Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
July 8th 1995

2 named storms
1 hurricane
0 major hurricanes
Next storm formed on July 12th
Season ended with 19 named storms

July 8th 1998

0 named storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
1st storm formed on July 27th
Season ended with 14 named storms

July 9th 2004

0 named storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
1st storm formed on July 31st
Season ended with 15 named storms

July 8th 2007

2 named storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
Next storm formed on July 31st
Season ended with 15 named storms

July 8th 2008

2 named storms
1 hurricane
1 major hurricane
Next storm formed on July 18th
Season ended with 16 named storms
2010 IMO will be exactly the same as 2008 in terms of numbers.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
475. IKE
Quoting kuppenskup:


Yeah but it's just a comparison. We're not saying it's going to be that active but it's always interesting to know where we stand as compared to other active years.


Especially when maps are being put on here every week showing similarities in conditions between 2005 and 2010 on a certain date.

If someone wants to put maps on here showing a comparison, I see nothing wrong with showing the number of systems to date in each year.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting KoritheMan:


Water vapor animations are good for detecting the mid- to upper-levels of the atmosphere.


Thanks

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Reference to the A Whale in the Gulf "Louisiana Ingenuity" in CNN article.

"As with any new tool, adaptations are necessary to make it more effective. You learn as you work. We have already made mechanical and operational changes designed to adapt to the conditions we found in the Gulf. We designed, fabricated and installed an innovative new system of conduits to direct oily water from the vessel's intake jaws to its tanks. This system was fabricated by one of the most experienced regional marine repair hands, the Buck Kreihs shop from right here in New Orleans. In short, one of the most sophisticated cargo ships built by Hyundai in South Korea was adapted to the oily waters of the Gulf by Louisiana ingenuity." said Grantham.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
July 8th 1995

2 named storms
1 hurricane
0 major hurricanes
Next storm formed on July 12th
Season ended with 19 named storms

July 8th 1998

0 named storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
1st storm formed on July 27th
Season ended with 14 named storms

July 9th 2004

0 named storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
1st storm formed on July 31st
Season ended with 15 named storms

July 8th 2007

2 named storms
0 hurricanes
0 major hurricanes
Next storm formed on July 31st
Season ended with 15 named storms

July 8th 2008

2 named storms
1 hurricane
1 major hurricane
Next storm formed on July 18th
Season ended with 16 named storms
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...me neither
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Quoting tkeith:
BP says with no storm interuptions...end of July.

You believe em?


eye sore don't.


Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 483
i hope this slow period lasts until August so BP can "get it done"

from a cnn article titled

"relief well drilling ahead of schedule":

"After several days of rough seas, improved weather Thursday was allowing oil skimmers to restart their cleanup efforts in the Gulf, said Allen. He added that forecasters expected good weather for the next seven to 10 days, and he hoped to make significant progress in the operation during "a weather window that we may not see again this summer."

read full artice at
http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/07/08/gulf.oil.disaster/index.html?hpt=T2
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Quoting cloudy0day:
Question if you have patience for a beginner… what do you use to tell if a spin is an upper or lower level feature? I'm watching the little spin on the northeast side of the Yucatan, just for learning, to distinguish what layer I'm seeing.


surface winds can be looked at using ASCAT analysis - this is a satellite product that does 2 passes a day. For mid and high level flow, the maps for different pressures indicate what different levels. Ie 500mb chart is higher than a 700mb chart.
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Quoting kuppenskup:


Yeah but it's just a comparison. We're not saying it's going to be that active but it's always interesting to know where we stand as compared to other active years.



Agreed.

Thanks, Ike. Always good to know where we stand and when comparatively, imo. Oh, yeah, that danged Dennis! Trouble, trouble.
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Quoting cloudy0day:
Question if you have patience for a beginner%u2026 what do you use to tell if a spin is an upper or lower level feature? I'm watching the little spin on the northeast side of the Yucatan, just for learning, to distinguish what layer I'm seeing.


