Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Good morning Storm.It looks like we are gonna have another high pressure over us for a few more days.I hope that it will stay for a while.
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Is the low off NC inland? Columbia, NC reporting 29.89 and that looks like where the circulation is centered on radar.
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I'm finding that the ATL from about 55 - 90W and about 10 - 30N remains remarkably moist.
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1073. IKE
Quoting HouGalv08:
Re post 1064, IKE. Hard NOT to notice the pattern that seems to have set up so far. The problem we'll have is that with such southern tracks, all it will take is a relaxation one time of the A/B high, and someone from Fla. over to the Tx coast IS going to get smacked with something BIG.


Probably so.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good a.m.


Central Atlantic - Rainbow Loop
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Re post 1064, IKE. Hard NOT to notice the pattern that seems to have set up so far. The problem we'll have is that with such southern tracks, all it will take is a relaxation one time of the A/B high, and someone from Fla. over to the Tx coast IS going to get smacked with something BIG.
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1070. DDR
Morning
Stormfury,13n59,watch out for those squalls later today,its been a very wet week here as well.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1711
ULL at 75N35W SE of Hatteras has most of a surface circ according to ASCAT and it's sitting over the stream. Models don't do anything with it, but they also move that trough draped across the Ohio a lot slower than the sats show it progressing. Some 30+ knot winds in in's NE quad...but dry air to its SW. Interesting feature.
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1068. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Which is why I haven't liked the persistent weakness we've had along the eastern seaboard this last week. If such a set-up persists as the ITCZ drifts north, inevitably we'd get systems stronger than Twaves curving into it....


I noticed 2007 had a few east-coasters too.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
What I do see on the latest ECMWF run is more waves affecting Central America...Honduras...Guatemala....Yucatan peninsula...and probably northern Mexico.

Notice a pattern so far?
Which is why I haven't liked the persistent weakness we've had along the eastern seaboard this last week. If such a set-up persists as the ITCZ drifts north, inevitably we'd get systems stronger than Twaves curving into it....
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1066. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO TEXAS. THESE ADVISORIES CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
1064. IKE
What I do see on the latest ECMWF run is more waves affecting Central America...Honduras...Guatemala....Yucatan peninsula...and probably northern Mexico.

Notice a pattern so far?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:
Good news for drilling the relief wells...

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE E ALONG 28N TODAY AND
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE W
CARIBBEAN SUN. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SAT...MOVE THROUGH THE E AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN
MON.

Noticed that as well. It's a welcome relief; excuse the pun. Let's hope the weather holds so the drilling crew can do their work. Would love to hear, we could just concentrate on cleaning the mess, instead of also worrying about how much more. Of course down the road, a thorough investigation is needed so this is hopefully never repeated.

Anyone else notice the Miami and Key West NWS radar has been erratic the last couple days. Is this scheduled maintenance?

Link
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1062. IKE
Parallel GFS 6Z through July 25th...


00Z ECMWF through July 19th...nothing affecting the USA....


I don't see a Bonnie in either model run for the next 10 days.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good morning all,,,,its been a long,,wet week...
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Happy Friday to all.
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1059. IKE
Good news for drilling the relief wells...

SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT FRI JUL 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM THE E ALONG 28N TODAY AND
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT...AND WILL REACH THE W
CARIBBEAN SUN. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC
WATERS WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SAT...MOVE THROUGH THE E AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN
MON.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning.



This is blowing up w/ Dmax.


Saw this to.To watch,could be big one
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morning
blow up of convection with tropical wave east of the winward islands. there is a little cyclonic turning with this feature. a very wet and blustery day for the islands
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Good morning.



This is blowing up w/ Dmax.
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1054. 13N59W
Lovely overcast and wet morning. Judging by the pictures I have seen, that is how the rest of the day will be!!
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Quoting xcool:
2010 JUST like '07.HMMM


Starting to look that way. Before the season my analog years were 2007 and 2008. But more likely 2007. I looked at the ENSO, everything I learned about what makes A/B High behave this way or that. The ridge/trough patterns, etc. The NAO had been negative for so long this past winter and spring. I felt this may continue into the season. Debated all this with people on here and another site. The really funny thing is I did this BEFORE Joe Bastardi came out with his video about how he said all this, active season, possible 2008 type tracks, the whole nine. And you watch everyone will jump on his bandwagon. Lol. Wow! Do you think if I sent him a video showing my time stamped posts where I said this or that first it wold break his heart? I like Bastardi. Good as anyone else I guess. But he did not make this earth shattering discovery about this active season that no one knew about. StormW put out a blog about it before Bastardi did. Just funny to me. Of course we could all be wrong. Lol. I certainly hope I am. And also I'm getting a little tired of the ECMWF showing disturbance after disturbance following more or less Alex's path. I hope that really changes before the CV season gets going.
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1051. JLPR2
Well goodnight/morning to everyone!
:D
Later ^^
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very interesting
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1049. xcool
need go wnw
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Quoting JLPR2:


yep, huge ULL, seems to be developing convection, probably trying to reach the surface, instead of having dry air with it it seems to be surrounding the system now




Yeah, that graphics shows it all.
Very, Very Interesting indeed!
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check out the Sat Loop ....

