Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Quoting Tazmanian:



lol lol lol and you say am bad lol
People may joke about your posts at times but at least you have a valid excuse...
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Quoting jaevortex:


That would be the scariest bit of all.. if you like that you should check out my last blog :P


I did... hilarious :)
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2074. beell
Quoting Levi32:
....those SW winds coming into Panama continued right across and didn't converge until they were well up into the Caribbean. Remember all the convection that was going off? It was just everywhere. There was a whole dang ton of energy going rampant in our area of the world.


A by product of the ocean-land circulation over NW S America and low surface pressures just off coast in the far SW the Caribbean? A permanent mini-monsoon or gyre during the season?

Anywayz, I'll keep my eyes and mind open. I may be convinced of this "new" way of looking at things by season's end.

And because I am such a nice guy...you may have the last word on this paticular exchange tonight if you wish!

Appreciate your thoughts.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the disturbance in the Atlantic that the NHC gives a 0% chance of development has potential to become a powerful Hurricane in the EPAC.


It's persisted all day. Had it moved more northerly it probably would've been a threat to develop in the Atlantic. I agree though that there is some EPAC development potential.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like the disturbance in the Atlantic that the NHC gives a 0% chance of development has potential to become a powerful Hurricane in the EPAC.



vary un likey right now wind shear is vary high in the E pac
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Quoting hunkerdown:
You say "from a senior", do you mean high school senior, elder, or senior citizen ? Oh, and shall I call you out on your grammar ?????



lol lol lol and you say am bad lol
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Looks like the disturbance in the Atlantic that the NHC gives a 0% chance of development has potential to become a powerful Hurricane in the EPAC.
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Personal arguments might be better conducted using WU mail



noteded
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Quoting centex:
I think you know details but don't know how to apply it. It takes experience. Keep up the study because you have potential but I can out forecast you using just internet images. I know 1/10 the science but get forecast better than you. I question when you give poor explanation, like the dmax/dmin thing you did a poor job and was not learning experience for bloggers. From a senior I'm just trying to get you on a better track. Lesson is you’re arrogant and forecaster needs to be scientific and apply experience.. You’ve let the blog respect get to your head, especially considering how your forecasts which have been wrong and differ from professionals who have been right. There are several other professional bloggers who don’t make your mistakes. Just challenging you to up your game it does not impress me.
You say "from a senior", do you mean high school senior, elder, or senior citizen ? Oh, and shall I call you out on your grammar ?????
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hey Levi32 why not this put centex ip on Ignore and his commets will be gone this like that
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Well centex is sure getting himself on a lot of ignore lists right now. He has no idea what he is talking about.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Personal arguments might be better conducted using WU mail
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ECMWF at 216 hours showing CV disturbance.

GFS at 66 hours showing CV system (probably a TS, GFS is very low on resolution)

NOGAPS also at 66 hours showing a CV system.

CMC shows a strong wave, not a depression at 72 hours. Fairly weak.

Fair amount of model support. I want to see ECMWF 00z before saying anything.. it shows something similar to the CMC by 72 hours. It was earlier jumping onto a NOGAPS intensity with this wave.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Hour 144 is very interesting


Are you Joshing me, I think I sense some sarcasm.
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2062. Levi32
2058. centex 8:22 PM AKDT on July 09, 2010

Um ok. First of all show me where I was recently wrong and others were right. You challenged me on TD 2 and you couldn't provide proof even after I asked you twice to quote me from the statements you claimed I made. Unless you bring proof, I don't have to listen to that.

And obviously, my forecasts will not always turn out correct.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its the green area that scares me :)


That would be the scariest bit of all.. if you like that you should check out my last blog :P
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Quoting jholmestyle:
GFS at 66.

Link

Somewhat in line with the 18z nogaps.

Link

We'll see what happens.


Hour 144 is very interesting
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2057. Levi32
Quoting beell:


It truly was a semi-rare broad cyclonic flow over the entire basin that we have not seen since. I possibly would give more credit to the waves (i think there were 3 of them e-w in the Caribbean Basin)than you. In combination with the MJO and oceanic heat.




Even that very fact that 3 of them contributed to development makes it a unique situation. There were many features contributing energy. It was a massive conglomeration of heat.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
2056. beell
Quoting Levi32:


Hey Beell. Well sure, tropical waves aren't the driver of such a pattern. It was mostly thanks to the MJO being over that part of the world and the record amounts of oceanic and atmospheric heat content in the Caribbean. The tropical wave helped pull in the southeasterly wind surge, but I hadn't seen such a southerly field of wind from east of the islands all the way through the Caribbean before. It was quite something.


