Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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1176. NRAamy
I see Destin is rockin' a new avatar today.....

:)
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Storm,
You mentioned cyclonic turning over and near the Yucatan peninsula. Just trying to understand and visualize this on a map. Thanks for the help.
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1173. Dakster
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Houston

HOBBY AIRPORT HAD MORE RAIN YESTERDAY. THIS BRINGS THE MONTHLY
TOTAL TO 11.08 INCHES WHICH IS NOW THE 4TH WETTEST JULY ON RECORD.
BUSH IAH HAS HAD 9.23 INCHES OF RAIN IN JULY WHICH IS THE 8TH
WETTEST ON RECORD. MISC TRIVIA TO WOW YOUR FRIENDS WITH...SINCE
JUNE 24TH HOBBY AIRPORT HAS HAD 13.32 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH IS
MORE THAN HALF OF THE YEARLY TOTAL OF 26.63 INCHES. THATS
RIGHT...50 PERCENT OF THE 2010 RAINFALL AT HOBBY AIRPORT HAS
OCCURRED IN THE LAST 15 DAYS.


It's gonna be a long season.


Houston - The new tropical paradise.... Complete with a monsoon season.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Wow ... certainly would not have expected this lull based on the forecasts leading into the season -- even with the "its only July" argument, this seems unexpected.

your new avatar is funny funny funny.
Tropical Atlantic - Water Vapor Loop
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Good morning everyone!
Storm could you tell me how to recognize ? cyclonic turning and what kind of map would be the best to see it. I was reading your blog and thinking it was on the wind shear map but not really sure I understand what I am looking at. The yellow lines are wind shear I think. What are the pink lines? direction? So to see the cyclonic turning you need to see both sets of lines in tandem circular motion? Or am I completly crazy? Still trying to figure this out three years later. lol thanks
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met service of jamaica website

July 9, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough over the central Caribbean.

Comment... Trough to move out of the area as a High Pressure Ridge rebuilds across the northern Caribbean.

24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Isolated showers across sections of western parishes, mainly fair elsewhere.

This Afternoon… Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across hilly inland areas.

Tonight… Mainly fair.

Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston… 33 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay… 32 degrees Celsius.

3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sat/Sun…Generally fair mornings with isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Mon…Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over most parishes.

Regionally… Another Tropical Wave is expected near the island on Sunday.

grb
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Thanks for the update Senior Chief. Semper Peratus!!!

Wind shear is doing a number on these waves.

D
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, we had a Category 2 Hurricane last week. There's your sign of an active season.


Experts are fairly certain of an active season and Alex, and certainly in terms of intensity, was quite an anomaly for this time of the year....Probably not surprising given the higher heat content at the outset of this season and Alex did not make a dent in terms of any significant cooling effects. The "clusters" of storms will probably not begin until August (whether in early August or around the normal mid-August period is anyone's guess) but we could potentially see a few hurricanes, as opposed to tropical storms, in the late July to early August period.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


OK Cybr; let's split the difference...Late July TD overting to TS on August 2nd.... :)


Well, we had a Category 2 Hurricane last week. There's your sign of an active season.
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1165. CaneBob
Tropical wave at 12.5N 57W has the potential to develop as it moves west into the Caribbean Sea over the next 24-48 hours. Other tropical waves are south in the Caribbean and seem destined to remain tropical waves.
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Quoting txalwaysprepared:


Yep. I'm about 20 minutes south of there. We've actually received about 15 inches in the last 15 days. It's crazy.
You must be somewhere in my vicinity; I'm in Seabrook. Hope no-one wants to go to the fish markets this morning -- that end of Todville is under water!

It's nice to see the sun today. :)
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1163. aquak9
re- post 1153

his name here is C2News. Lives very near me. Haven't seen him in a while, really sweet kid. I think his family might've moved away from the area, though. (that being the Jacksonville Beach area)
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1162. msphar
I guess we are all waiting for the show to begin and some of us are hoping it won't
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Blog Update
Link
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Quote 1153.

I don't know who he is but he's doing a really good job!
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
The waves form so easily into depressions this year.


Huh? We've had a whole two thus far, and #2 formed just before hitting land and dissipating...
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The Blog is v e r y s l o o o w...
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Affect of the MJO depends on the particular model you believe may be correct, from the operational GFS which shows a strong signal:




To the Australian Bureau of Meteorology - POAMA Coupled System which shows moving in the other direction:





To the Canadian Meteorology Centre - Ensemble System, which any quadrant other than the western pacific would be correct:


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It looks like a lot is already developing in the Caribbean and Atlantic. The waves form so easily into depressions this year. What a difference in the last twelve hours!
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1154. msphar
Two months to the midpoint of the season.
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The left is the observed and the right is the forecast MJO.......JUST SAYIN what this shows!






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Quoting nocaneindy:


I believe the only way to get a new handle is creating a new account with a new e-mail address.


