Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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1276. angiest
Quoting Houstonia:


The plants love it! Everything is a beautiful green color! This is so nice, especially after the Dead Houston from winter when everything died from the cold snap.


Lots and lots of palm trees on the west side were seriously injured in that cold snap. Some of the ones I've seen I'm not sure will ever recover.

Glad my azalea had already died or it would have in the winter for sure. :P
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1275. guygee
Quoting myway:


conus is a wonderful place where they have a potus and a flotus
Don't forget the scotus, and Alaska had a gleotus.
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Quoting BDAwx:


i agree with your point. but 2008 definitely did not have 3 June storms.


You are correct; my bad. There were no June storms that year, which I suppose invalidates that particular point, though the basic conjecture of my post still stands. (That's what I get for pre-caffeine analysis.)
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1273. Patrap
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1271. Patrap
NASA and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company held a ceremony on Thursday, July 8, at NASA's Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans. The event pays tribute to the external tank rollout for the last space shuttle flight and commemorates tank deliveries for 134 shuttle launches.

The last external tank, designated ET-138, will travel on a wheeled transporter one mile to the Michoud barge dock. It will be accompanied by the Storyville Stompers, a traditional area brass band, and hundreds of handkerchief-waving employees. The tank will travel on a 900-mile sea journey to NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, where it will support shuttle Endeavour's STS-134 launch.


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Just in from working on the yard again and I see the infamous shower curtain has materialized and yes I have been monitoring the blog long enough to now that curtain well! The blog must be slow.
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Quoting BDAwx:


i agree with your point. but 2008 definitely did not have 3 June storms.


2008 didn't even have one.
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1268. 7544
wave at 80 w looks to be gaining a lot more conv this one might try be 97l first

new gfs get moving on the new run system over fla at the end 2 in the cent atlantic
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Quoting DestinJeff:
David Jones, a senior climatologist at the weather bureau's National Climate Centre, says the weather is uncharacteristic.

also a former Monkee.

can you explain that to me... in the morning,
Goodnight, stay safe.
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1266. myway
Quoting NRAamy:
where's Conus?


conus is a wonderful place where they have a potus and a flotus
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Quoting hydrus:
Good Night. Hope you feel better soon :)
Quoting Floodman:


G'night, mate...keep your chin up!

Thanks, flu medicine and beer don't mix to well, add in back pain and you sorta get to know how i am feeling. Sucks to be me.

2010 on track to be hottest year

Last year was the second warmest on record, and this year could be the planet's hottest, according to a forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology, which says uncharacteristically warm conditions are being felt across the northern hemisphere.

The northern hemisphere is experiencing record high temperatures.

China has now issued a fresh heatwave alert after a week of soaring temperatures.

Parts of Northern Africa, the United States and the Middle East are also experiencing scorching heat, with some regions recording above 50 degrees celsius.

David Jones, a senior climatologist at the weather bureau's National Climate Centre, says the weather is uncharacteristic.

"Certainly the first six months of this year have been the hottest on record and it now looks like 2010 will be the hottest year on record," he said.

"We actually got into the low 50s for parts of the Middle East and Pakistan a couple of weeks back, so some extreme numbers, but more generally numbers approaching 40, 41. Beijing the other day just fell short of 41. We're seeing 40s right up and down the US eastern seaboard.

"Many of these are, if they're not record-breaking, they're getting very, very close to records."

He says such long runs of very high temperatures are uncharacteristic, but it is not entirely suprising, as the planet has experienced the hottest start to a year on record.

Dr Jones says every year is different from the year before, but Australia is getting hotter.

"We have seen an increase in heatwaves in Australia in the last 30 to 50 years," he said

"The odds are, as we go forwards, we certainly will get more of them."

He says while some parts of Australia are experiencing cool conditions, northern Australia is having a warmer winter, and parts of the country are experiencing more unseasonal rainfalls.

"We've seen some record rainfall through parts of the Northern Territory, Queensland and WA," he said.

"What has actually slipped under the radar is the tropics have actually been really warm.

"So while it's been cold in the central parts, we've been seeing record high night time temperatures across the tropics.

"It's a pretty complex story out there; lots of extremes in the weather."
© ABC 2010
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1262. BDAwx
Quoting Neapolitan:
Seasonal comparisons based on month-to-month storm numbers--which I've seen a number of here lately--can often be misleading. Look at the following chart, which shows named storms during the 15 years since 1995 (considered the start of the current busy NATL hurricane period):

.

