Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Quoting extreme236:


Massively powerful non-tropical 1011mb low that will be weaken within a couple days?



well played lol
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Quoting winter123:

NHC has declared literally blobs a few times already this season... but will not declare this massive powerful storm even an invest with 10% chance. There is something wrong with that.


Massively powerful non-tropical 1011mb low that will be weaken within a couple days?

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Still no circle on the Hybrid low off the East Coast. It's continuing to transition to a Subtropical Storm, will stick around the area for a few days before getting pushed out to sea by the trough which is currently in the midwest. Popcorn convection, which Andrea in 2007 was famous for, continues to pop up around the broad low. They need to notice this feature soon and tag it invest 97L.

No way - gone in 24 hrs...sunny skies here in Cape Fear. Slightest uptick in East winds.
NOAA's got it right:
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&gloss ary=1&highlight=off
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Quoting Levi32:


Thanks. Welcome :) I hope you enjoy the blogs.

Levi, do you think the low off the coast of the Outer Banks has a shot at development?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The NHC have a reason to not circle that area because obviously it isn't a threat to develop into a (sub)tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.


Most of those NWS discussions I've seen say it's going to start weakening tomorrow.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting reedzone:
Still no circle on the Hybrid low off the East Coast. It's continuing to transition to a Subtropical Storm, will stick around the area for a few days before getting pushed out to sea by the trough which is currently in the midwest. Popcorn convection, which Andrea in 2007 was famous for, continues to pop up around the broad low. They need to notice this feature soon and tag it invest 97L.

NHC has declared literally blobs a few times already this season... but will not declare this massive powerful storm even an invest with 10% chance. There is something wrong with that.
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IMO this is will be our next tropical disturbance,perhaps 97l in the next 24hrs as it moves slowly nnw....
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Quoting reedzone:
Still no circle on the Hybrid low off the East Coast. It's continuing to transition to a Subtropical Storm, will stick around the area for a few days before getting pushed out to sea by the trough which is currently in the midwest. Popcorn convection, which Andrea in 2007 was famous for, continues to pop up around the broad low. They need to notice this feature soon and tag it invest 97L.
The NHC have a reason to not circle that area because obviously it isn't a threat to develop into a (sub)tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
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Quoting Buhdog:
Looks like backward flow in SWFL starting this weekend! Look for storms at night and the mornings with gorgeous afternoons! It's like living in Miami without the crap!

1)Miami has afternoon storms and gorgeous mornings
2)What crap are you referring to? Our beautiful vistas, sporting teams, international recognition, film and tv industry, international trade and commerce, and I hope you dont like burger king becaus ethats from Miami too...

My, what an ignorant statement. Enjoy walmart geriatric land.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting TexasGulf:
Houston area is getting quite a bit of rain today. It's not a heavy tropical rain, but rather long slow soaking rain. Very minor street flooding, but nothing significant. It's slow enough that even the worst areas have plenty of time to drain.

There is a mild wind from the South. It's just a cool, gray, overcast day to spend indoors. That's uncommon for SE Texas in July. I had turned off my lawn sprinklers when Alex came through and gave us 6"+ of rain. Due to TD-2, I'll just leave them off for another week.


South of Houston we've had some good downpours.10 in. from Alex last week. 3 in. yesterday. Already 2 today. Clear creek is out of its banks. Too much of a good thing. Although I like that I've not had to water my lawn this summer!
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Did someone freeze the blog?
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Still no circle on the Hybrid low off the East Coast. It's continuing to transition to a Subtropical Storm, will stick around the area for a few days before getting pushed out to sea by the trough which is currently in the midwest. Popcorn convection, which Andrea in 2007 was famous for, continues to pop up around the broad low. They need to notice this feature soon and tag it invest 97L.
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112. IKE
Looks like a quiet time ahead in the ATL. Good news.
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A tropical cyclone is a storm system characterized by a large low-pressure center and numerous thunderstorms that produce strong winds and heavy rain. Tropical cyclones feed on heat released when moist air rises, resulting in condensation of water vapor contained in the moist air. They are fueled by a different heat mechanism than other cyclonic windstorms such as nor'easters, European windstorms, and polar lows, leading to their classification as "warm core" storm systems.

The term "tropical" refers to both the geographic origin of these systems, which form almost exclusively in tropical regions of the globe, and their formation in maritime tropical air masses. The term "cyclone" refers to such storms' cyclonic nature, with counterclockwise rotation in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise rotation in the Southern Hemisphere. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by names such as hurricane, typhoon, tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, and simply cyclone.

While tropical cyclones can produce extremely powerful winds and torrential rain, they are also able to produce high waves and damaging storm surge as well as spawning tornadoes. They develop over large bodies of warm water, and lose their strength if they move over land. This is why coastal regions can receive significant damage from a tropical cyclone, while inland regions are relatively safe from receiving strong winds. Heavy rains, however, can produce significant flooding inland, and storm surges can produce extensive coastal flooding up to 40 kilometres (25 mi) from the coastline. Although their effects on human populations can be devastating, tropical cyclones can also relieve drought conditions. They also carry heat and energy away from the tropics and transport it toward temperate latitudes, which makes them an important part of the global atmospheric circulation mechanism. As a result, tropical cyclones help to maintain equilibrium in the Earth's troposphere, and to maintain a relatively stable and warm temperature worldwide.

Many tropical cyclones develop when the atmospheric conditions around a weak disturbance in the atmosphere are favorable. The background environment is modulated by climatological cycles and patterns such as the Madden-Julian oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Others form when other types of cyclones acquire tropical characteristics. Tropical systems are then moved by steering winds in the troposphere; if the conditions remain favorable, the tropical disturbance intensifies, and can even develop an eye. On the other end of the spectrum, if the conditions around the system deteriorate or the tropical cyclone makes landfall, the system weakens and eventually dissipates. It is not possible to artificially induce the dissipation of these systems with current technology.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


well unfortunately this morning was a fiasco of people arguing about whether the NHC was right or wrong, instead of focusing on what was actually important


By referring to it, you perpetuate it.
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Looks like backward flow in SWFL starting this weekend! Look for storms at night and the mornings with gorgeous afternoons! It's like living in Miami without the crap!
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We stay circle-less.

