Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Quoting Levi32:


I jumped at that very small part of your post, not the whole comment.

Your statement may get differing answers depending on how we define when cyclogenesis is occurring. If we look in hindsight at a tropical cyclone that already developed, track it down to the very first thunderstorm cluster, and then declare cyclogenesis at that point, then you may be correct in saying that.

However, the whole process of an established tropical disturbance organizing into a tropical cyclone happens at BOTH the low and mid levels of the atmosphere at the same time. That is unavoidable when you have deep convection warming the air column and causing pressure falls up through at least 700mb during development. They always have structure up into the mid-levels.

This is ESPECIALLY true when talking about tropical waves in the central-eastern Atlantic which are best-defined at 650mb, the mid-levels, and therefore cyclogenesis often starts up there first.



Levi, you're making this way more complicated than it should be. Cyclogenesis does occur largely and most often from the surface. Every one with any history of following the tropics will verify that. My statement was simply true. Yes, the system has to evolve to mature, not unlike people, young or old. But, it's often difficult to be in two places at the same time, right. So, there is an evolving, and normal, average cyclogenesis usually occurs from the surface. So, let's stop disputing that. I do completely agree with you that cyclo can begin at the mid, even the uppers, but they have to find the surface and are not as frequent as surface cyclogenesis. You know this.

Again, there's no burden for me to prove anything. My statement is true, yet you said I was wrong. But, I do understand your desire and reasoning to promote the context in which you state. More imporantly, you focused on the least important part of the post regarding SAL. There were other points such as the differences I suggested between CIMSS and EUMETSAT, the differences between dry air and dust, and whereas dust (not saying dry air) resides in the mid-levels, not the surface; and therefore, would be less of an inhibitor at the surface than dry air.

So, let's agree that this issue is settled.

Here is one abstract on the studies that in certain concentrations/patterns that dust serves as (CCN) cloud condensation nuclei and can act to actually enhance TC development activity. Impacts of Saharan dust as CCN on the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone There are others, but it's been a couple of years since the topic was kicked around that I remember. I'm not sure it's a proven theory, and I think we all agree that in heavy concentrations dust is certainly prohibitive to mature development.

Maybe this is enough to pique your interests, get a good scoop and come back and share it with us.

If you have something else, shoot me a WUmail, I'm weary of yacking about it on the board. Enjoyed the mostly civil and respectful discussion. Thanks.

Have a good sleep. I'm out.
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Another AOI to keep track of:


*****REPOST*****
11:00 pm Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Advisory

Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
974. Marou
bonsoir everybody
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Quoting Headindaclouds:
Hi Levi,

Here is an interesting paper on dust and hurricane development that you might find interesting:

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1003/1003.4769v1.pdf

Maybe no category fives this year.


Thanks :) Looks interesting. I'll have to read it later after I'm done with school.
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:

see that trough comming across from the west? that should take it out to sea.
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AOI/XX/XL
MARK
35.1N/75.0W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
970. JRRP
Quoting xcool:



do you have the link of dust forecast from NGP ?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


fading away
yes it is:) i saw the spin looking like it was firing some nice thunderstorms earlier, and the mets. said nothing about it so i figured i better get on here and find out what it was.
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Looking at things, it should be rather quiet the next week or two. ITCZ is still fairly depressed and inactive, GFS tries to develop the wave currently coming off Africa but, with no support. The way I look at it is that they might actually be able to spot those relief wells. With the numbers forecast, any inactive day is a good one.
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fading away
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Hi Levi,

Here is an interesting paper on dust and hurricane development that you might find interesting:

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1003/1003.4769v1.pdf

Maybe no category fives this year.
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thanks for the info:)
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Quoting sarahjola:

I've been watching that spin over the Yucatan. i have asked several times what it is, but i guess no one on here knows cuz i never got an answer. do you know? if so, thanks in advance for any info you can give on it:)


Upper low.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Quoting sarahjola:

I've been watching that spin over the Yucatan. i have asked several times what it is, but i guess no one on here knows cuz i never got an answer. do you know? if so, thanks in advance for any info you can give on it:)

a area of
daytime heat induced
GOM seabreeze
convergence zone thunderstorms
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting sarahjola:

