Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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My first post on this wunderful (he, he...) blog.

Take this in considiration.

This season has already cost 15 times more ($77 million to $1210 million), and killed about eight times more (6 to 52) than the whole previous season.

Maybe we should not just stare blind at the number of namned storms...

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Hi Everyone,

Been off most of the day. Just checking in....Is there any AOI coming up or are we in quiet mode right now?
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SAl is goin to put a choke hold on that emerging wave....
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1022. xcool
lmao
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1021. Grothar
Here is an image of the dust and the waves. Miamihurricanes009 always steals my best images. See if anyone can have an argument over this one. Blog is getting to placid.

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1020. xcool
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1019. xcool
nice wave off cost af
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1018. Bielle
Thank you for the map, JLPR2
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1017. JLPR2
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1016. bassis
Thank you all for answering questions while it's slow. It's late here on the east coast and have to be to work early. i'll check back in the morning
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1015. xcool
;0
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1014. Bielle
Quoting jurakantaino:
Wow, look what's popping out of Africa!


Link?
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1013. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, Georges did nip us in the SW corner, but since there's only water there, we were pretty much ok... :o)

I think we are all hopeful, but I don't think anybody along the Antilles or the Bahamas / Turks&Caicos would be SURPRISED to get hit....


Yep, we are sitting ducks here in the middle of the ocean :S
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hola JLPR.... I sure hope you don't have anything to report,too, because u know, after PR, they come and hit the Bahamas.... lol

But it is likely to be an interesting year one way or another....
Well, Georges did nip us in the SW corner, but since there's only water there, we were pretty much ok... :o)

I think we are all hopeful, but I don't think anybody along the Antilles or the Bahamas / Turks&Caicos would be SURPRISED to get hit....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Joe. As a "longtimer", I can say that in some ways the blog is a lot quieter and less wild than in previous years. Especially in 2006 and 2007, before protocols were fully established, there was a lot of nonsense going on. Because bloggers have become more adept at using the blog tools, whatever disputes there are tend to be shorter and less virulent. Also, the admin is more vigilent during the season, so trolls etc are dealt with a bit more expeditiously.

I'm not saying we can't do better - we can. But considering the limited amount of outside moderation here, I think we do pretty ok...

thanks for the info. i'm just glad that people like you are still apart of this blog daily. The info you give out is very much appreciated and is always helpful in some way. so thanks again lol!
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1010. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
If the map in 1007 is true, why is this map so blank???



There is nothing there XD
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If the map in 1007 is true, why is this map so blank???

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1008. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hola JLPR.... I sure hope you don't have anything to report,too, because u know, after PR, they come and hit the Bahamas.... lol

But it is likely to be an interesting year one way or another....


Yeah that happens LOL! Well at least Georges didn't visit you.
And yep too, I just hope it doesn't get too interesting, XD
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1007. xcool


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Quoting JLPR2:


Hey I'm in the E Caribbean too and yep I dont want to report anything this year either LOL! xD
Hola JLPR.... I sure hope you don't have anything to report,too, because u know, after PR, they come and hit the Bahamas.... lol

But it is likely to be an interesting year one way or another....
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1005. xcool



jasoniscoolman2010x .yep ...
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1003. Skyepony (Mod)
Monthly ENSO is out..

Synopsis: La Niña conditions are likely to develop during July - August 2010.

Region 3,4 went less than .5 this week. Now all we need is a 3 month average of that & La Nina conditions will be here.

There is a ENSO ALERT SYSTEM in place now..the Status: La Niña Watch

Atmo~ Thanks for checking.
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Quoting Marou:
bonsoir everybody
bonsoir... como ca va?

(My 3 words of French... lol) Are you ready for the storms to begin?
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Quoting jlp09550:
Wow, look what's popping out of Africa!
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1000. xcool
to farsouth ...
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Still new to posting on this, but I am just a little apprehensive about the remainder of TD-TWO as it progressives to the east by north east, while there is a "no-name" system other than a "Nor-easterner" sitting southeast off of the Carolina's.



thanks

Been watching the two system coming together tonight on GE with the US doppler on as an overlay and the whole mid & east coast seems to be just "exploding" with increasing heavy rains.



In the first picture you see this line of clouds leading down in to the Nor'easter out of Main/Vermont, what are those called? what I do know of them is it is a sign of some ruff weather ahead (navy 6 years)

here is what I am referring to

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998. JLPR2
Quoting jurakantaino:
That would be ideal,but i'm afraid this will be a pretty active season for the caribbean in the month that climatology we get affected by the CV and CA storms, August and September, specially if the Bermuda high remains in tha possition.


Shh! *starts running in circles* LOL!
I dont think we are prepared nor ready to receive a cane :\ but I guess that if its meant to be, it will happen. T_T
One can always hope for the best. :D
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Quoting RavensFan:
as an outside opinion. more this season than any other, there has been tons of bickering on this blog about all different things not including weather. I hardly ever post anything unless I have a question, but i'm getting kinda sick of all the fighting. On average, I see just as much arguing about non weather topics as I do about weather related discussions and that makes me sick. Its a weather blog, fight somewhere else so those of us just reading don't have to deal with all of it and can just read about the current tropical conditions.
-Joe
Hey, Joe. As a "longtimer", I can say that in some ways the blog is a lot quieter and less wild than in previous years. Especially in 2006 and 2007, before protocols were fully established, there was a lot of nonsense going on. Because bloggers have become more adept at using the blog tools, whatever disputes there are tend to be shorter and less virulent. Also, the admin is more vigilent during the season, so trolls etc are dealt with a bit more expeditiously.

