Tropical Depression Two Along South Texas Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hello everybody, this is Senior Meteorologist Shaun Tanner writing Dr. Masters' blog while he is on vacation.

Tropical Depression Two formed overnight in the northern Bay of Campeche and is now making landfall along the extreme south coast of Texas. A hurricane hunter was sent into the system and found a low-level circulation. While there are some reports of tropical storm strength winds in the squalls of the system, there is just not enough evidence to upgrade the storm to tropical storm strength before landfall.

The satellite representation of the depression is quite impressive as half of the depression is now over landfall. Brownsville radar currently is showing the effects of the depression with heavy rain and thunderstorms through much of southern Texas.

The biggest lingering effect from the depression will be to prolong the devastating flooding that has been ongoing in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Not including the rain that will fall due to the depression, over the past 7 days, the area near Houston has received over 10 inches of rain, while some inland areas of Texas has received over 4 inches of rain. The problem gets worse in the Mexican state of Coahuila near the Texas border has received upwards of 20 inches of rain in the past 7 days due to substantial moisture pouring into the area.

This surging watershed has caused massive flooding throughout the region, with the area near Laredo, Texas and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico being the hardest hit. The flooding has caused the major border crossing between those two cities to be closed as the Rio Grande surged and threatened to top the crossing's bridge. A contingent of Mexican officials, including the mayor of Piedras Negras, Coahuila, touring the flooding damage in an airplane crashed Wednesday, killing all six onboard. Evacuations on both sides of the border has forced tens of thousands of people out of their homes, while over 100,000 people were without water service. The flooding problem is extra dangerous because swollen dams had to release some of their water downstream into areas that towns that have already been swamped. It was even reported that one of these releases by the National Water Commission of Mexico was the largest emergency water release in the country.

Needless to say, the rain from Tropical Depression Two will only further the flooding problems in southern Texas and northeast Mexico. Figure 3 shows the severe map and the greens represent Flood Watches and Warnings. You can see almost the entire states of Texas and Oklahoma are under these watches and warnings in anticipation of several inches of rain from the remnants of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 1. Satellite loop of Tropical Depression Two.


Figure 2. Storm-centered radar as depression makes landfall.


Figure 3. Severe map.

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Hmmmm.... 93W on NRL website...

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correct Baha
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1674. IKE
Mitch....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Ike it kinda reminds me of the time of year when Mitch formed, thats the type of pattern we are in.
Isn't that year one of the forecast analog years pple are using?
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1672. xcool
IKE . I guess we'll find out soon ;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
MIAhurr... that's QuiEt, not QuitE... might want to change the blog header...
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You know really with all due respect to the NHC, I quite don't understand this 0 to near 0%, unless they think something can spring/spin up in a few hours and catch them off guard, Why not even give it at least 5% or nothing at all and just give a general flood and rain warning!
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1669. tkeith
Tin Pan Alley RIP SRV

nice...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
Ike it kinda reminds me of the time of year when Mitch formed, thats the type of pattern we are in.
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Looks like this one is headed marou's and Weather456's way...

And some remarkable cold tops with the Twave heading into Central America... lucky this isn't moving Nward with time to traverse the warm waters west of JA....

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Quoting IKE:


I'm not joking...it is similar to 2007, so far.

This place is the roughest place in town sometimes...like a Tin Pan Alley RIP SRV
Exactly, so far, that doesn't mean it is going to be that way the entire season.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Blog Update!

July 9, 2010 - 7:55 PM EDT - Tropics Quiet; Enjoy While It Lasts
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1664. IKE
Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurri .come on now i was just joke.:)


I'm not joking...it is similar to 2007, so far.

This place is the roughest place in town sometimes...like a Tin Pan Alley RIP SRV
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1663. xcool
MiamiHurri .come on now i was just joke.:)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting IKE:
Parallel GFS shows a system heading for the Yucatan... northern Mexico/Brownsville Texas area...long range.

That's about it through July 25th.


I wouldn't particularly believe the parallel GFS. Even though it got an upgrade, its upgrade greatly reduced the convective feedback, so now it doesn't develop much, if any, storms. It didn't develop Alex or TD #2 as far as I'm aware of.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Quoting xcool:
YEP 2007 SET-UP
There isn't any 2007 set-up. Just because the first 2 systems tracked into the Yucatan, Mexico, and Texas doesn't mean that the entire season is going to be that way. Instead of 2007 you should be looking at 2004.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1660. xcool
YEP 2007 SET-UP
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
1659. IKE
Parallel GFS shows a system heading for the Yucatan... northern Mexico/Brownsville Texas area...long range.

That's about it through July 25th.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Hello everyone.

I have an announcement.

JFV IS WORSE THAN GLOBAL WARMING!!!!

Now, this is not because he is such a terrible troll.... no, this is because SOME PPLE IN THE BLOG CAN'T STOP TALKING ABOUT HIM!!!! What, has he got u guys hypnotized, that you have to make a full day's blog be focused on him? Most of us wouldn't even know this guy even EXISTED .... if u didn't talk about him so much!!!

I'm at the point where, not only am I minusing anybody trolling as JFV or anybody else, I'm inclined to minus all the pple simply talking about him!

