Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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2007 appears to be an analog year. Regardless of ACE and lack of US landfall (which people still of course believe there has to be US landfalls to be active which is completely wrong), that season sucked for many, Central America especially. If Dean and Felix occurred in 2010 judging by the patterns in place, especially Dean, would have been drawn more northward and perhaps into the central GOMEX.
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225. xcool
ECMWF go out 10 days meaning development
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Quoting FLdewey:
No, what we need... is more cowbell.

I got a fever...and the only prescription, is more cowbell!!
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Quoting IKE:
2010 Atlantic season reminds me of....



Some of those storms are either not labeled correctly or just flat out wrong.
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We won't be coming close to beating 2005, however, it is still one of our best analog years, if not the best.
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220. IKE
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Lets hope not.. that was a very rough season for the Caribbean. Just imagine what would have happened if Dean made it through the Yucatan Channel..



12Z ECMWF South America view shows...systems coming off Africa and shows waves and systems affected Honduras, Guatemala and the Yucatan and Belize.

USA looks protected by strong high pressure

Link
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June came in with a negative NAO of -0.82

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Quoting DestinJeff:


Ike, your post reminds me of ...

the same one from the previous 4 blogs or so.

are you secretly "apectre" or whoever it is that posts the 2005 / 2010 comparison everyday?

j/k. thus far does feel more 2007 than, say, 2005!
Aspectre is his name. He's one of those people that I think that they are machines, I think Drakoen is a machine too. LMAO!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
I say bring out the purple dino with the guns. Dart guns for the kids of course.....LOL
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it's the kind of comedy that's great when your brain has been destroyed at work, and you don't want to have to really think about it....the "no-brainer" comedy....

;)
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Thanks Levi. With the setup we may see a Francis, Jeanne, or the "A" storm track this year.
And with a even stronger intensity than those systems because of the record breaking SSTs. Uh-oh, JFV just got happy.
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Not much to report on the 12z ECMWF.
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212. xcool
ike - 1969 year
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Quoting IKE:
2010 Atlantic season reminds me of....



See? everything went around the central panhandle of fla where I live. We had a drought actually. so when people say the 2005 season was horrible, i say yeah, hot and dry.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Jerry...actually, these guys are boring me...STORMTOP has a certain style....


;)


ahhh...you enjoy that low comedy...LOL
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Quoting IKE:
2010 Atlantic season reminds me of....



Lets hope not.. that was a very rough season for the Caribbean. Just imagine what would have happened if Dean made it through the Yucatan Channel..
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Jerry...actually, these guys are boring me...STORMTOP has a certain style....


;)
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205. IKE
2010 Atlantic season reminds me of....

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Quoting NRAamy:
Jerry....we need STORMTOP!!!!


;)


Why, darlin'? We have a number here every bit as entertaining...
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Quoting xcool:
too much SAL
Yup. Nasty sandstorm over the eastern Atlantic, it should relax soon though.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Jerry....we need STORMTOP!!!!


;)
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Quoting RM706:
Time for the show .. comon over ... http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html

Use link button. Link
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Good thing to remember though is that trade winds have remained at normal to below-normal speeds across the Atlantic so far this month. We have yet to register a month this year without slower-than-normal trade winds. That pattern will likely continue throughout the season. The NAO is closer to neutral and weak positive right now so the Azores High is stronger, causing the increase in winds shown by the ECMWF.

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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I agree. Plus it's not even starting off slow. On average we don't get our first named storm until July 9, and we don't get our first hurricane until August 10th.

Plus 2004 was hyperactive with a total ACE of 225, and it didn't get its first named storm until August! (Alex was a TD on July 31st, didn't get named until the following day).

But I do believe many people hyped it up a bit more than it should have been. Several people were saying that we would most likely get Bonnie and Colin by the 15th, and maybe even Danielle. I don't see that anymore, but the season will still be a very active one later on.
I was thinking Colin by July 15th.
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197. xcool
too much SAL
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Wow, the attitude of people in here today...it's like their scripts have all run out or something
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Levi - any thoughts what the tracks may look like? I know precision is impossible but at tracks similar to 2007 (that is what we have seen so far).