I've been watching that spin over the Yucatan. i have asked several times what it is, but i guess no one on here knows cuz i never got an answer. do you know? if so, thanks in advance for any info you can give on it:)


No concerns.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting RavensFan:
as an outside opinion. more this season than any other, there has been tons of bickering on this blog about all different things not including weather. I hardly ever post anything unless I have a question, but i'm getting kinda sick of all the fighting. On average, I see just as much arguing about non weather topics as I do about weather related discussions and that makes me sick. Its a weather blog, fight somewhere else so those of us just reading don't have to deal with all of it and can just read about the current tropical conditions.
-Joe

thank you! this is what i posted a little while ago-
938. sarahjola 3:15 AM GMT on July 09, 2010
well, i guess were not talking tropics tonight. just for fairness from admin:
(When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.)
the funny thing is, (and I'm sure I'm gonna tick alot of people off right now.)this is all that happens on here anymore. people calling people trolls cuz they don't agree with each others opinion. people being down right rude with people. its all getting real old. i have asked weather questions for the past 30 minutes and people can't stop saying troll, or bickering about difference of opinion long enough to answer a weather question on a weather blog. truly sad:(
Action: Quote | Modify Comment
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Quoting AllStar17:


It is not an opinion. It is a fact. And, I totally agree. It is unfortunate. Some people just make user names to troll the blog, not to add to the discussion. On the other hand, at least the several experts remain.

Thank God they haven't abandoned this blog yet. I imagine the thought has entered into their heads a few times.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Any thoughts on the Southern Caribbean? I see a potential troublemaker down the line with the area emerging from the northern coast of South America into the Southern Caribbean. 850 mb vorticity is pretty good.


I had been watching that. However, all the models say that it's going to march straight into Nicaragua/Costa Rica.
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Quoting RavensFan:
as an outside opinion. more this season than any other, there has been tons of bickering on this blog about all different things not including weather. I hardly ever post anything unless I have a question, but i'm getting kinda sick of all the fighting. On average, I see just as much arguing about non weather topics as I do about weather related discussions and that makes me sick. Its a weather blog, fight somewhere else so those of us just reading don't have to deal with all of it and can just read about the current tropical conditions.
-Joe


It is not an opinion. It is a fact. And, I totally agree. It is unfortunate. Some people just make user names to troll the blog, not to add to the discussion. On the other hand, at least the several experts remain.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting AllStar17:


Thanks for your input. I tend to get a bit overanxious when there is nothing going on, so I just try to find something to watch.

I've been watching that spin over the Yucatan. i have asked several times what it is, but i guess no one on here knows cuz i never got an answer. do you know? if so, thanks in advance for any info you can give on it:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
as an outside opinion. more this season than any other, there has been tons of bickering on this blog about all different things not including weather. I hardly ever post anything unless I have a question, but i'm getting kinda sick of all the fighting. On average, I see just as much arguing about non weather topics as I do about weather related discussions and that makes me sick. Its a weather blog, fight somewhere else so those of us just reading don't have to deal with all of it and can just read about the current tropical conditions.
-Joe
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Quoting Levi32:


Well you have to keep in mind that the area immediately north of Panama and Columbia naturally has elevated low-level vorticity because of the monsoon trough lying in that area. The tropical wave nearing 80W is trying to fire up some convection, but is going to get shoved straight west into central America and will likely get moderately sheared as it goes, so I don't expect any trouble from it. Another tropical wave just now passing up the windwards may have to be watched down the road when it gets farther west, but for now I don't see any significant threats.



Thanks for your input. I tend to get a bit overanxious when there is nothing going on, so I just try to find something to watch.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting AllStar17:


Any thoughts on the Southern Caribbean? I see a potential troublemaker down the line with the area emerging from the northern coast of South America into the Southern Caribbean. 850 mb vorticity is pretty good.


Well you have to keep in mind that the area immediately north of Panama and Columbia naturally has elevated low-level vorticity because of the monsoon trough lying in that area. The tropical wave nearing 80W is trying to fire up some convection, but is going to get shoved straight west into central America and will likely get moderately sheared as it goes, so I don't expect any trouble from it. Another tropical wave just now passing up the windwards may have to be watched down the road when it gets farther west, but for now I don't see any significant threats.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
Hey All...
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Quoting Levi32:


They are surface troughs.


