Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Quoting klaatuborada:


I heard he has quite a locker...


LOL...if you like the androgynous type, I guess
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1323. Levi32
July is also the month when the Azores High is strongest than at any other time of the year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
What a muggy, interesting weather day here on the Outer Banks...

Last night as the low pressure approached the coast, it got abnormally cool and very breezy... as the low has evolved today the winds have decreased here a bit [first question... is that any indication that the system is evolving, contracting the wind field?].....(i'm on the central outer banks, whereas Cape Hatteras is the 'southern' outer banks)

...the airmass is just 'tropical' here today...

It's really funny watching this spin directly over me on the radar and outside my window... I think it was Danny back in the 90's (unsure... not a statistics buff) that re-developed and intensified as it was OVER land in Eastern NC (kinda like they do down on the Yucatan sometimes)...

Anyway, what are ya'll thinking? Why is the NHC/TPC so uninterested in this system? I understand that it was a cold-core, but is it still? Does anyone expect development from this?

Love reading (and lurking on.... lol) the blog. I'm not a scientist, I'm just an enthusiast with a lot of scientific knowledge (ok, ok.. I didn't finish my met degree... I became a photographer instead... now I just take pictures and video of significant weather events... much more fun!...)

Nice meeting you all (most of ya... lol... some of you meanies on here, please don't be mean to me... we can't all know everything!)

<3
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1321. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


What scares the heck out of me is what the GFS is showing in regards to the A/B high. It continues to show the high at 1020mb in the last 1/4 of the run.


Indeed, by July 25th the GFS ensembles show the A/B High looking pretty benign and under 1024mb at the center.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Floodman:


And the alias of David Bowie...what a busy guy he must be!


I heard he has quite a locker...
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1319. JRRP
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Quoting Levi32:


Hey Storm, check out the ECMWF Weeklies for MSLP that JB shows on the Big Dog. The current higher pressures forecasted by the operational model for the next week or so look to reverse right back to below-normal, in line with its seasonal forecast.


What scares the heck out of me is what the GFS is showing in regards to the A/B high. It continues to show the high at 1020mb in the last 1/4 of the run.
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1316. tkeith
Quoting Surfcropper:


The constant heat has baked the brains of the Miami met office.

Here's a quote from Forecaster JB earlier this morning...

"Swirley, swirley? No swirley? Duhhhh..Waffles!!" --JB
It's the King James High...no longer stationary over Cleveland it has moved further south now hovering over Miami area...
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1313. Levi32
Quoting WestchesterCounty:
Just viewed your video! I loved it. You explain everything so well, wow.


Thank you. I'm glad you enjoyed it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1260 NRAamy "where's Conus?"

Under the sea, Conus is a genus of predatory snails.

Before Alaska&Hawaii became states, CONtinentalUnitedStates...

...and now CONtiguousUnitedStates or CONterminousUnitedStates
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB this afternnon.

FRIDAY NOON
AS TPC SLEEPS, AN EYE FORMS ON MOOREHEAD CITY RADAR

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&l oop=yes


Then get a load of this.. they are issuing a marine warning and describe the spiral band on the south side of this!

* AT 1215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER FROM 9 NM NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO 5 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE PAMLICO SOUND...OR FROM 9 NM NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO 10 NM SOUTH OF ENGELHARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS.


Take a look at the Doppler wind readout and what else to you want to see?

Meanwhile not a peep from TPC....

This is not a cold core system now; it has separated away. It will loop back out to sea then turn north-northeast, and folks in southeastern New England and the maritimes have to watch this.

But it's unbelievable watching the lame explanations for this coming out. Unreal!

Don't get me wrong; this is not a monster, but imagine if you were receiving the kind of lame idea forecasts for this then got hit with a spiraling storm with gales and a calm center out there. Amazing!

Wake up Miami! Ciao for now.


I've been watching that little curiosity on the radar since last night! Seems like everyone pays so much attention to the GOM, meanwhile North Carolina gets ignored like tropical cyclones are a remote threat here! Thanks for drawing attention to our little storm.
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1310. tkeith
Quoting Levi32:
24-hour post counts on WU have already dropped 60% since TD 2 went inland lol.
Post Landfall Syndrome...

dont worry Levi it's curable :)
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JB this afternnon.

FRIDAY NOON
AS TPC SLEEPS, AN EYE FORMS ON MOOREHEAD CITY RADAR

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MHX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&l oop=yes


Then get a load of this.. they are issuing a marine warning and describe the spiral band on the south side of this!

* AT 1215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER FROM 9 NM NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO 5 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE PAMLICO SOUND...OR FROM 9 NM NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO 10 NM SOUTH OF ENGELHARD...MOVING EAST AT 10 KNOTS.


Take a look at the Doppler wind readout and what else to you want to see?

Meanwhile not a peep from TPC....