It truly was a semi-rare broad cyclonic flow over the entire basin that we have not seen since. I possibly would give more credit to the waves (i think there were 3 of them e-w in the Caribbean Basin)than you. In combination with the MJO and oceanic heat.


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2055. Levi32
Looking at the surface wind vector anomalies for June 23rd, two days before Alex became TD 1, there was a massive buildup of heat going on in the tropical Atlantic. The normal ENE trade wind flow through the Caribbean was shoved up to 20N and replaced by moist southeasterlies. And check out the massive anomalous monsoonal circulation in the western Caribbean. The monsoon trough was displaced farther north than it usually is....those SW winds coming into Panama continued right across and didn't converge until they were well up into the Caribbean. Remember all the convection that was going off? It was just everywhere. There was a whole dang ton of energy going rampant in our area of the world.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
2054. JRRP


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GFS at 66.

Link

Somewhat in line with the 18z nogaps.

Link

We'll see what happens.
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2052. Levi32
.messed that up
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting jaevortex:


ROFL!


Its the green area that scares me :)
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Quoting Orcasystems:
If your interested in going to Florida... I just got an interesting new tourist map for Florida :)

Its posted in my Blog at remark 753 :)


ROFL!
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2049. Levi32
Quoting beell:


Evening, Levi,
So this monsoonal typhoonal flow/trough in the Caribbean would exist in the absence of passing waves?


Hey Beell. Well sure, tropical waves aren't the driver of such a pattern. It was mostly thanks to the MJO being over that part of the world and the record amounts of oceanic and atmospheric heat content in the Caribbean. The tropical wave helped pull in the southeasterly wind surge, but I hadn't seen such a southerly field of wind from east of the islands all the way through the Caribbean before. It was quite something.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
GFS at 54 hours. Has a low at 30 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_054l.gif
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2047. xcool


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If your interested in going to Florida... I just got an interesting new tourist map for Florida :)

Its posted in my Blog at remark 753 :)
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2045. beell
Quoting Levi32:
Alex's formation was more than just a decoupled tropical wave. It formed a low along the wave axis underneath convection in the eastern Caribbean but then the surface low decided to race ahead into the area of lowest pressures which was in the western Caribbean. Once there, it dug in its heals and largely stalled out, while gradually becoming better defined. The mid-level center with the focus of the heat energy, along with a 2nd tropical wave behind the first one, lagged behind and was sluggish in its westward progress. Once it finally caught up, the system became vertically stacked within the area of greatest pressure falls, and at that point the system was finally able to feedback and wala we had Alex.

The most interesting part of the whole process were the very pronounced southeasterly trade winds throughout the entire central-eastern Caribbean causing a massive piling up of air, along with a monsoon trough displaced to the north over the western Caribbean. That's where the similarities with typhoon development came in. Tropical waves were in there helping, but they only did part of the work. It was a very large-scale pattern-based development.


Evening, Levi,
So this monsoonal typhoonal flow/trough in the Caribbean would exist in the absence of passing waves?
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2044. Levi32
Alex's formation was more than just a decoupled tropical wave. It formed a low along the wave axis underneath convection in the eastern Caribbean but then the surface low decided to race ahead into the area of lowest pressures which was in the western Caribbean. Once there, it dug in its heals and largely stalled out, while gradually becoming better defined. The mid-level center with the focus of the heat energy, along with a 2nd tropical wave behind the first one, lagged behind and was sluggish in its westward progress. Once it finally caught up, the system became vertically stacked within the area of greatest pressure falls, and at that point the system was finally able to feedback and wala we had Alex.

The most interesting part of the whole process were the very pronounced southeasterly trade winds throughout the entire central-eastern Caribbean causing a massive piling up of air, along with a monsoon trough displaced to the north over the western Caribbean. That's where the similarities with typhoon development came in. Tropical waves were in there helping, but they only did part of the work. There was a massive area of heat getting bundled together from several different features. It was a very large-scale pattern-based development.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting JLPR2:


ha!
But I have given and received cookies before. :P
*takes the jar of cookies from MH9 and runs away*
LOL! XD
If they were the same cookies he was giving out a few days ago, they were stale...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Probably wont see anything significant until after mid-July.