Here are a few random observations:

1) 2005--the busiest North Atlantic season on record--had no named storms in either April or May, though that happened in three others years (2003, 2007, and 2008).

2) 2005 had an above-average two storms in June, but that's still one fewer than 2008's three.

3) 2005 saw fewer August storms than either 1995 or 2004, and fewer December storms than 2003.

4) 2005 had only one more September storm than 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, or 2008, and fewer September storms than either 1998, 2002, or 2007.

5) 2005 had only two storms before the end of June, but ended with 27 storms, while 2008, which saw twice as many through June--four--ended up with 23% fewer storms than 2005.

6) August 1995 had nearly double the average number of storms for that month, with seven--but September had a way below-average three.

7) July 1997 saw an above-average three named storms--but then none in August, just one in September, and two in October.

What can be learned from all that?

A) Above-average early-season activity is not a reliable indicator of above-average mid- or late-season activity...and vice-versa.

B) An above- or below-average month is not a reliable indicator that subsequent months will necessarily follow suit.

C) Of the 218 named storms from 1995 through 2009, just 16, or about 7.5%--have occured during April, May, or June. Statiscally-speaking, then, 92.5% of this season's storms are yet to be born.

IOW, relax, guys; more storms are coming. I promise...


i agree with your point. but 2008 definitely did not have 3 June storms.
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Quoting hydrus:
I dont know, but if I lived on the coast in Nicaragua, I would keep tabs on the Caribbean wave.


I live in Belize and am keeping an eye on it. Has been raining here since last night - now flooding. Was hoping we had our dose for a while with Alex. Any furter insight on this wave will be appreciated. Tks!
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1260. NRAamy
where's Conus?
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I think 2 areas bear watching , N of Panama and E of Barbados, also maybe the CATL wave.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Hey all, this is my one and only post tonight, I am a little bit under the weather, had a few to many amber ale's after work. I hope to have a fund raising announcement in the next few month, which I really do hope everyone( if you can, no pressure) helps out on.
Cheers and Good Night.


G'night, mate...keep your chin up!
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1257. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hey all, this is my one and only post tonight, I am a little bit under the weather, had a few to many amber ale's after work. I hope to have a fund raising announcement in the next few month, which I really do hope everyone( if you can, no pressure) helps out on.
Cheers and Good Night.
Good Night. Hope you feel better soon :)
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Quoting wxbrad:
watch the Carolina coast very closely today for TD#3

maybe 97L but not TD3
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1255. hydrus
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Anything suppose to develop here?

I dont know, but if I lived on the coast in Nicaragua, I would keep tabs on the Caribbean wave.
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Hey all, this is my one and only post tonight, I am a little bit under the weather, had a few to many amber ale's after work. I hope to have a fund raising announcement in the next few month, which I really do hope everyone( if you can, no pressure) helps out on.
Cheers and Good Night.
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1253. angiest
Quoting txalwaysprepared:
15 inches of rain in two weeks... the mosquitos are HORRID today!!



Yep, seeing an uptick in the skeeter population as well...
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1252. BFG308
Quoting Neapolitan:

C) Of the 218 named storms from 1995 through 2009, just 16, or about 7.5%--have occured during April, May, or June. Statiscally-speaking, then, 92.5% of this season's storms are yet to be born.



So, 14 is a good statistical predicition of total storms?
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1203. DestinJeff 3:41 PM GMT on July 09, 2010

Thats just wrong... on so many levels....
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1250. wxbrad
watch the Carolina coast very closely today for TD#3
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You guys have a great day.
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Quoting txalwaysprepared:
15 inches of rain in two weeks... the mosquitos are HORRID today!!


Wow, that is bad.
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1247. 7544
is that island wave holding on trying to form is there a small spin there now

the carb waveat 80 w also looks good more posters will be here soon can we see 97l before the days end after alll ?
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Seasonal comparisons based on month-to-month storm numbers--which I've seen a number of here lately--can often be misleading. Look at the following chart, which shows named storms during the 15 years since 1995 (considered the start of the current busy NATL hurricane period):

.

Here are a few random observations:

1) 2005--the busiest North Atlantic season on record--had no named storms in either April or May, though that happened in three others years (2003, 2007, and 2008).