I'm not saying we can't do better - we can. But considering the limited amount of outside moderation here, I think we do pretty ok...
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996. 7544
NHC Watch WAVE AT 35W...


yep becoming a nice round red ball at this hour fireing up
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
Quoting xcool:
NHC Watch WAVE AT 35W...


What's the exact coordinates? I'll go ahead and get some imagery of it if I can.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Hey I'm in the E Caribbean too and yep I dont want to report anything this year either LOL! xD
That would be ideal,but i'm afraid this will be a pretty active season for the caribbean in the month that climatology we get affected by the CV and CA storms, August and September, specially if the Bermuda high remains in tha possition.
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992. xcool
NHC Watch WAVE AT 35W...
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Quoting Skyepony:
Can ya'll see a graph here, surf around in that site & see other graphs? All I see is little boxes with broken images or none.
Nada.
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990. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, good to see another ECar Islander in the blog!

Hopefully you will have nothing to report this year.... lol

Baha


Hey I'm in the E Caribbean too and yep I dont want to report anything this year either LOL! xD
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989. 7544
yep jason that looks like the new 97l wjay u think
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988. JLPR2
Quoting jlp09550:


ah! Look at that, our wave didn't stay quiet after all XD
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Quoting GNDcanewatcher:
coming at me in Grenada! maybe!
Hey, good to see another ECar Islander in the blog!

Hopefully you will have nothing to report this year.... lol

Baha
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986. Skyepony (Mod)
Can ya'll see a graph here, surf around in that site & see other graphs? All I see is little boxes with broken images or none.
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985. xcool
jasoniscoolman2010x yeah .
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Quoting Chicklit:
I just iggie people who offend me and then put the control on "show average." Works for me.
Even "show bad" weeds out the worst of them. For e.g., I never know what the latest version of the troll has to say because he always comes up lower than bad.... so only when pple quote him do I know. If pple would just [-],[!] and ignore without replying, we'd have peace and quiet...
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Quoting USSINS:



More imporantly, you focused on the least important part of the post regarding SAL - such as the differences I suggested between CIMSS and EUMETSAT, the differences between dry air and dust, and whereas dust (not saying dry air) resides in the mid-levels, not the surface; and therefore, would be less of an inhibitor at the surface than dry air.

So, let's agree that this issue is settled.


That shouldn't matter.....I said from the beginning I had no dispute with the main point of your post and it doesn't matter whether it wasn't a main point or not, it can still be discussed.

I still think it depends on exactly how you define when cyclogenesis actually begins. There's a big difference between when the first thunderstorm cell is going up and when the disturbance is already organizing into a large cluster of thunderstorms and forming low pressure. I'll be sure to keep it in mind as a question for someone later in life.

Thanks for the paper....I'll have to read it as well later when I have the time.

Enjoy your night.
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980. 7544
yep
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
979. xcool
35w ;)
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978. 7544
hmm wave at 35 west looking better maybe 97l after dmax ?
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Interesting, building moderate convection around the low and a surface circulation. Its not much, but its interesting. Highly doubt anything will come of it.





Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24161
Quoting Levi32:


I jumped at that very small part of your post, not the whole comment.

Your statement may get differing answers depending on how we define when cyclogenesis is occurring. If we look in hindsight at a tropical cyclone that already developed, track it down to the very first thunderstorm cluster, and then declare cyclogenesis at that point, then you may be correct in saying that.

However, the whole process of an established tropical disturbance organizing into a tropical cyclone happens at BOTH the low and mid levels of the atmosphere at the same time. That is unavoidable when you have deep convection warming the air column and causing pressure falls up through at least 700mb during development. They always have structure up into the mid-levels.

This is ESPECIALLY true when talking about tropical waves in the central-eastern Atlantic which are best-defined at 650mb, the mid-levels, and therefore cyclogenesis often starts up there first.



Levi, you're making this way more complicated than it should be. Cyclogenesis does occur largely and most often from the surface. Every one with any history of following the tropics will verify that. My statement was simply true. Yes, the system has to evolve to mature, not unlike people, young or old. But, it's often difficult to be in two places at the same time, right. So, there is an evolving, and normal, average cyclogenesis usually occurs from the surface. So, let's stop disputing that. I do completely agree with you that cyclo can begin at the mid, even the uppers, but they have to find the surface and are not as frequent as surface cyclogenesis. You know this.

Again, there's no burden for me to prove anything. My statement is true, yet you said I was wrong. But, I do understand your desire and reasoning to promote the context in which you state. More imporantly, you focused on the least important part of the post regarding SAL. There were other points such as the differences I suggested between CIMSS and EUMETSAT, the differences between dry air and dust, and whereas dust (not saying dry air) resides in the mid-levels, not the surface; and therefore, would be less of an inhibitor at the surface than dry air.

So, let's agree that this issue is settled.

Here is one abstract on the studies that in certain concentrations/patterns that dust serves as (CCN) cloud condensation nuclei and can act to actually enhance TC development activity. Impacts of Saharan dust as CCN on the evolution of an idealized tropical cyclone There are others, but it's been a couple of years since the topic was kicked around that I remember. I'm not sure it's a proven theory, and I think we all agree that in heavy concentrations dust is certainly prohibitive to mature development.

Maybe this is enough to pique your interests, get a good scoop and come back and share it with us.

If you have something else, shoot me a WUmail, I'm weary of yacking about it on the board. Enjoyed the mostly civil and respectful discussion. Thanks.

Have a good sleep. I'm out.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.