Central Atlantic SAT
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1046. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalNonsense:
Interesting Feauture at 27n 56w ....

Clear signs of STRONG Rotation on the SAT imagery.

500 mb shows well defined Vortex.


I hope someone is watching! ....



yep, huge ULL, seems to be developing convection, probably trying to reach the surface, instead of having dry air with it it seems to be surrounding the system now

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Interesting Feauture at 27n 56w ....

Clear signs of STRONG Rotation on the SAT imagery.

500 mb shows well defined Vortex.


I hope someone is watching! ....

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1044. xcool
.ecmwf shows cv storms.
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1043. JLPR2
Even if its a little low in latitude, that area at 35w looks interesting and much better than the wave exiting Africa, but eh... its not that awesome, right now this:

and this:


are our only two AOI's and it seems the second one is the one with the most chance of development
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1042. xcool
;
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Levi, if you're still here, did you notice how the A/B high weakened to <1024mb towards the latter half of the run? At the end, it even had it as weak as 1020mb. That is incredibly low.
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It's pretty quiet. Oh well, bed time since there's nothing worth staying up for.



Goodnight.
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hey guys am in the island grenada just got a wonderful show with thunder and some dangerous fork lighting maan it has been raining none stop that wave that is comming through is pretty strong
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1038. xcool
YEP
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anyone herre?????????????/
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1036. Grothar
Quoting USSINS:



Grothar, that is an excellent image from EUMETSAT that more accurately depicts dust than does CIMSS's product which seems to portend an untrue, heavier concentration of dust because it also includes dry air. Indeed, the Saharan Air Layer is comprised of both, dust and dry air, but for distinguishing how dust applies to cyclogenesis, the CIMSS is the poorer reflection of the two.

Dust mostly resides in the mid-levels and is less of an inhibitor than dry air in cyclogenesis which occurs largely and mostly at the surface levels; and therefore, often over-estimated as an inhibitor. Certainly, cyclogenesis can occur at the mid (where dust largely resides) and even upper levels, but with considerably less frequency than it occurs from the surface. Dust can certainly be a prohibiter to development in heavy concentrations as a system matures from the surface upwards into the mid and upper levels. And, obviously too, it can prohibit development with any cyclo trying to generate at the mids. Interestingly, in less concentrations there is theory that dust, I suppose in minimalist amounts, can actually serve to enhance development through cloud condensation nuclei (CCN).

My experience is that dry air is considerably more frequently detrimental to development than is dust, especially as dry air is often more frequent at every level. A better way to discern the two, imo, is to use EUMETSAT for dust, and then, a water vapor loop for dry air.

Great post. Thanks. Glad to see more using EUMETSAT's dust product rather than CIMSS. Don't get me wrong, I use CIMSS often, but not as an accurate gauge for dust.


In my job, I have to use both. Thank you for the analysis, though. Wanted to see who knew the different applications for certain images. Some of these images can be quite misleading and result in incongruous conclusions.
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1035. xcool
ridge gulfcoast
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1033. xcool
2010 JUST like '07.HMMM
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1032. Levi32
0z GFS continuing to show the possibility for Cape Verde mischief in about a week's time. The western Caribbean also has to be watched as that area will be fairly moist with several tropical waves passing through during the next 10 days.

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1029. USSINS
Quoting Grothar:
Here is an image of the dust and the waves. Miamihurricanes009 always steals my best images. See if anyone can have an argument over this one. Blog is getting to placid.




Grothar, that is an excellent image from EUMETSAT that more accurately depicts dust than does CIMSS's product which seems to portend an untrue, heavier concentration of dust because it also includes dry air. Indeed, the Saharan Air Layer is comprised of both, dust and dry air, but for distinguishing how dust applies to cyclogenesis, the CIMSS is the poorer reflection of the two.

Dust mostly resides in the mid-levels and is less of an inhibitor than dry air in cyclogenesis since cyclogenesis occurs largely and mostly at the surface levels; and therefore, often over-estimated as an inhibitor. Certainly, cyclogenesis can also occur at the mid (where dust largely resides) and even upper levels, but with considerably less frequency than it occurs from the surface. Dust can certainly be a prohibiter to development in heavy concentrations as a system matures from the surface upwards into the mid and upper levels. And, obviously too, it can prohibit development with any cyclo trying to generate at the mids. Interestingly, in less concentrations there is theory that dust, I suppose in minimalist amounts, can actually serve to enhance development through cloud condensation nuclei (CCN).

My experience is that dry air is considerably more frequently detrimental to development than is dust, especially as dry air is often more frequent at every level. A better way to discern the two, imo, is to use EUMETSAT for dust, and then, a water vapor loop for dry air.

Great post. Thanks. Glad to see more using EUMETSAT's dust product rather than CIMSS. Don't get me wrong, I use CIMSS often, but not as an accurate gauge for dust.
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1028. xcool
more wave come off help to move SAL.
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About Africa: Look KABOOM, off the west coast



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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.