Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Question. Is that low off NC attached to a front

PS conus got banned, all his post got removed
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SO S America Blob and 2nd African Wave are worth watching thanks Good night everyone
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MechEngMet,I always appreciate a gentleman.
Thank-you.
Appear to be the lonestar on development in the Florida Straits. Waiting to hear from someone to see if there is any model support out there as I am too lazy to do that sort of investigating.
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Good evening all. (Chicklet, the bourbon is over by the ice bucket. Help yourself.)

TD2 is gone, but there are a train of waves heading over. That east coast mess may cause some problems but I don't think it will go warm core. It would need a high over top as well.

All in all the weather may support a couple of weeks of good progress on the BP 'BLOWOUT'. It is not a 'spill', it is a 'blowout'. Any media report, newsprint, internet, or talk-show that calls it a 'leak' or 'spill' is actively downplaying the truth.

I'll get off my soapbox now, but the BP mess really tugs at my senses. I may pop back in later for a bit, but now I have to go make gumbo for the weekend.

Have a good evening all, play nice, and don't let the trolls get to you.
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Awww, poor 96L...once so promising, but now it's toast...

the Cleveland Cavaliers of tropical weather systems...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
UKMET and ECMWF develop it so it's definitely worth my attention.


Possibly another Caribbean forming storm. We've had 3 so far, even though TD Two formed in the GOM, it initially developed in the Caribbean. If this does end up forming, I hope it does not affect So. Texas or No. Mexico.
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Hey xcool. Will this possably be like bertha of 08?.Where they classified it an area of interest over land?
No and no. Bertha came out looking like a monster, this is just your average AEW with a mid level circulation.
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869. xcool
Baltimorebirds :)
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Why are there no river gauges for the lower 800 miles of the Rio Grande?


My guess is that after farmers on both sides of the border get through using water from the Rio Grande, places like Laredo have maybe 2-3 feet of water that flows. In drought, there isn't even that much. There were times that we couldn't launch our bass boat in the Rio Grande, not enough water to run the outboard.
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Quoting AllStar17:
The area of disturbed weather emerging off of the northern coast of South America and into the Southern Caribbean needs to be watched. Well the convection is rather meager, there is some good 850 mb vorticity, and it is heading into a favorable environment.
UKMET and ECMWF develop it so it's definitely worth my attention.
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Loop
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The area of disturbed weather emerging off of the northern coast of South America and into the Southern Caribbean needs to be watched. Well the convection is rather meager, there is some good 850 mb vorticity, and it is heading into a favorable environment.
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I'll venture a guess our little blob by the Florida straits has at least half a chance and raise you one.
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861. JLPR2
Quoting Orcasystems:


WE??
I assume you have a mouse in your pocket?

"I" don't want anything. I don't want to see what happens when a Cat X hits an oil spill.


yeah we, when storms form that far out dont they tend to recurve? :)
Consider that one. :D
Better a cane out to sea, than a storm in the Caribbean/Gulf
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859. xcool
JLPR2 hey
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Why are there no river gauges for the lower 800 miles of the Rio Grande?


Why do we have 10 million new illegal immigrants per decade? The answer is always the same. Chi Chi don't wanna ...
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Quoting USSINS:
Levi, you need me to post the substantiating material or did you get it worked out?


I would welcome whatever you have to offer. I'm not even sure if you were understanding me correctly before.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
That Low off the NC coast looks like it has a lot of energy. Will that front coming east have enough to push it away
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Does anyone have a picture of the next wave over Africa the one with model support?
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Quoting JLPR2:


This one will probably clean the area for the next one, taking the Sal with it and leaving a nice area of moisture, now all we need is favorable shear.


WE??
I assume you have a mouse in your pocket?

"I" don't want anything. I don't want to see what happens when a Cat X hits an oil spill.
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850. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
hey ;)


hello! :D
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Levi, you need me to post the substantiating material or did you get it worked out?
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848. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The one behind it has model support from the NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS. This one is very nice too though.


