Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Quoting weatherman12345:
where do most of the cape verde storms head?


west
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We shouldn't make age an issue into this conversation, I won't exploit for my own purposes Tampa's youth and inexperience. Kidding Tampa lol, I always love your input on systems.
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Quoting bjdsrq:


Just throw in Roker eating his boogers on air and that will be the icing on the cake. That guy nauseates me.


thats pretty descriptive...did he get caught doing that?
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272. xcool
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WoW the ITCZ has really jumped North now...as it should and right on Cue!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
TD 2... didn't really amount to much eh?
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I wouldn't believe what some say on here in reference to their age.


NOw Jeff your not saying that one would not represent there age properly just for petty and sympathy are you...LOL MAYBE!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting bjdsrq:


Just throw in Roker eating his boogers on air and that will be the icing on the cake. That guy nauseates me.


I've never watched him. The only one I really like anymore is Carl Parker. He used to be on NBC here in Houston. He does a good fair job and does not overhype TWC or anything else. I usually just get my info from here or other websites because I can get up to date info faster than they can get it on the air and get their graphics changed.
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267. xcool
La Nina developing, could mean more hurricanes, hindering oil clean up



by Randolph E. Schmid / Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on July 8, 2010 at 11:28 AM


WASHINGTON -- The climate phenomenon known as La Nina appears to be developing, threatening more bad news in the efforts to clean up the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

When a La Nina occurs there tend to be more hurricanes than normal in the Atlantic and Caribbean regions, which include the Gulf of Mexico.

The federal Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that La Nina conditions are likely to develop in July and August.

La Nina is marked by an unusual cooling of the sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Water temperatures in that area can affect air pressure and winds, resulting in changes in the weather in many parts of the world.

In a La Nina, wind shear is increased over the Pacific and reduced over the Atlantic. Wind shear is the difference in strength of winds at low levels compared to higher level winds.

A strong wind shear reduces hurricanes by breaking up their ability to rise into the air, while less shear means they can climb and strengthen.

Thus, the Climate Prediction Center notes, "there tend to be more Atlantic hurricanes during La Nina because of this expanded area of low vertical wind shear."

In addition, during a La Nina "more hurricanes form in the deep tropics from African easterly waves. These systems have a much greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually threatening the U.S. and Caribbean islands," according to the center, a part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The climate center's current hurricane forecast for this season is for 14 to 23 named storms of which 8 to 14 are expected to be hurricanes and 3 to 7 major hurricanes.

The center noted that during June, sea surface temperature continued to decrease across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with cool areas expanding across the central and eastern Pacific. In addition, increased rainfall persisted over Indonesia, while the area of reduced rain expanded westward over the western and central equatorial Pacific.

Combined with changes in the winds over the Pacific "these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect developing La Nina conditions" which are likely to continue through early 2011, CPC said.

The last La Nina occurred from the fall of 2007 to the spring of 2008. The opposite mode, El Nino, with warm Pacific conditions, has been in place since the spring of 2009.


Link

go here .....
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264. xcool
MiamiHurrica wow 22 tropical depressions that alot ;)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok? Many of us including me enjoy his graphics. If you don't like them simply press this and we're done.


Better to press "ignore user", and be REALLY done...
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LOOK at the peak of 2004-2005....we are currently at the low on this graph.....this graph never goes just straight to the top as many might believe! Granted before one of the Kiddies tries to correct me.....that is a Global chart and not just the Atlantic Basin but, it is what is is for the Globe and just so happen it peaked in 2005 also!

Here was my Summary i posted the the 2010 season.....

Summary:

Based on my rating system and plugging the numbers together, my best estimate for the 2010 Atlantic Basin Tropical Outlook is for:

70% chance of Above Average Conditions leading to

16 Named storms--the average is 9.6

10 Hurricanes--the average is 5.9

4 Major Hurricanes--the average is 2.3


I will enjoy hearing the debates of my thoughts and keep in mind these trends can change!



Thanks,

Tim
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
103.2*F in Macon, Georgia right now. Heat index of 107*F. We could use some rain in this area.
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Quoting weatherman12345:
where do most of the cape verde storms head?


