Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Evening everyone! I'm assuming that we are keeping tabs on the area east of the Antilles.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Thanks 2ndGenHunter. I've been at that link before. Patrap: I've seen more storms develop after calm than at any other time. I think an early storm may come into the gulf very soon!
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1620. CJC111
"Whatachump" My spell checker didn't like that one so I had to add it to my dictionary :) Amazing how quiet the blog is without an official AOI. 10 days to 2 weeks until the tropics get hyper active. Is that the general thinking?
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Quoting Patrap:
I have a Viral bug in my HP.
That's not good Pat
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1618. docrod
Hi - Key West radar is still down ... day two, anyone have any info regarding why and when it will be back online. - thanks
ps - Warmest June - Key West and Marathon
Link
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1617. Patrap
The MJO and LRC - is there a link?


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Written by Scott Metsker
Monday, 23 November 2009 20:43

Greetings Bloggers! It has been awhile. I haven't had time to write due to so much work both business and research. I wanted to put this blog out to go over some of the research I have been working on and my thoughts on this year's LRC.

Let me start this blog with a big thank you for all that visit. Over the last year, our reach and viewership has broaden immensely! We have daily readers in nearly every state and quite a few countries abroad. Even now, we still are finding about a 30% rate of new readers day after day!

Ok, so lets get to it, shall we?

Our team has been doing a great deal of analysis and work on this year's LRC. Along with that, I have been working on research to better understand how the LRC fits in the greater scheme of things already researched or in conjunction with current projects. It seems likely that there is research already done that will help provide further clarity on the mechanics of the LRC and how it may work or be measured. While I first was intrigued by much of the human pattern recognition of map to map analysis, I wanted to dig deeper to see if there were other empirical ways to represent the LRC.
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1616. Patrap
I have a Viral bug in my HP.
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1614. Dirtleg
Link entertainment numero uno :)

Link entertainment numero dos


Just doing my duty... :)
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1613. Patrap
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Patrap: The "calm" before the storm?


.."Oh I hope not, senor'..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1612. SQUAWK
Quoting stillwaiting:




gmail accounts are a dime a dozen,probably what he's up too,he's everywhere even was on the Barometer bob show and got me banned from posting questions,because I pointed out that he was a "troll from WU"...:p


Unreal
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1611. xcool
stillwaiting JFV got ban from bob shows wow.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting belizeit:
I think ther is a possibility this system could get pulled to the n before reaching the cost by the trough currently over the USA . Could some one post steering models for this area please?

Might, I know the convection over Belize earlier is being pulled north if it was 1 or 2 degrees higher it would probably get pulled north quicker, but I think as it heads near the coast of Nicaragua it will get pulled north more
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Did you ever wonder how many email accounts he must have?? Don't you have to have a new email account to register for the blog? You can't sign up using any previous email account --- I think.




gmail accounts are a dime a dozen,probably what he's up too,he's everywhere even was on the Barometer bob show and got me banned from posting questions,because I pointed out that he was a "troll from WU"...:p
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
1608. DDR
Belizeit
How bad is the flooding in your country?
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1607. fishcop
http://www.helium.com/items/1864136-how-the-ultimate-bp-gulf-disaster-could-kill-millions?page=3

This doesn't help my sleep at night
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1606. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Just in for a moment--
From Trinidad, 11n 61w....
you can have all this 'activity' around here, with our compliments!
It has been coming down hard since this morning, with no end in close sight.
Going to be flood issues tonight and tomorrow if things dont improve.

Hi pottery
It flooded today in Maraval/diego martin.If it rains tomorrow it will be 7 days in a row with rain.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

running out of real eastate though, thats all keeping it from developing imo.
I think ther is a possibility this system could get pulled to the n before reaching the cost by the trough currently over the USA . Could some one post steering models for this area please?
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1604. SQUAWK
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am stunned that he hasn't been banned in a more permanent way; 5 in 5 days?? That is an insult to this blog


Did you ever wonder how many email accounts he must have?? Don't you have to have a new email account to register for the blog? You can't sign up using any previous email account --- I think.
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1603. pottery
I am back out.....
maybe see you later.
(depends on what you are cooking, Amy. LOL)
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Quoting RTLSNK:
Monday, ThePlywoodState, deleted
Tuesday, Topography, deleted
Wednesday, HispanicWeather, deleted
Thursday, Conus, deleted
Friday, WestchesterCounty, deleted

Score: Admin 5, Troll 0

Thank You Admin!!!!!