2) 2005 had an above-average two storms in June, but that's still one fewer than 2008's three.

3) 2005 saw fewer August storms than either 1995 or 2004, and fewer December storms than 2003.

4) 2005 had only one more September storm than 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, or 2008, and fewer September storms than either 1998, 2002, or 2007.

5) 2005 had only two storms before the end of June, but ended with 27 storms, while 2008, which saw twice as many through June--four--ended up with 23% fewer storms than 2005.

6) August 1995 had nearly double the average number of storms for that month, with seven--but September had a way below-average three.

7) July 1997 saw an above-average three named storms--but then none in August, just one in September, and two in October.

What can be learned from all that?

A) Above-average early-season activity is not a reliable indicator of above-average mid- or late-season activity...and vice-versa.

B) An above- or below-average month is not a reliable indicator that subsequent months will necessarily follow suit.

C) Of the 218 named storms from 1995 through 2009, just 16, or about 7.5%--have occured during April, May, or June. Statiscally-speaking, then, 92.5% of this season's storms are yet to be born.

IOW, relax, guys; more storms are coming. I promise...


very well done
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1244. help4u
Fldewey ,good you have a job.Hope you keep it.
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1243. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting HurricaneObserver:
wow, nearly 24 hours and less than 1300 posts? Where is everyone?
waiting
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Seasonal comparisons based on month-to-month storm numbers--which I've seen a number of here lately--can often be misleading. Look at the following chart, which shows named storms during the 15 years since 1995 (considered the start of the current busy NATL hurricane period):

.

Here are a few random observations:

1) 2005--the busiest North Atlantic season on record--had no named storms in either April or May, though that happened in three others years (2003, 2007, and 2008).

2) 2005 had an above-average two storms in June, but that's still one fewer than 2008's three.

3) 2005 saw fewer August storms than either 1995 or 2004, and fewer December storms than 2003.

4) 2005 had only one more September storm than 2001, 2003, 2004, 2006, or 2008, and fewer September storms than either 1998, 2002, or 2007.

5) 2005 had only two storms before the end of June, but ended with 27 storms, while 2008, which saw twice as many through June--four--ended up with 23% fewer storms than 2005.

6) August 1995 had nearly double the average number of storms for that month, with seven--but September had a way below-average three.

7) July 1997 saw an above-average three named storms--but then none in August, just one in September, and two in October.

What can be learned from all that?

A) Above-average early-season activity is not a reliable indicator of above-average mid- or late-season activity...and vice-versa.

B) An above- or below-average month is not a reliable indicator that subsequent months will necessarily follow suit.

C) Of the 218 named storms from 1995 through 2009, just 16, or about 7.5%--have occured during April, May, or June. Statiscally-speaking, then, 92.5% of this season's storms are yet to be born.

IOW, relax, guys; more storms are coming. I promise...
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15 inches of rain in two weeks... the mosquitos are HORRID today!!

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I am allergic to the sun and I have asthma. I went to the movies the other night to sit in air-conditioning, but it was broken. I moved out of VA to Cape Cod Mass to get out of this kind of weather, and now it's followed me up here. Our high was forecast to be 79 and it's already 83.9, and humidity high as a kite. I can't wait until Sept, and hope I survive August.
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1238. Patrap
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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI



Darrel Hammond as Sean Connery:"Craven"?


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I just mowed the yard now I am trying to recover from heat exhaustion, humidity is a killer!
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Some pple who are frequenting the blog today need to step away from the keyboard... u know, go outside and let the sun or rain fall on u for a couple minutes... marvel at the uniqueness of unconditioned air....

u know.... GET a LIFE!!! LOL

And for me there is a saying, "physician, heal thyself"! so I am stepping out for a couple hours, going to "catch some rays" [hurrah - the sun's shining today!] and generally finding a non-blog way of enjoying myself for a couple hours....

This may be the last break before the massive onslaught of the CV season... don't let it get away!
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So that system off North Carolina and a front moving in will break the heatwave in Northeast? How long will that last?
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Quoting FLdewey:
Is that a pinhole eye?

Well, of course. lol
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1231. Patrap
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1230. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

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1229. Levi32
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, July 9th, with Video
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26564
1227. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

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1226. cg2916
Quoting tkeith:
blog rehab...

Post Storm Requirement :)


Yup.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.