Water vapor animations are good for detecting the mid- to upper-levels of the atmosphere.

You can also use CIMSS's vorticity analysis of various atmospheric heights (850 mb, 700 mb, 500 mb, and 200 mb).
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Quoting KarenRei:
Anyone know how to get upper atmospheric temperatures (say, 200mb)? After all, it's not really the SSTs that matter, but the difference between the surface temperature and that of the upper atmosphere, and I've seen comments from Dr. Masters before about systems developing faster or slower than would be expected due to this.


Only way I know of are soundings.
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Just saw National News, BP says they will have the oil stopped by the end of this month, problem is finding anyone that will believe them.
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Quoting weathermancer:
Any word when the relief wells will be ready for the GOM ?
BP says with no storm interuptions...end of July.

You believe em?
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then why not compare to other seasons and not just 2005?

I have yet to see the comparisons to 1995, 1998, 2004, 2007 or 2008 in terms of what storms we had on July 8th

maybe I should do that now, brb
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Question if you have patience for a beginner… what do you use to tell if a spin is an upper or lower level feature? I'm watching the little spin on the northeast side of the Yucatan, just for learning, to distinguish what layer I'm seeing.
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Quoting weathermancer:
Any word when the relief wells will be ready for the GOM ?


Last I heard it's still early August, assuming weather permits.
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Anyone know how to get upper atmospheric temperatures (say, 200mb)? After all, it's not really the SSTs that matter, but the difference between the surface temperature and that of the upper atmosphere, and I've seen comments from Dr. Masters before about systems developing faster or slower than would be expected due to this.
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aspectre "Comparisons of...[SeaSurfaceTemperatures, TropicalCyclonePotential, and plus26degreeDepth charts]"
436 atmoaggie "Really wish you would toss in a "we don't, however, know what the 2005 data would be using the current algorithm" or some such caveat..."

Sorry, meant to hit Preview for a personal "side-by-side" view, and hit Post by mistake.
As for your caveat, I'd just assumed that it was a given...
...and that the AtlanticOceanographic&MeteorologicalLaboratory would do its best to make such charts comparable between years.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
I think it is very important to note that the comparisons to 2005 were solely meant in terms of the possible conditions

Never have I heard anyone say or even imply we could get 28 storms; most of the predictions have been between 16-23 which is still very very likely

To show the numbers now on July 8th is kind of silly really


Yeah but it's just a comparison. We're not saying it's going to be that active but it's always interesting to know where we stand as compared to other active years.
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Okay, listen up everybody! Turn up your volumes, announcement. I got good news. We're extending arts and crafts time by four hours today!
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Any word when the relief wells will be ready for the GOM ?
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 483
I think it is very important to note that the comparisons to 2005 were solely meant in terms of the possible conditions

Never have I heard anyone say or even imply we could get 28 storms; most of the predictions have been between 16-23 which is still very likely

To show the numbers now on July 8th is kind of silly really; when about what 5% of all storms have formed before this date even in above-average seasons

by that logic we would still have 20 named storms
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453. JLPR2


Current GFS wich is still running is persistent with the formation of a Cape Verde system as soon as 78hrs
I guess the area it develops is the area in Mid Africa
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
452. IKE
Quoting Dakster:
That is quite a difference IKE!


Three days this buzz saw started....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Yes and it could last for awhile from what I've seen on the models.


I don't foresee things getting truly active (as in, back to back storms) until two to three weeks.

Alas, I think we are entering into a quiet period. Probably our only real break between now and October.

Even 2005 had such periods.
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That is quite a difference IKE!
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Before I go im noticing showers & thunderstorms have increased in association with the tropical wave midway between Africa and the Winward Islands. Also what's up with that spin off the Carolinas? Any updates?
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There could still be some CyberPolice out there, trying to undermine science in the wake of AGW.
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 483
447. IKE
Quoting kuppenskup:


Thanks for the update. I'll go back to my homework now. See yeah!


lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
446. IKE
Comparisons between July 8th, 2005....