This is not a cold core system now; it has separated away. It will loop back out to sea then turn north-northeast, and folks in southeastern New England and the maritimes have to watch this.

But it's unbelievable watching the lame explanations for this coming out. Unreal!

Don't get me wrong; this is not a monster, but imagine if you were receiving the kind of lame idea forecasts for this then got hit with a spiraling storm with gales and a calm center out there. Amazing!

Wake up Miami! Ciao for now.
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1307. Levi32
Quoting WestchesterCounty:
Afternoon, Levi!


Hey there :)
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting latrendsetter:
I know this has nothing to do with the weather except the heat. What r your thoughts of lebron at the heat?
Well, no state income tax in the Sunshine State!
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1304. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:
24-hour post counts on WU have already dropped 60% since TD 2 went inland lol.

jajajaaajaja
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1303. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


LOL!


Hey Storm, check out the ECMWF Weeklies for MSLP that JB shows on the Big Dog. The current higher pressures forecasted by the operational model for the next week or so look to reverse right back to below-normal, in line with its seasonal forecast.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting DestinJeff:
David Jones, a senior climatologist at the weather bureau's National Climate Centre, says the weather is uncharacteristic.

also a former Monkee.



LOL!
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Quoting Levi32:
24-hour post counts on WU have already dropped 60% since TD 2 went inland lol.


I'm still here....mainly lurking at the moment. :)
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1298. Levi32
24-hour post counts on WU have already dropped 60% since TD 2 went inland lol.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1297. JRRP
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Quoting ElConando:


LOL why are you asking us?


Nothing better to do tropics wise at the moment.......... :) Lebron better make sure that his pending Mansion on Star Island is insured for the upcoming "Hurricane" Season.....
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Quoting BFG308:


So, 14 is a good statistical predicition of total storms?


No, and that was the point of my post: the only thing that our single named storm indicates is that conditions have so far been just perfect for a single named storm. Guesstimating future numbers off what we've had so far is neither wise nor accurate. We could have six more storms before July is over, but that wouldn't guarantee an above-average August or September. Likewise, we could have no storms at all in June, but that wouldn't guarantee August and September wouldn't be disastrously busy.

Timewise, 77% of the calendar season is yet to come, as is 92.5% of the statistical season. I'm just saying that those calling the pre-season forecasts of a hyperactive year a failure need to think a bit more. A ten-game winning streak in April doesn't guarantee a team a spot in the World Series, and vice versa...
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Quoting latrendsetter:
I know this has nothing to do with the weather except the heat. What r your thoughts of lebron at the heat?


LOL why are you asking us?
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WINDSAT picks up higher winds.
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Quoting Levi32:
The tropical wave in the SW Caribbean looks scary on satellite but ASCAT shows nothing much going on under there except an area of converging winds associated with the monsoon trough.



Lets just enjoy the calm before the storm. Whenever it starts.
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I know this has nothing to do with the weather except the heat. What r your thoughts of lebron at the heat?
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Quoting belizewunderfan:


I live in Belize and am keeping an eye on it. Has been raining here since last night - now flooding. Was hoping we had our dose for a while with Alex. Any furter insight on this wave will be appreciated. Tks!
It would be best for us here in Belize if the wave developed then the cold front in the usa would pull it to the n if it does not develope the wave will continue west and we will probably get a lot more rain .
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Ah, Levi32 already came up with the answer. And thats a fairly recent ASCAT too.
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Quoting FLdewey:
You guys might not know this, but I consider myself a bit of a loner. I tend to think of myself as a one-man wolf pack.
You're not going to "ruffie" us are you? LOL! Where's Doug?
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1282. cg2916
I just found this out: The Ares I-X test mission (it tested the rocket that we're supposed to go back to the moon with) was delayed a day due to wind shear!
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Re. posts 1255 and 1261. yep, that wave at 12.5 & 78 is starting to spin. Would have to see vorticity and upper support maps to see if there is really anything brewing.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
David Jones, a senior climatologist at the weather bureau's National Climate Centre, says the weather is uncharacteristic.

also a former Monkee.


And the alias of David Bowie...what a busy guy he must be!
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1279. Levi32
The tropical wave in the SW Caribbean looks scary on satellite but ASCAT shows nothing much going on under there except an area of converging winds associated with the monsoon trough.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
1278. angiest
Quoting guygee:
Don't forget the scotus, and Alaska had a gleotus.


I am unsure I want to know what a gleotus is...
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1276. angiest
Quoting Houstonia:


The plants love it! Everything is a beautiful green color! This is so nice, especially after the Dead Houston from winter when everything died from the cold snap.


Lots and lots of palm trees on the west side were seriously injured in that cold snap. Some of the ones I've seen I'm not sure will ever recover.

Glad my azalea had already died or it would have in the winter for sure. :P
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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