Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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326. xcool
IKE MADE GOOD Point 2010 JUST LIKE 2007 .
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Quoting StormW:


Correct...and with that set up, storms are going to be less likely to weaken approaching the U.S. East Coast.


And that's the bad part of it, is that the storms that do form and approach the eastern seaboard could be bad ones. The eastern seaboard including New England has to be on the lookout this year.
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Quoting StormW:


Sticking with my numbers

Total Named Storms: 17-19
Hurricanes: 9-11
Intense Hurricanes: 4-5
I released my first numbers in April and actually raised them on June 1st. I don't see much of a reason to lower numbers.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
I see they added Harris and Waller Counties to the Flood Warning now.


I haven't seen a warning for Harris or Waller yet come through my email. nor is it popping up on my grlevel3 warnings feed.
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Most of the reason 2010 shouldn't get as bad as 2005 lies in the SST profile of the ocean. This year, although we have a lot of warm water in the tropics like 2005, there is also a lot of warm water across the north Atlantic which results in less-focused heat in the tropical Atlantic, because net upward motion gets spread out instead of concentrated fully in the deep tropics.

Also, the Gulf of Guinea (south of western Africa) and the South Atlantic are not nearly as cold as they were in 2005, and this also acts to spread out the heat more and not focus it as much in the tropical north Atlantic. A cold south Atlantic focuses heat and convergence northward which creates a more active ITCZ and pushes it farther north over the Atlantic and west Africa. Having the south Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea not as cold this year as they were in 2005 doesn't give us as strong of a focusing of the heat in the tropical north Atlantic.

Overall, the pattern is very much like 2005, but not as "perfect" as 2005 had it, which is why we saw the mega-season. I still expect 2010 to be a historic and dangerous season though, and I have no changes from my forecast back in May.

Here are the maps to compare and what I'm talking about.

2010 SST Anomalies July 8th:



2005 SST Anomalies July 9th:


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316. xcool
lmaO
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!


And a good afternoon to you Storm!
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Hey Storm W alot of posters lowering their storm totals for season after today. You agree?
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313. Chigz
Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!

What do we think about whole lot of convection in ITCZ around 30-35W and 5N? Seems like it's persisting really well and has some spin! Also, it looks like it's slowly gaining some latitude!
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you know hurricaneswirl I felt sorry for the guy but that was so funny that I nearly fell off of my upstairs patio

anyway what is this I am hearing about there may be a disturbance exiting the South American coast and entering the Caribbean.
enlighten me please I have been caught up with sill TD2
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
I see they added Harris and Waller Counties to the Flood Warning now.
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308. xcool
:0
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Quoting xcool:
...La Nina is marked by an unusual cooling of the sea surface in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Water temperatures in that area can affect air pressure and winds, resulting in changes in the weather in many parts of the world.

...

The last La Nina occurred from the fall of 2007 to the spring of 2008. The opposite mode, El Nino, with warm Pacific conditions, has been in place since the spring of 2009.




From 2007 through present we have gone La Nina, El Nino, and La Nina. It really seems more cyclical than unusual...
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LOL But was that kite surfer alright?


I dunno lol. IIRC he went to the ER for the majority of the rest of the day.. But they were all short-term things. He's fine today.
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thanks levi!
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Ooh! Ooh! This would be a great time to post that kite surfer in Tropical Storm Fay!

Link
LOL But was that kite surfer alright?
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The rain here in Cypress (TX) has been perfect---pauses in between showers to allow the precip to soak in; there has been relatively little runoff. Until a couple of weeks ago we were at about 600-700 KBDI, the grass and trees were showing serious stress and I was afraid of a repeat of last summer where we had to give hay to the cattle and we lost a few trees. Soil moisture is good and I hope this will get us through the dog days of summer. I just don't want to have to build an ark.
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Quoting AllStar17:
It appears that there may be a disturbance exiting the South American coast and entering the Caribbean.

I was checking that out myself. Anybody have any information to share about the blobs near South America?
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Statement as of 2:17 am CDT on July 08, 2010

... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Houston intercontinental...