4 named systems
2 hurricanes
1 major cane(as a matter of fact, Dennis was a 150 mph buzz saw 5 years ago today)


July 8th, 2010....

1 named system
1 hurricane
0 major canes
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting hydrus:
I thought it was T.D.2?
Same thing. Official designation is "AL02" or "02L" in all records, now.
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It's the Cyclonic Dog Days.
When everything slows down to a hot steamy crawl... even with weather systems.


Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 483
Quoting USSINS:
LOL, Atmo. I'm barely smart enough to know that there's a great deal I don't know. But, of a few things I am highly certain. ;P
I am highly certain that there is a great deal that everyone, including myself, does not know.
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Quoting IKE:


Yes and it could last for awhile from what I've seen on the models.


Thanks for the update. I'll go back to my homework now. See yeah!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The people in where Alex made landfall are getting pounded by the rains of 02L.

I thought it was T.D.2?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
433.??? I thought we were all right, all the time. Even when in complete opposition to each other...


You're exactly right. How dare he bring logic to the blog?!
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Quoting weathermancer:


I found that there is allot of sarcastic mis-information... usually due to failed attempts at humor. lol



What I've been reading isn't sarcasm, just bad information.
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438. IKE
Quoting kuppenskup:


Nice little break right? The calm before the Storms!


Yes and it could last for awhile from what I've seen on the models.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting atmoaggie:
??? I thought we were all right, all the time. Even when in complete opposition to each other...


LOL, Atmo. I'm barely smart enough to know that there's a great deal I don't know. But, of a few things I am highly certain. ;P
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Quoting aspectre:
Comparisons between the same ordinal dates in 2005 and 2010
8July2005

8July2010

8July2005

8July2010

8July2005

8July2010

Really wish you would toss in a "we don't, however, know what the 2005 data would be using the current algorithm" or some such caveat...
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Quoting USSINS:
Reading some info here today I cannot agree with at all, period.

Folks, follow the NHC. I don't always agree with them either, but rest assured they are the authority, best info by far.

We've got some good, smart folks here, but they are not always right, and do not know it all. And, certainly, neither do I, but I do a know a few things. Some of what I've read on the last couple of pages simply doesn't fly, period.


I found that there is allot of sarcastic mis-information... usually due to failed attempts at humor. lol
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 483
Quoting tropicfreak:




I remember that day, heck I remember I woke up to this clip on TWC. One of the most chaotic days of my life I will admit being in the eyewall.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting USSINS:
Reading some info here today I cannot agree with at all, period.

Folks, follow the NHC. I don't always agree with them either, but rest assured they are the authority, best info by far.

We've got some good, smart folks here, but they are not always right, and do not know it all. And, certainly, neither do I, but I do a know a few things. Some of what I've read on the last couple of pages simply doesn't fly, period.
??? I thought we were all right, all the time. Even when in complete opposition to each other...
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Sorry, meant to hit PreviewComment instead of PostComment
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Just saw this...

If the sounding from corpus this morning is accurate (as long as it lasted) would explain TD2's inability to get it together. Thin layer of very dry does not a TC make.

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Quoting IKE:


Nope. Next TWO should say....TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS:)

Ah yeah....nice and quiet.


Nice little break right? The calm before the Storms!
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Reading some info here today I cannot agree with at all, period.

Folks, follow the NHC. I don't always agree with them either, but rest assured they are the authority, best info by far.

We've got some good, smart folks here, but they are not always right, and do not know it all. And, certainly, neither do I, but I do a know a few things. Some of what I've read on the last couple of pages simply doesn't fly, period.
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428. IKE
Quoting kuppenskup:
Hey all-Any activity out there besides TD # 2?


Nope. Next TWO should say....TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS:)

Ah yeah....nice and quiet.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hey all-Any activity out there besides TD # 2?
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Looks like Cdn. Maritimes will get the remains of L2 and the ULL being pulled north-east into the advancing trough this weekend. Need the rain here.
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 483

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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