Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Quoting JamesSA:

I seem to recall that Dr. Masters prediction for this season was that it would START OFF slow.


He was kidding around. We've already had a Category 2 hurricane that was almost a Category 3.
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Quoting JamesSA:

I seem to recall that Dr. Masters prediction for this season was that it would START OFF slow.


He also said before he went on vacation he didnt think we would see a TS this week. So far he right on the money
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Quoting Randrewx:




Can you provide some evidence of the ECM supporting what you said please.
My 12Z ECM link is not updated that far out yet.



It doesn't have to be the 12z run, which no is not out there yet. I was speaking of the 0z run, which is the 4th or 5th run in a row to show this by later next week.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
NAEFS Week 2, still boiling hot in the eastern US.



Massive cold PDO and La Nina signatures in the Pacific on the world-wide map.....very ugly temperature pattern in the Atlantic still pointing towards a bad hurricane season for the Caribbean and United States.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That is exactly what I was trying to say.

Humor...it's a good thing. Try it.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Least. Hyper-active season. Ever.

I seem to recall that Dr. Masters prediction for this season was that it would START OFF slow.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS 180 hours moving up in the timeline for a tropical wave to develop in the eastern Atlantic on the model. The ECMWF is seeing it too.

And whats disturbing is how the high pressure (A/B high) would prevent any chance of it turning into the open Atlantic.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I was being facitious. I agree. To say such would be like forecasting landfall based on the XTRP model.

[tick, tick, tick ...]

OK.
BTW, LOL
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Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS 180 hours moving up in the timeline for a tropical wave to develop in the eastern Atlantic on the model. The ECMWF is seeing it too.



Could have a CV disturbance by Tuesday too watch.
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
So we're going to judge the season by what we've gotten in June and first few days of July? If you haven't remembered.. we've already had a Category 2 make landfall in Texas/Mexico.

That is exactly what I was trying to say.
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12z GFS 180 hours moving up in the timeline for a tropical wave to develop in the eastern Atlantic on the model. The ECMWF is seeing it too.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
So we're going to judge the season by what we've gotten in June and first few days of July? If you haven't remembered.. we've already had a Category 2 make landfall in Texas/Mexico.
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Nicely done Shaun! Thanks.
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Quoting reedzone:
Guys I'm not saying there was even a high chance, I've kept my chances for the Hybrid low around 30% for it's whole lifespan. 10% for today. Time is is pushing through, need to see more deeper convection forming around the broad low in order for something really interesting to take shape. I still do feel that if they tagged 90L (Andrea) when it was fully Extratropical, they could of at least tagged this one 97L.


There is no "should have" when it comes to invests. Invests have no criteria. There is a good reason they aren't labeling this an invest and Andrea did get labeled, because she had days and days to sit off the SE coast. This has, oh, 24-36 hours and it's gone. Not enough time. That's why they aren't bothering with it. It may get a nice warm-core look to it but not long enough to become a storm.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
157. txjac
Quoting NRAamy:
Destin....your avatar still cracks me up...

:)


And now you made me look at it ...lol ..and it cracked me up too!
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Quoting reedzone:
Still no circle on the Hybrid low off the East Coast. It's continuing to transition to a Subtropical Storm, will stick around the area for a few days before getting pushed out to sea by the trough which is currently in the midwest. Popcorn convection, which Andrea in 2007 was famous for, continues to pop up around the broad low. They need to notice this feature soon and tag it invest 97L.



Link

very little moisture reaching shore
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Least. Hyper-active season. Ever.

You can't say the activity of an entire season is gonna be low just because it starts out slowly. 2004 is a good example.First Storm : July 31st. Total Storms : 15.
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yeah and it covers most of the catl
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People that are interested in talking about weather and not anything else, head to Levi's blog! Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
Destin....your avatar still cracks me up...

:)
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Guys I'm not saying there was even a high chance, I've kept my chances for the Hybrid low around 30% for it's whole lifespan. 10% for today. Time is is pushing through, need to see more deeper convection forming around the broad low in order for something really interesting to take shape. I still do feel that if they tagged 90L (Andrea) when it was fully Extratropical, they could of at least tagged this one 97L.
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Quoting thermoclined:
looks like dry air, SAL and TUTT's will keep a lid on things for at least a few days
TUTT's? There is only one TUTT that I'm aware of right now out there?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
Quoting stillwaiting:
IMO this is will be our next tropical disturbance,perhaps 97l in the next 24hrs as it moves slowly nnw....


Keep waiting, stillwaiting. Dr. Hansimian is looking more and more on target, at this very average seasonal pace... ;)

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looks like dry air, SAL and TUTT's will keep a lid on things for at least a few days
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Quoting Levi32:


Chances for subtropical development look low right now. We'll have to see if it tries to pull off an interesting look to it during the next 24 hours, but I doubt we'll see significant development. There's not enough time.

Oh. Thanks for the info.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Least. Hyper-active season. Ever.

Yep. Just watching the paint dry...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We stay circle-less.



No .... No .... say it ain't so.
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Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Quoting help4u:
Everyone can take a month vacation from blog,tropics have shut down.

Nope, west pac development:
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1822
It would be nice if this season could give us something to monitor on a nice steady basis, but I have a feeling that its gonna be one of those trickle seasons (1 system every week or 2) turning into a deluge in August/September where we wont be able to keep up.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Levi, do you think the low off the coast of the Outer Banks has a shot at development?


Chances for subtropical development look low right now. We'll have to see if it tries to pull off an interesting look to it during the next 24 hours, but I doubt we'll see significant development. There's not enough time.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Persons suggesting what NHC should or should not do, would be well advised to read the

NHC Mission Statement:

Mission
(Why We Exist)

To save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic

efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings,

forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical

weather, and by increasing understanding

of these hazards through global outreach.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mission.shtml

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Quoting winter123:

NHC has declared literally blobs a few times already this season... but will not declare this massive powerful storm even an invest with 10% chance. There is something wrong with that.
Massively powerful? Ok...?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21195
sure is alot of dry air in the catl for all that warm water....the A/B high looks like it has pushed the ITCZ down to SA...SAL, shear and hot dry air rule! Here come the TUTT's!
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Quoting extreme236:
Is it interesting? Yes. Massively powerful? No.


I was actually serious about what I said earlier about how I feel many do not really understand the actual criteria for a tropical cyclone. People can post pics all they want and say what they want, but a pic does not tell you by any means what is going on with the system itself

It was not posted to ridicule people, of course I am sure some took it that way
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Quoting help4u:
Everyone can take a month vacation from blog,tropics have shut down.

u again... now we get the lecture about how you will be right and why does the NHC want to make fools of themselves...
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Quoting reedzone:
Still no circle on the Hybrid low off the East Coast. It's continuing to transition to a Subtropical Storm, will stick around the area for a few days before getting pushed out to sea by the trough which is currently in the midwest. Popcorn convection, which Andrea in 2007 was famous for, continues to pop up around the broad low. They need to notice this feature soon and tag it invest 97L.



it'll start its move north tonight and by saturday should be gone moving over colder waters,now the aoi off columbias north coast that has a decent chance of becoming 97l!!!
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Quoting help4u:
Everyone can take a month vacation from blog,tropics have shut down.


Okay good riddance help4u.
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Quoting extreme236:


Massively powerful non-tropical 1011mb low that will be weaken within a couple days?


yup, it rained here ealier, why wasnt that declared?
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Is it interesting? Yes. Massively powerful? No.
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Everyone can take a month vacation from blog,tropics have shut down.
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Quoting extreme236:


Massively powerful non-tropical 1011mb low that will be weaken within a couple days?



well played lol
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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