A record rainfall of 2.32 inches was set at Houston intercontinental
yesterday. This breaks the old record of 2.31 set in 1973. Rainfall
this month is now 8.64 inches which is the eighth wettest July in
city history.

Hobby Airport has received 9.88 inches of rain in July. This is the
seventh wettest July on record for this location.
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I'm at NAS Kingsville working right now (about 90 miles north of Brownsville/40 S of Corpus. Right now it's raining steady moderate to hard, but intermittent and the wind is almost non-existent.

The farmers in this area are ready to harvest, and stand to lose their entire crop. We have had over 8 inches of rain in the past week.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Boring day on the blog.... How about if I post some weather man bloopers? Anybody?


Ooh! Ooh! This would be a great time to post that kite surfer in Tropical Storm Fay!

Link
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Quoting Levi32:


Obviously, but my forecast is only for 18 storms, so I'm going to express a strong opinion supporting that forecast. I have good reason to believe we won't be even coming close to touching 2005.


Just curious about your statement, wait till you get into college your peers will try to eat you alive during college presentation.

Keep up the good work.
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Quoting hcubed:


west
out to sea
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Quoting downdraugh24:


no not really in fact he helps me a lot ,i m trying to learn from this blog and from other sources .Just wanted to know the difference between now and 2005 when most if not all forecasters did not forecast that many storm


There's the problem: no one knew in 2005 that the season was going to develop as it did...no one knows that this season will develop like that either but we see some similarities
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Boring day on the blog.... How about if I post some weather man bloopers? Anybody?

I'd like to see some weather man bloopers :D
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2pm EDT
National Hurricane Center Update
Graphics Update



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292. Chigz
What do we think about whole lot of convection in ITCZ around 30-35W and 5N? Seems like it's persisting really well and has some spin! Also, it looks like it's slowly gaining some latitude!

Levi?
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Boring day on the blog.... How about if I post some weather man bloopers? Anybody?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting RTLSNK:
103.2*F in Macon, Georgia right now. Heat index of 107*F. We could use some rain in this area.


Aye, looks like it's our turn today, and tomorrow from the looks of it. It certainly feels like its 103 degrees outside! Ugh.
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that "monster" ;) ULL has at least delivered us here on the ILM penninsula a much needed afternoon rain shower. No waves and none coming except about 3' SW wind chop about 2am Saturday morning...
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Quoting Floodman:


It's the opinion he's held since earlier in the season and has supported with what fact is available...obviously you have a bit of a problem with the meaning of the word "opinion", particularly where it is used in regards to weather, if you expect him to prove it


no not really in fact he helps me a lot ,i m trying to learn from this blog and from other sources .Just wanted to know the difference between now and 2005 when most if not all forecasters did not forecast that many storm
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Quoting downdraugh24:


It's the opinion he's held since earlier in the season and has supported with what fact is available...obviously you have a bit of a problem with the meaning of the word "opinion", particularly where it is used in regards to weather, if you expect him to prove it
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285. xcool
lmao
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It appears that there may be a disturbance exiting the South American coast and entering the Caribbean.
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Quoting Levi32:


Obviously, but my forecast is only for 18 storms, so I'm going to express a strong opinion supporting that forecast. I have good reason to believe we won't be even coming close to touching 2005.

is there strong scientific facts behind that opinion?
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Quoting FLdewey:
Oh yeah today we have a "new" member who is "11 years old"... Soon we'll have a fetus blogging from the womb.

Now I got a FEVER!

You know I'm still here right?! :(
(BTW I Agree with Levi's forecast for 18 storms)
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Back to my lawn work.....something that a 50yo can't do without input from the 50yo wife.....LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We shouldn't make age an issue into this conversation, I won't exploit for my own purposes Tampa's youth and inexperience. Kidding Tampa lol, I always love your input on systems.


HEY HEY If i turn my 50 around i could be 05
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting weatherman12345:
where do most of the cape verde storms head?


west
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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