Chuckle, Chortle, Snort :)


I am stunned that he hasn't been banned in a more permanent way; 5 in 5 days?? That is an insult to this blog
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7530
Quoting NRAamy:
Friday, WestchesterCounty, deleted



really? he called me a garbage dump on my blog....guess someone took the garbage out!


;)
I didn't know he attacked people on their personal blogs...I thought he just liked to stir up trouble on the main blog...wow..."whatachump"
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1600. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
non-husband!!!!!!

:)

Hello, Precious...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why yes, yes there is.


There is also a Hurricane, WV. And... (warning, not family rated!)

Lititz, Blue Ball, Bird in Hand and Intercourse all in Lancaster Co., PA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1598. NRAamy
non-husband!!!!!!

:)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm that AOI in the SW Carib has a good amount of vort at 850 level

running out of real eastate though, thats all keeping it from developing imo.
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1596. pottery
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
**yawns**

Where's all the activity? I LIKE ACTIVE!!!!!

:\

Just in for a moment--
From Trinidad, 11n 61w....
you can have all this 'activity' around here, with our compliments!
It has been coming down hard since this morning, with no end in close sight.
Going to be flood issues tonight and tomorrow if things dont improve.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1595. NRAamy
Friday, WestchesterCounty, deleted



really? he called me a garbage dump on my blog....guess someone took the garbage out!


;)
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well belizeit yeah I think you are right and also using that yellow crayon for that wave nearing the E caribbean ya
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1593. beell
A Favorite Place Name
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Thanks NCHurricane 2009. It's amazing how the satellites are actually precursors to the models development later. It still seems some data is missing from the models as to forecasting development as opposed to watching the satellites. I know Florida State has developed a very high rate of good predictions for the season however. There is a link to their predictions on a Google search or however you save it.


Try the FSU site Here http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Quoting msgambler:
Good evening everybody.....PcolaDan the "stream" you refer to in post 1552 has gotten a little bigger in the last few thousand years. It is a river now....LOL


Yea, I thought that was interesting too. Looks little bigger than a stream to me. :)
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Quoting tkeith:
Aint that where the long haired dude on American Idol this year was from?

Ding, Ding we have a winner.
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1589. JLPR2
The GFS develops a low with this area of convection in 18hrs but the ParaGFS has nothing.
*scratches head, its quite a difference XD*


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1588. SQUAWK
Quoting DestinJeff:


dooomp, doomp, doomp .. another one bites the dust. and another one down, another one down. another one bites the dust....


Good job!!!!!
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1587. IKE
There's a very little community in the extreme northern part of the Florida panhandle...south/SW of Dothan,AL...called....

Two Egg,Florida.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1586. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting RTLSNK:
Monday, ThePlywoodState, deleted
Tuesday, Topography, deleted
Wednesday, HispanicWeather, deleted
Thursday, Conus, deleted
Friday, WestchesterCounty, deleted

Score: Admin 5, Troll 0

Thank You Admin!!!!!

Chuckle, Chortle, Snort :)
empty space created soon to become a blackhole
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hmm that AOI in the SW Carib has a good amount of vort at 850 level
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I think NHC has there yellow crayon in there hands and are waiting for 8.00 o'clock to use it on the wave in the SW Caribbean because the convection has made it through dmin plus the wave has a anticyclone over it
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1583. tkeith
Dumas Arkansas...yep, my hometown :)
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What about Pine Tree, MS? Oh, right, that's everywhere...not a town...
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Good evening everybody.....PcolaDan the "stream" you refer to in post 1552 has gotten a little bigger in the last few thousand years. It is a river now....LOL
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1580. tkeith
Quoting claire4385:
Cool, TX

I'd like to live there lol...just so I could say I live in Cool :P
Aint that where the long haired dude on American Idol this year was from?
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1579. Danthar
Could live in hot coffee ms
Quoting claire4385:
Cool, TX

I'd like to live there lol...just so I could say I live in Cool :P
or youcouls could live in hot coffee,ms or cuba, al
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Thanks NCHurricane 2009. It's amazing how the satellites are actually precursors to the models development later. It still seems some data is missing from the models as to forecasting development as opposed to watching the satellites. I know Florida State has developed a very high rate of good predictions for the season however. There is a link to their predictions on a Google search or however you save it.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I don't have many links to computer models. It would be interesting to see if the models develop both waves (the wave E of Nicaragua which is under low shear from the upper ridge at 75W18N, and the wave approaching the Antilles which could also see low shear from that same upper ridge).


Okay, I found some links to computer models on this site:
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models.html
But I can't make most of the loops work. I found a working loop of the EMCWF model here:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP_loop.html

But, ECMWF doesn't really acknowledge either tropical wave.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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