Reminder: this is a blog about WEATHER, specifically tropical weather, and issues related thereto... NOT about people and personas and personalities....

EDIT:
PS. Sorry folks, it was just really annoying to come back to the blog hours later only to find that the one enduring topic of conversation was a troll....
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When the NAO is in its negative stage, does it increase trade winds?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Exactly right, near 0%. This tropical wave will be inland before tomorrow afternoon.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Come on blog, get active!!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
1654. IKE
Another system headed for Central America...notice a pattern here?

Central America and Mexico's year so far and extreme southern Texas...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1653. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MILES WEST OF LAREDO TEXAS. THESE ADVISORIES CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED BEFORE THIS SYSTEM REACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1652. Marou
I live in guadeloupe 1 hour ago we get some rain from the tropical wave approching my area...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Firefox 4 Beta

Downloaded it into my computer. It is even faster than Firefox 3.3.6 :o)!!
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1650. Marou
HI everybody !
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I could only imagine what this wave would do if it was moving into the NW Caribbean...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Hey All...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
that is 1 long and nasty line of thunderstorms from the cold front in the eastern part of the U.S. moving east at a pretty good clip anyone know what would happen to the front when it catches up with that cutoff low off the carolina's?
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Wow. On GoogleChrome now. Very nice, except for the no Quote. Anybody have a work-around for that?

Googlechrome is very fast, you can always highlight copy and paste!
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you are right MH09 but there is also surface convergence on that wave as well
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Goodnight every one I am out and will let you enjoy the slow blog
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Can you provide me a link so I can try it? Thanks :o)!
Firefox 4 Beta
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm using Firefox 4 beta, it is really great.

Can you provide me a link so I can try it? Thanks :o)!
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Quoting Bordonaro:
I'm using Firefox 4 beta, it is really great.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting DestinJeff:
Wow. On GoogleChrome now. Very nice, except for the no Quote. Anybody have a work-around for that?Jeff, does Google Chrome have more features than Firefox 3.6.3??
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Looks like the Arctic wants to loose all its ice this year i also see some pink areas of off Green Land witch are signs of things to come as water temperatures usually don't get warm enough so the map changes colors
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1637. Relix
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am stunned that he hasn't been banned in a more permanent way; 5 in 5 days?? That is an insult to this blog


You cannot permanently ban anyone.
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Any word yet of testing on these Coco Beach tar balls...
and no bonus points for cuckoo for Coco Balls..deal? heheheh

"A six-man crew hired by the U.S. Coast Guard began rolling down the beach Wednesday on all-terrain vehicles, gathering tar balls from Jetty Park to 16th Street South in Cocoa Beach.

The tar first was reported Tuesday, and officials initially said it might have come from a shrimp boat that sank in the area in mid-May.

But a trajectory analysis of the wreck by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found the ship’s fuel wouldn’t likely affect the shore, said Chris Evanson, a Coast Guard spokesman in Jacksonville.

Officials will continue to investigate."
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It looks like Cape Cod's micro-climate is at it again. Time and again the forecast has been for rain, and it dissipates prior to coming here, just like last summer only worse, as now we have the heat as well. Notice how even the light rain just vanishes prior to hitting the Cape, which is the elbow thing sticking out under Boston. It can be raining or snowing over the bridge in Plymouth, and we can be sunny, and vice versa.

Here's hoping that band of storms to the West dumps on us, but I've seen this trend time and time again, as the rain will go to our North and West, and die out before arrival, a repeating weather pattern for the summer months here on Cape Cod. We have fires in our conservation areas in Mashpee, and lawns are just brown everywhere. Greenhead flies have hatched a month early as it's been so dry. Although our kettle ponds had high water levels in May, the evaporation occurring now is bringing them right down.

If this trend continues for the summer the implications to the area are dire indeed. I'll be watching this and reporting as I did last year. I'm hoping for Murphy's law to kick in, and that we get soaked just because I posted this.
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Quoting DDR:
Belizeit
How bad is the flooding in your country?
We currently have no floods in our country the floods from Alex have subsided already
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1632. Dirtleg
I'm thinking Janiel probably is the family joke
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Quoting CJC111:
"Whatachump" My spell checker didn't like that one so I had to add it to my dictionary :) Amazing how quiet the blog is without an official AOI. 10 days to 2 weeks until the tropics get hyper active. Is that the general thinking?
It's kind of a family joke..."whatachicken" "whatachump" "whatawhimp" etc. etc. lol. My younger brother worked at Whataburger for two years in High School..
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Quoting StormW:


Kinda.
Yup. The upper level environment is hostile and the convection associated with it is just basically maintained by divergence caused by the TUTT. Likely no development will occur, just something to keep us entertained.



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1629. xcool
:0



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting DestinJeff:
No way the SW Carib thing goes anywhere but west.

Smack into Nicaragua looks like, but no way and never , well I try to avoid those words , they've smacked me in the face many times.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Evening everyone! I'm assuming that we are keeping tabs on the area east of the Antilles.

Oh Yea, also the SW Caribbean, though more organized its running out of real estate.Evening to you MH09
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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