Uh, west. :|
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Quoting xcool:
now i think more like 15 named storms.
I went with 22 tropical depressions, 19 named storm, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting cctxshirl:

Yes, South TX is getting soaked--I'm dreading my drive home after work--it's gonna be nasty.


Houston too. Looks like a lot of us in Texas are getting rain from a front to a TD!
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255. Daveg
Drowning already here in Austin, and MUCH, MUCH more is on the way.
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254. xcool
now i think more like 15 named storms.
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253. xcool
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Quoting Floodman:


Hell, DFW is getting pretty wet about now too!

Yes, South TX is getting soaked--I'm dreading my drive home after work--it's gonna be nasty.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


That's a bold statement when your talking about mother nature. Never say Never with mother nature.


Obviously, but my forecast is only for 18 storms, so I'm going to express a strong opinion supporting that forecast. I have good reason to believe we won't be even coming close to touching 2005.
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I am starting to worry about Vivian Brown on the TWC. She just said El Nino allows for more hurricanes. Huh? TWC has gone down hill. And another guy that is on right now said that you can't even look on the map and find the center of circulation with TD #2. Huh again?
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Quoting seajunkie:
Hey Floodman!! I am still around.

Looks like South Texas is getting quite a soaker.

D


Hell, DFW is getting pretty wet about now too!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Back to "next week should be interesting".


Eh, maybe, maybe not. The CPC says yes, the models say no (exception being the GFS forecastin a CV storm in 7 days).
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Quoting weatherman12345:
where do most of the cape verde storms head?
Anywhere basically from The Yucatan to Bermuda.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting StormChaser81:


That's a bold statement when your talking about mother nature. Never say Never with mother nature.
He didn't say never, lol, j/k.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting weatherman12345:
where do most of the cape verde storms head?


Out to sea, usually in an average season. The patterns in place in 2010 are going to draw systems more westward however.
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Quoting Levi32:
We won't be coming close to beating 2005, however, it is still one of our best analog years, if not the best.


That's a bold statement when your talking about mother nature. Never say Never with mother nature.
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One thing though is that even though TD 2 didn't get named or things appear to be rather quiet during the next week according to the models (at this time), we could easily see a spike in activity at any point later in the month. Conditions will be favorable next week in the Carribean and GOM, so keep an close watch.
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236. RM706
Pat, I did some linking in your honor. http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
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Quoting IKE:


Exactly. Dennis was closest to me but it came in far enough west to not be a huge problem.

Cindy and Dennis were early north central GOM hits in 2005...look where most of the stronger storms went later in the season like Katrina and Rita.

Storms follow patterns for a season...2010 like 2007 so far, not 2005.


Neither 2005 or 2007 featured a near-Major hurricane in the Gulf in June, every season is unique to its own.
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Hey Floodman!! I am still around.

Looks like South Texas is getting quite a soaker.

D
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233. Daveg
Holy .... batman, it's freakin' raining!

TD2 might now have become much, but it's sure a rain maker here!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


I don't think any season will ever be forecasted to beat 2005 -- even in a mid-season forecast. It will just be something that happens, eventually.
Absolutely agree. Even if we have the warmest SSTs, the strongest La Nina, the lowest NAO, etc... no one is going to forecast a season more active than 2005.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
231. xcool
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230. IKE
Quoting twhcracker:


See? everything went around the central panhandle of fla where I live. We had a drought actually. so when people say the 2005 season was horrible, i say yeah, hot and dry.


Exactly. Dennis was closest to me but it came in far enough west to not be a huge problem.

Cindy and Dennis were early north central GOM hits in 2005...look where most of the stronger storms went later in the season like Katrina and Rita.

Storms follow patterns for a season...2010 like 2007 so far, not 2005.
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LOL @ "more cowbell"...I almost posted that very same thing the other night in here...
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I double-dog dare anyone to post a photo of the SNL Cowbell skit....

;)

maybe you could insert JFV in it...

;)
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2007 appears to be an analog year. Regardless of ACE and lack of US landfall (which people still of course believe there has to be US landfalls to be active which is completely wrong), that season sucked for many, Central America especially. If Dean and Felix occurred in 2010 judging by the patterns in place, especially Dean, would have been drawn more northward and perhaps into the central GOMEX.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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