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Blog's great Levi. If you didn't notice I'm a new blogger.


Thanks. Welcome :) I hope you enjoy the blogs.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I'm not sure this danger is being fully realized.



well unfortunately this morning was a fiasco of people arguing about whether the NHC was right or wrong, instead of focusing on what was actually important
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Quoting CaneAddict:


This is where the drama begins..when people but in.

fair. but to be honest you "but in" with his freedom to post blog pics if he chooses.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting Levi32:
Morning all.

Blog updated.

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, July 8th

Blog's great Levi. If you didn't notice I'm a new blogger.
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CME

A few days ago a solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole should hit Earth's magnetic field on or about July 11th.

The Solar and Dynamics Observatory took this extreme ultraviolet picture some few days ago ago. It shows the spot's magnetic canopy towering over the sun's eastern limb, heralding the appearance of the sunspot's core on July 9th or 10th.

After that, the active region will turn to face Earth and any further eruptions could be geo-effective.
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Quoting CaneAddict:


This is where the drama begins..when people but in.
Sorry. I'm out. Lol.
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Houston area is getting quite a bit of rain today. It's not a heavy tropical rain, but rather long slow soaking rain. Very minor street flooding, but nothing significant. It's slow enough that even the worst areas have plenty of time to drain.

There is a mild wind from the South. It's just a cool, gray, overcast day to spend indoors. That's uncommon for SE Texas in July. I had turned off my lawn sprinklers when Alex came through and gave us 6"+ of rain. Due to TD-2, I'll just leave them off for another week.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok? Many of us including me enjoy his graphics. If you don't like them simply press this and we're done.


This is where the drama begins..when people but in.
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Quoting CaneAddict:


I didnt intend on offending you I was just asking because everyone can pretty much see those same graphics at the NHC website or on the wunderground front page.

i enjoy them, it makes it easy. 1 stop shopping. I could get my tires changed, buy groceries, and buy video games in different places, but wal-mart is easier
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting CaneAddict:


I didnt intend on offending you I was just asking because everyone can pretty much see those same graphics at the NHC website or on the wunderground front page.
Ok? Many of us including me enjoy his graphics. If you don't like them simply press this and we're done.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Well, why are you continuing that today? Do you have any other suggestions?


I didnt intend on offending you I was just asking because everyone can pretty much see those same graphics at the NHC website or on the wunderground front page.
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Morning all.

Blog updated.

Tropical Tidbit for Thursday, July 8th
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
I'm not sure this danger is being fully realized.

Member Since: August 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 525
Nice little swirl approaching Hatteras



Link

WARNING big (35 mb) loop
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Quoting CaneAddict:


Uh hold on here.. I was asking you a question and also I've been here for many years and I havent been known to cause any trouble up untill Friday when i had a big breakdown and took it out on a blogger.


Well, why are you continuing that today? Do you have any other suggestions?
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91. IKE
...DEPRESSION INLAND NEAR TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER...CONTINUES BRINGING RAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO....
1:00 PM CDT Thu Jul 8
Location: 26.0°N 97.7°W
Max sustained: 35 mph
Moving: NW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
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Quoting AllStar17:


Why are you two constantly trying to pick fights with other people on the blog?


Uh hold on here.. I was asking you a question and also I've been here for many years and I havent been known to cause any trouble up untill Friday when i had a big breakdown and took it out on a blogger.
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Does anyone besides me think that the Low east of North Carolina
should be mentioned in the next TWO?
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WHAT!!! 95L was way more organized than this, just sheared to the east. I honestly don't understand their naming criteria.
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Quoting gator23:

I have absoulutely no idea what you are talking about. I no interest in blog drama and I was bieng facitious with my comment


Oh alright, no problem then ;). So anyways I was surprised to see how fast TD2 got to landfall..I was thinking later tonight.
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those outflow boundries in the western gom are 100's of miles long!!!td2 will be all but collapsed and gone by tonight imo...
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Quoting iluvjess:


What is the purpose here? Is this really necessary?
Quoting CaneAddict:


Honestly your purpose of constantly posting these graphics?


Why are you two constantly trying to pick fights with other people on the blog?
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I am in Texas I got a little rain from Alex and drizzle so far from 96L, so i have been very fortunate.
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Nice colors... I would never be able to stay within the lines......
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Quoting CaneAddict:


You must of been one of the ones here the other day when i went off on someone here. I guess unlike everyone else you couldnt understand why i was being like that. I've been here for years and NEVER have been so brutal to anyone.

I have absoulutely no idea what you are talking about. I have no interest in blog drama and I was bieng facitious with my comment
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting CaneAddict:


The ridge of high pressure can change at anytime..

yea and it literally ends where the US begins so Florida is not "protected"
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting CaneAddict:


The ridge of high pressure can change at anytime..


Exactly...It can move to the east and produce a pocket for the storm to move through or become weak.
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Quoting gator23:

to annoy you. i support it.


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Quoting StormChaser81:


Wow, Your predicting landfalls further than models. We need to fire the NHC and just give you the whole office.

Landfallcasting = add that one to the list.

lol


The ridge of high pressure can change at anytime..
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Quoting CaneAddict:


Honestly your purpose of constantly posting these graphics?


Exactly.
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Quoting CaneAddict:


Honestly your purpose of constantly posting these graphics?

to annoy you. i support it.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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