Wow the dust has really let up, Levi was right the wave we saw last night emerge from Africa 'sacrificed' itself to the dust, creating a more moist environment in front of the two waves behind it. MJO is in no hurry to leave our basin either.
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Quoting Surfcropper:
Asking the gallery for Carribean moving pics for the girls


for facebook
Caribbean moversjust for you
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2040. centex
I'm following the wave entering the Caribbean; do not expect anything next couple of days. But this train of waves kicking up in western Caribbean needs special attention until it stops happening. You don't get this stuff in the scientific journals.
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.... wondering if anyone is even at the NHC today ... lol ...
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2038. beell
Quoting bappit:

Wasn't Bastardi promoting the typhoon formation meme for Alex? Does he deserve credit for it?

It will be interesting to see the NHC's description of events in their tropical cyclone reports since they were tracking tropical waves in their discussions for both Alex and TD2. These waves may have been tilted with height which could explain the slow development and displacement of mid-level from surface circulations. (You were tracking two circulations at different levels of the atmosphere with the antecedent to TD2.)

Kudos to the Navy for their accurate forecast on the development of Alex. He formed in the box they warned even though the bulk of convection was well to the east when they issued the warning. If I remember correctly, strong convection formed in the area of their warning the day after they issued the warning. That does not sound like a case where convection was driving the show. They were watching something else.


The wave axis?
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2037. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well I'm off to bed, have a pleasant evening everyone!


night Miami!
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Probably wont see anything significant until after mid-July.

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Well I'm off to bed, have a pleasant evening everyone!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
BP’s containment effort has been delayed by bad weather in the Gulf, but forecasts on Friday suggested there would be a window of up to nine calm days
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2033. bappit
Quoting StormW:


The Typhoon like setup is one that doesn't actually spawn from a tropical wave. The flow for the past few weeks in the Atlantic has been mainly out of the SE in the Tropics. With the A/B high having been weaker, the trades have been slower, and allowing for heat and moisture to build up in the Caribbean. This is the "monsoonal flow" you've heard me and Levi speak of. Then, with Mean Sea level pressures having been below average, and then when the high weakens somewhat, and orients slightly north, we get lowering pressures in the Caribbean. Lowering pressures and heat build up allow for more vertical motion, or rising air. A large area of lower pressure (not to be confused with a closed low) develops. These processes also aid in the upper level anticyclone to be maintained around or over the area. This all allows for thunderstorms to build, rain, and release latent heat energy. The upper level anticyclone evacuates this rising air;heat, and pressures lower further. Because there is no pre-existing low (surface closed low, tropical wave, etc), it takes longer, as well as the area being so large. Once an area is established that becomes dominate with vorticity, then we can start to see a surface circulation. In fact, the process sorta reminds me of what we call CISK (Conditional Instability of the Second Kind)

CISK

Wasn't Bastardi promoting the typhoon formation meme for Alex? Does he deserve credit for it?

It will be interesting to see the NHC's description of events in their tropical cyclone reports since they were tracking tropical waves in their discussions for both Alex and TD2. These waves may have been tilted with height which could explain the slow development and displacement of mid-level from surface circulations. (You were tracking two circulations at different levels of the atmosphere with the antecedent to TD2.)

Kudos to the Navy for their accurate forecast on the development of Alex. He formed in the box they warned even though the bulk of convection was well to the east when they issued the warning. If I remember correctly, strong convection formed in the area of their warning the day after they issued the warning. That does not sound like a case where convection was driving the show. They were watching something else.
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2032. centex
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm well MH09 shear is still decreasing in front of that wave near E Carib and also 850 vort has been on the increase if this trend continue we could see 97L between the next 48-72 hours


shear


shear tendency


850 vort


850 vort 3 hours ago
I hope not. I've leaved in texas coast now central for 40 years and do not remember two systems within week, maybe I don't remember so well.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm well MH09 shear is still decreasing in front of that wave near E Carib and also 850 vort has been on the increase if this trend continue we could see 97L between the next 48-72 hours


shear


shear tendency


850 vort


850 vort 3 hours ago
Development at this point is unlikely.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
hmm well MH09 shear is still decreasing in front of that wave near E Carib and also 850 vort has been on the increase if this trend continue we could see 97L between the next 48-72 hours


shear


shear tendency


850 vort


850 vort 3 hours ago
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2029. JLPR2
I'm really curious as to what the ASCAT will show with our AOI in the Caribbean
Last pass:


Or maybe it will miss it XD
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If you're bored, join tropics chat - Link
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
Quoting JLPR2:


ha!
But I have given and received cookies before. :P
*takes the jar of cookies from MH9 and runs away*
LOL! XD
LOL!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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