The season as a whole should look like 2007 in regards to a lot of storms tracking farther west before recurving, but it should be extended farther north than 2007. In other words, storm tracks won't likely be confined to just the Caribbean. The pattern favors storms also tracking farther north, north of the Caribbean, but still maintaining a WNW course and threatening the United States and Canada.

For specifically next week, if we were to get a Cape Verde system in 8 days, the pattern is a little iffy. The GFS is hinting at a trough pattern developing east of the US which might try to recurve it, but the other models aren't as aggressive and keep the bridged ridge pattern across the North Atlantic which would direct it farther west. We'll have to keep monitoring the situation if development out there becomes a real possibility, but right now it's not much more than speculation.

In any case, the pattern from the 2nd half of this month onward will be favorable for our Cape Verde season to kick-off, and it won't be long now before there will probably be almost no break between storms until we reach October or November.
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Quoting JamesSA:

I seem to recall that Dr. Masters prediction for this season was that it would START OFF slow.
If you call this slowwww
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yes, trades look too fast lately
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12z ECMWF out to 240 hours shows little over the next 10 days. The Cape Verde system fizzles on the model. It shows a much stronger A/B high than the GFS which is probably why. High pressures and fast trade winds are not favorable for tropical waves to develop in the central-eastern Atlantic as it ruins surface convergence.
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Quoting Randrewx:
It is never fully out this early. We'll have it within 30 minutes or so.


I am fully aware of that.
Are you the Dr. Master's board Met or something?

If not...please stand down.


Don't know what you're talking about...

"And the latest 12Z run does matter.
I should have it loaded by now...let y'all know.


I was simply telling you that no it is not usually fully out by now.
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189. RM706
Time for the show .. comon over ... http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
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Interesting..
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Quoting JamesSA:

I seem to recall that Dr. Masters prediction for this season was that it would START OFF slow.


I agree. Plus it's not even starting off slow. On average we don't get our first named storm until July 9, and we don't get our first hurricane until August 10th.

Plus 2004 was hyperactive with a total ACE of 225, and it didn't get its first named storm until August! (Alex was a TD on July 31st, didn't get named until the following day).

But I do believe many people hyped it up a bit more than it should have been. Several people were saying that we would most likely get Bonnie and Colin by the 15th, and maybe even Danielle. I don't see that anymore, but the season will still be a very active one later on.
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Time to go fishin and quit wishin....
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Right now it's all long-range model forecasts but the pattern is leaning towards a very favorable one for our first Cape Verde development, with predominant upper ridging and upper easterlies across the MDR, and I would not be surprised to see it come during the 2nd half of this month.

This is a great pattern for Cape Verde development. Look at the straight shot of upper easterlies all the way up to 20N extending across most of the tropical Atlantic.

GFS 200mb Day 15:

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I'm going into lurk mode...for now...
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Quoting Levi32:


It doesn't have to be the 12z run, which no is not out there yet. I was speaking of the 0z run, which is the 4th or 5th run in a row to show this by later next week.


Ridge looks too strong for any development...trade winds need to relax some...but enjoy the break...more storms will develop later.
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Not as pronounced on the 12z at day 7:

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Quoting Randrewx:
It doesn't have to be the 12z run, which no is not out there yet. I was speaking of the 0z run, which is the 4th or 5th run in a row to show this by later next week.


Yes Levi...I have been following it.
It doesn't appear to be much of anything to me yet.

And the latest 12Z run does matter.
I should have it loaded by now...let y'all know.



It is never fully out this early. We'll have it within 30 minutes or so.
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Quoting Levi32:


It doesn't have to be the 12z run, which no is not out there yet. I was speaking of the 0z run, which is the 4th or 5th run in a row to show this by later next week.

12z ECMWF shows the system emerging at 168 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
The tropics (or weather in general) is comparable to the stock market.

I guess a person can predict/guess on what kind of hurricane season it will be based on certain criteria. The problem is that the criteria usually changes.

One can make a killing in the stock market based on studying future trends. However, other unforeseen events can, and will occur, which can changes the whole scheme of things.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.