THX....while I am certainly 2nd generation I'm not really so much a hunter as an interested Gulf coast resident. My father was, along with Bob Simpson, the first co-director of the NHC in the mid 50's and later in the mid 70's ran the research side. Dad retired from FSU in 2002 with 50 years of service to the Met community. See N.E. LaSeur PHD 1922-2008.
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Figured out how to add a pic
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


June-July has very little to do with season numbers. Everyone thinks every season needs to be compared with 2005, especially this one. 2007 had 15 named storms, same with 2004, 2007 had 9 tropical cyclones in September (including Felix which crossed over) and a TD. Everything though is indicating that we're likely to have a active late July similar to 2008. I think we'll see 2 named storms then, maybe even more.


OK Cybr; let's split the difference...Late July TD overting to TS on August 2nd.... :)
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1147. 7544
morning everyone looks like we have 3 blobs to watch today who will make it 97l looks like the island wave wants to win as it looks like it going to move w then wnw what u think
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Quoting 2ndGenHunter:
Greetings to all.... long time lurker, first time poster, I am wanting to change my "Handle" and am unable to figure out how to manage this. TIA for the assist.
LNL


I believe the only way to get a new handle is creating a new account with a new e-mail address.
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Quoting CaribbeanIslandStorm:

I agree, it will late, it's been pretty quite, and we are approaching mid july


June-July has very little to do with season numbers. Everyone thinks every season needs to be compared with 2005, especially this one. 2007 had 15 named storms, same with 2004, 2007 had 9 tropical cyclones in September (including Felix which crossed over) and a TD. Everything though is indicating that we're likely to have a active late July similar to 2008. I think we'll see 2 named storms then, maybe even more.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:



MJO hasn't really left for over a month. All the heat is in the Atlantic, and that is where the MJO wants to stay and will probably do so.
Quoting StormW:


Correct.


Not saying we have not had MJO here already but, look at this graphic......it shows the bulk (I did say Full Aboard) arriving in about 7 days does it not...is this graphic Wrong...i don't know Which is correct?



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Tropical Update w/ Video
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1142. angiest
Quoting hydrus:
Unfortunately, I believe Texas is in for more tropical activity and more rain. Maybe no tropical systems in the short term, but there will be more for The Lone Star State.


That's what I've been thinking since April or May. :/
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


If this does turn out to be a highly active season as predicted, I would think that the back-end of the Season (late September to October) is where the higher numbers might come to pass, if, the sheer levels remail low enough during that period after the normal September 15th peak......We also might get a few storms in early August to add to the numbers.

I agree, it will late, it's been pretty quite, and we are approaching mid july
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Land Fall in Nags Heads, NC ? ....

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=AKQ&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&m ap.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=244¢ery=74&prevzoom=zoom&num=20&delay=15&scale=0.580&showlabels=1&smo oth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=0
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there is low level circulation with the low developing right now over the outer banks of north carolina
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Greetings to all.... long time lurker, first time poster, I am wanting to change my "Handle" and am unable to figure out how to manage this. TIA for the assist.
LNL
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1137. RJT185
Quoting FLdewey:
Yeah, well Kansas is a mess.

There's a big crease right through Wichita.

ROLL the maps.



Love that movie!
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Wow ... certainly would not have expected this lull based on the forecasts leading into the season -- even with the "its only July" argument, this seems unexpected.


If this does turn out to be a highly active season as predicted, I would think that the back-end of the Season (late September to October) is where the higher numbers might come to pass, if, the sheer levels remain low enough during that period after the normal September 10th peak......We also might get a few storms in early August to add to the numbers.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


They said they needed a week to get the tops changed and to connect to the other vessel.. looks like they have it :)
But they will have to take the cap off for ten days and there will be nothing to stop the oil for ten days!!! We need the relief wells to plug the well.
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1134. hydrus
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


Yep. I'm about 20 minutes south of there. We've actually received about 15 inches in the last 15 days. It's crazy.
Unfortunately, I believe Texas is in for more tropical activity and more rain. Maybe no tropical systems in the short term, but there will be more for The Lone Star State.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
I believe a CV storm could threaten the SE US later this month. The waves that are coming off Africa are very strong and now it's just a matter of time. Quiet time is just about over in the tropics.

i agree the GFS was predicting a strong tropical disturbance about 1000 miles from the lesser antilles on july 22th, i think it might have changed, but that's a sign of the things to come.
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Quoting gulfbreeze:
I just hope it stays quiet in the Gulf untill they get the oil stop!


They said they needed a week to get the tops changed and to connect to the other vessel.. looks like they have it :)
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1130. Dakster
Quoting HurricaneAlex:
My first post on this wunderful (he, he...) blog.

Take this in considiration.

This season has already cost 15 times more ($77 million to $1210 million), and killed about eight times more (6 to 52) than the whole previous season.

Maybe we should not just stare blind at the number of namned storms...



Good point.

Although I don't think you would get much disagreement of the "it only takes one to ruin your day" mentality. Just look at 1992 - First storm was Andrew and at the END of AUGUST...
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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I just hope it stays quiet in the Gulf untill they get the oil stop!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.