nothing much through July 14th.
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Quoting FLdewey:


LOL... we can have TS 2 in our hearts. ;)

ROFL!! :D
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Quoting AllStar17:
Great job Shaun! Thank you!
11:00 AM National Hurricane Center Advisory
-GRAPHICS UPDATE
Tropical Depression Two



What is the purpose here? Is this really necessary?
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It is probably my fault that Texas is getting so much rain. I am teaching an astronomy class and needing clear skies!!!!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Its way too far out, but it looks like the High is protecting the East Coast and Florida from the CV storm predicted by models. Once again, its way too far out, but I think anywhere from LA to MX is at risk for this storm, if it forms...Someone remember that! lol.


try anywhere from honduras to florida - no point in making landfall predictions of a wave thousands of miles away
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The person who made that map must have typed
an ''S'' instead of a ''D''.


But there is also a Tropical Storm symbol there, not the L normally used for a depression.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Its way too far out, but it looks like the High is protecting the East Coast and Florida from the CV storm predicted by models. Once again, its way too far out, but I think anywhere from LA to MX is at risk for this storm, if it forms...Someone remember that! lol.
This will change by August, allowing for more Cape Verde hurricanes to hit areas such as eastern Florida and the Gulf coast.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It isn't.

The person who made that map must have typed
an ''S'' instead of a ''D''.
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Quoting FLdewey:


LOL... we can have TS 2 in our hearts. ;)
LMAO!
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Its way too far out, but it looks like the High is protecting the East Coast and Florida from the CV storm predicted by models. Once again, its way too far out, but I think anywhere from LA to MX is at risk for this storm, if it forms...Someone remember that! lol.
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The east coast low:

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM THU...MID/UPPER LOW WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTION WILL CONT
JUST OFF THE CST TONIGHT THEN DRIFT N FRI AS UPR TRF BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ERN U.S. TIMING AND CVRG OF PRECIP DIFFICULTY AS
TRYING TO PINPOINT VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND LOW DIFFICULT. MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREV FCST WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM WED...BEST PCPN CHCS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR LATER
SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED BY INCOMING MID LEVEL
TROF PUSHING THRU THE OHVLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST. PCPN WILL FOCUS
ON ACCOMPANYING SFC FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROF SAT AFTN INTO SAT
NIGHT AND HAVE UPPED POPS INTO HIGH CHC RANGES THESE PERIODS.
CONCENSUS OF THE MODELS FAVORS A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FOR THE LATE
WEEKEND SO WILL SLOWLY RAMP DOWN POPS ON SUNDAY.
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this blog is hilarious
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There is no tropical storm.


These aren't the droids you're looking for.
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Quoting StormSurgeon:
Off topic but WOW, Paul Goydos just shot a 59 at the John Deere Classic.


Is that really good? ;) I know nothing about golf. I was given two (very nice) free tickets to the John Deere Classic for my company, including nice lodgings, but I gave them away to one of our directors.
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
I do not see any new advisories indicating that it is a TS?? In fact that last NWS advisoring I see was from 1000 CDT this morning. They have not even issued a new advisory that it has made landfall over an hour ago... Like I said, Im still new at this!!


They issued a Tropical Cyclone Update announcing landfall.
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
I do not see any new advisories indicating that it is a TS?? In fact that last NWS advisoring I see was from 1000 CDT this morning. They have not even issued a new advisory that it has made landfall over an hour ago... Like I said, Im still new at this!!


Thats because it isn't one. They messed up on the graphic.
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There is no tropical storm.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

TS Two?...That can't be right...
It isn't.
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I do not see any new advisories indicating that it is a TS?? In fact that last NWS advisoring I see was from 1000 CDT this morning. They have not even issued a new advisory that it has made landfall over an hour ago... Like I said, Im still new at this!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone notice this?

Tropical storm 2? Bonnie?????
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


00Z shows the energy around the same timeframe that the GFS does, but does not develop it at this time
Yup. Shows it as a sharply inverted wave. You can notice the convection north of the low pressure area, looks to me that the ECMWF forecasts hefty upper level winds in that area, could be why it doesn't develop it after all.

ECMWF 00z 168 hours

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48. IKE
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
John Nodar on WKRG 5 here in Mobile just said that TD#2 is expected to make landfall this afternoon and not get any stronger....... Why is this guy even allowed on the air ?


lol....late John....
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J
Quoting bdkennedy:
Did he say it's supposed to make landfall somewhere along the Gulf coast?



He just said again that it's a couple of hours away from landfall and will make landfall in MX and TX
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone notice this?


TS Two?...That can't be right...
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thanks for the update!
It's cracking me to see the mainstream media keep saying TD 2 might form into Bonnie and will make landfall later today! At least my local channel 7 weather girl, I'm beginning to have a faith in Julie Durda now seeing that she uses her own eyes and brain.
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43. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike you saw this?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704545004575353364174224780.html

Do you see anything in the model runs until July 27th for the Gulf?


Don't see anything in that area through July 24th on the parallel GFS.
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Quoting angiest:

Tropical Storm 2?


Yeah...
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Oh, hehehe. Guess they jumped the gun.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


No the Tropical Storm symbol and marking that says "TS Two"
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Did he say it's supposed to make landfall somewhere along the Gulf coast?

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
John Nodar on WKRG 5 here in Mobile just said that TD#2 is expected to make landfall this afternoon and not get any stronger....... Why is this guy even allowed on the air ?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone notice this?


Tropical Storm 2?
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Quoting bdkennedy:
Uhhh, what? The flash flooding that they've been talking about for 3 days?



No the Tropical Storm symbol and marking that says "TS Two"
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ECMWF was showing it yesterday, don't know if it is still showing it today. Looks like out first CV storm is going to be a strong one, and a Caribbean trekker.


00Z shows the energy around the same timeframe that the GFS does, but does not develop it at this time
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Uhhh, what? The flash flooding that they've been talking about for 3 days?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Anyone notice this?

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John Nodar on WKRG 5 here in Mobile just said that TD#2 is expected to make landfall this afternoon and not get any stronger....... Why is this guy even allowed on the air ?
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Anyone notice this?

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Goodnight all. Stay safe,,,, Turn around and don't drown if you come across flooding while driving.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ECMWF was showing it yesterday, don't know if it is still showing it today. Looks like out first CV storm is going to be a strong one, and a Caribbean trekker.


Which would likely make it our first Major Hurricane of the season.
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Quoting extreme236:
12z GFS at 168 hours. Looks like a developing CV storm.



Believable...
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Quoting MagicSpork:
Everybody that lives in a Texas county that is NOT under a flash flood watch or warning wins a free umbrella...

I also love that one county in Oklahoma that's not green...c'mon, they couldn't include one more county just to complete the whole state?


LOL...it's Oklahoma, what do you want?
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Quoting extreme236:
12z GFS at 168 hours. Looks like a developing CV storm.

ECMWF was showing it yesterday, don't know if it is still showing it today. Looks like out first CV storm is going to be a strong one, and a Caribbean trekker.
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Ike you saw this?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704545004575353364174224780.html

Do you see anything in the model runs until July 27th for the Gulf?
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Quoting extreme236:
The satellite presentation does look fairly impressive now.


guess it deserved to be classified after all lol

and after all that bickering lol *rolls eyes*
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12z GFS at 168 hours. Looks like a developing CV storm.

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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