This one will probably clean the area for the next one, taking the Sal with it and leaving a nice area of moisture, now all we need is favorable shear.
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847. xcool
hey ;)
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846. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:


If they are too strong, which 30 knots is, they can hinder development, but even light easterly wind shear is not necessarily bad for a developing tropical cyclone, especially if it's a tropical wave like they all are in the central-eastern Atlantic. We'll have to see how strong they really get, but man, if we get a band of easterly shear that strong across the basin that far north, I'll be amazed.


that would be great XD Bring on the super easterlies! LOL!
We would probably see lots of lopsided storms, unless it gets to hostile, then no storms at all there.
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I saw the aftermath. We were in Baton Rouge 2 days after the storm for a family emergency before heading back to prepare for Ike (which hit here days later). There was a lot of damage there from the trees in particular.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Another nice looking one like Miami09 and Wunderkid pointed out earlier, but it will probably loose its convection like its predecessors, so not much to worry about, without model support there is no immediate problem :)

The one behind it has model support from the NOGAPS, ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS. This one is very nice too though.
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Also, condolences to the families of the airplane crash victims. Such a horrible disaster! So sorry.
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842. JLPR2
Another nice looking one like Miami09 and Wunderkid pointed out earlier, but it will probably loose its convection like its predecessors, so not much to worry about, without model support there is no immediate problem. :)

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Hi y'all, been out and about all day.
This caught my attention this evening, but haven't read through enough to see if anyone thinks it will develop:
;TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N80W TO 08N77W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ADVECTING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 74W-82W. WHILE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 75W-81W.

Caribbean - Rainbow Loop
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Quoting TXnovice:
It's slow so I have some questions. I live 20 miles or less (as the crow flies) from the coast (near Houston). Can any of you tell me what the extent of the damage has been with a category 3 or bigger storm at about this distance? I'm just curious and the tropics are quiet. I was here for Ike, but it hit a bit to the East of Houston and I believe it was a cat 2 at landfall (could be wrong, had no power at that time).


Man I was in Baton Rouge when Gustav's eyewall wobbled over and made direct landfall in the city. I believe we had Cat 1 winds.

Man - it was crazy. Trees and power lines down like you wouldn't believe. Some areas of the city that were heavily forested had a lot of home damage from falling limbs. My boss had a big hole in one of the kids bedrooms because a tree limb fell in.

Had a lot of rain and flooding in a lot of roads but I don't remember any bad river (the MS) or creek flooding in BR proper. Some of the little tributaries east and west of BR might have though.

Power was out for a while - 5 days for me.

Keep in mind that BR is like 70 miles inland and Gustav was a 2 at landfall in Cocodrie.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
look like more like 30 north not 20 north
No it's 20˚N. Look at the coordinates on the left hand side. At 30˚N it predominantly weak westerlies.
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Aside from the subtropical storm of the east coast where is the next likely invest?
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Quoting JLPR2:


Aren't those at the CATL a little too strong?
Could those hinder development or limit it, like it happened to Dean in 07?


If they are too strong, which 30 knots is, they can hinder development, but even light easterly wind shear is not necessarily bad for a developing tropical cyclone, especially if it's a tropical wave like they all are in the central-eastern Atlantic. We'll have to see how strong they really get, but man, if we get a band of easterly shear that strong across the basin that far north, I'll be amazed.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
I hope the system off the east coast stays away from Beantown. Celtics still better that heat
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Quoting Levi32:
Long-range 18z GFS still showing an amazing amount of easterlies at 200mb racing across the Atlantic all the way up to 20N!

Impressive, but they are in the the 30 knot range in the western Atlantic so conditions might be marginal rather than favorable.
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yes yes, fair enough. I've had my rant.

Peace ya'll. Carry on.
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829. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:
18z GFS still showing an amazing amount of easterlies at 200mb racing across the Atlantic all the way up to 20N!



Aren't those at the CATL a little too strong?
Could those hinder development or limit it, like it happened to Dean in 07?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You're just giving him what he wants, and that is attention. Now that he is on all of our ignore lists we can move on. Fair enough?


we yea until tomorrow when he comes back with another name lol

he is ignored now though, just wish admin would do something more permanent
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It's slow so I have some questions. I live 20 miles or less (as the crow flies) from the coast (near Houston). Can any of you tell me what the extent of the damage has been with a category 3 or bigger storm at about this distance? I'm just curious and the tropics are quiet. I was here for Ike, but it hit a bit to the East of Houston and I believe it was a cat 2 at landfall (could be wrong, had no power at that time).
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


he doesn't deserve to be allowed to post on here, he is nothing but a pest really

agreed I would be embarrassed too
You're just giving him what he wants, and that is attention. Now that he is on all of our ignore lists we can move on. Fair enough?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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