Any thoughts on the Southern Caribbean? I see a potential troublemaker down the line with the area emerging from the northern coast of South America into the Southern Caribbean. 850 mb vorticity is pretty good.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting AllStar17:


I believe it is a surface trough of low pressure. Not sure, though.


Thank you
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Quoting bassis:


anybody?


They are surface troughs.
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I see maybe 97L and 98L come soon
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Quoting bassis:


anybody?


I believe it is a surface trough of low pressure. Not sure, though.
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946. xcool


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Quoting bassis:
Ignorance rearing it's ugly head. The dotted yellow lines when you click the front buttons. what do they mean?


anybody?
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Wow, quite a wave coming off of Africa.
Goodnight!
GOES Atmospheric Animations

Look at North of Cuba/Bahamas
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Relief well drilling ahead of schedule

New Orleans, Louisiana (CNN) -- The first relief well BP is drilling in the Gulf of Mexico could intercept the leaking Deepwater Horizon well in seven to 10 days, the man heading the federal response to the oil crisis said Thursday.
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.
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11:00 pm Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Advisory
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
A little history on the selected analog years from CSU.

1958 - #2 Tropical Storm Becky didn't form until August 8th.

1966 - #3 Tropical Storm Celia didn't form until July 14th

1969 - First storm of the season formed on the 25th of July. Season total 18 storms.

2005 - On this date we were tracking Cat4 Dennis through the N Caribbean.

A little extra in addition to the CSU analog I feel carries a lot of weight.

2004 - First storm formed on July 31st. Season total 15 storms.
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coming at me in Grenada! maybe!
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well, i guess were not talking tropics tonight. just for fairness from admin:
(When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.)
the funny thing is, (and I'm sure I'm gonna tick alot of people off right now.)this is all that happens on here anymore. people calling people trolls cuz they don't agree with each others opinion. people being down right rude with people. its all getting real old. i have asked weather questions for the past 30 minutes and people can't stop saying troll, or bickering about difference of opinion long enough to answer a weather question on a weather blog. truly sad:(
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We will likely not see another invest for another 48 hours. I do believe 97L will be found in the extreme southwestern Caribbean or just off the eastern seaboard.


I don't know about that. Even the hyperactive CMC isn't picking those up. GFS wants to start the Cape Verde machine in about a week though. I'll be watching to see if it hangs on to call over the next few days before I give it any consideration.
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Quoting AllyBama:
will!!..is that you?..


uh hu is me hiya Ally
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935. xcool
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will!!..is that you?..
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Not much to watch this evening, so I'm heading out. Have a pleasant evening everyone!
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Quoting AllStar17:


I'm a bit confused by the bolded part. Did you mean "pushed into Mexico rather than Texas though", or something else?


Ummmmm??? I'm confused too. Lol. No biggy just joking.
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Quoting xcool:
nice wave at 35w .
The actual wave is located around 29˚W.

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jasoniscool you got mail lol
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the one off the NC shouldnt be there long enuff to tagg
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000
WTNT32 KWNH 090251
TCPAT2

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 05 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL022010
1000 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2010


...TROPICAL RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS TEXAS...

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF
TEXAS. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST.

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 99.2
WEST...OR 240 MILES...385 KM...SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS AND 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTH OF LAREDO TEXAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 20 MPH...30 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 10 PM CDT

...TEXAS...
GUADALUPE HADS VICTORIA 5.16
BLOOMINGTON 0.5 N 3.60
VICTORIA RGNL ARPT 2.86
FORT HOOD/GRAY AAF 2.47


THE TROPICAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF UP TO 10 INCHES FOR
LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...26.1N 99.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...20 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER
TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

GERHARDT

FORECAST POSITIONS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 26.1N 99.2W
12HR VT 09/1200Z 27.2N 101.0W......POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24HR VT 10/0000Z......DISSIPATED
$$

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927. xcool
nice wave at 35w .
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We will likely not see another invest for another 48 hours. I do believe 97L will be found in the extreme southwestern Caribbean or just off the eastern seaboard.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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