Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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1841. Patrap
2:50 PM GMT on January 25, 2011
NEXRAD Radar
Tallahassee, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127546
1840. TampaTom
5:49 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Floodman:


It's been posted numerous times so far this season and doesn't seem to have the intended effect...


Alas, the slap needs to be more vigorous... :-)

How you doin, Flood?
Member Since: June 20, 2005 Posts: 22 Comments: 1050
1839. angiest
5:16 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Sure gets quiet when everybody's eating lunch!!!!


We are at the new blog. ;)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1838. hydrus
5:16 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Sure gets quiet when everybody's eating lunch!!!!
And there are some serious eating experts on this blog. If we were not allowed to talk weather anymore, food just might be next..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20505
1837. HarleyStormDude52
5:07 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Sure gets quiet when everybody's eating lunch!!!!
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
1836. angiest
5:01 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The two big cities I know of that were flooded and damaged by Alex were Monterrey and Matamoros. That was one intense storm.Great Pics BTW.


Unfortunately they seem likely to get at least a little more from TD2 (if they aren't already). Unfortunately, this moisture isn't going some place that can use it: Link


On Wednesday, the lake set a new record low, dropping close to 44 feet. It's the last thing that Lake Meredith officials wanted to do, but starting this week or next, they're going to add new wells out at their Roberts County well field.

Lake Meredith General Manager, Kent Satterwhite can't believe what he's seeing. In only a decade Meredith has dropped close to 20 feet setting a new low. It's something he thought would never happen.

Lake Meredith is in the Texas Panhandle, formed from the Canadian River. ISTR reading that the water pumps don't work below 45 feet and they have now had to start adding special pumps since the water is below that level.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1835. Floodman
4:56 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting SunriseSteeda:
Ha, I hear ya. I been a software engineer my entire career and now a college student (again) these past two years, so sitting in one place is the norm. I have to force myself to move.

In the meantime, I have been keeping an eye on the tropics and this blog while here in China (thankful this is not one of the many blocked sites). I worry about my house and property and an active season.

Here they've no idea what a tropical storm or hurricane can do, or even is for the most part. Very strange climate here, too. 106 one day, 78 the next. Thunderstorms with no rain. Heavy rain means 1/2 inch, not a foot like at home. Sand storms more frequent than real storms, and so on.

I get weird looks when I wear my hurricane related t-shirts (Miami Hurricanes jersey, Katrina benefit softball tournament jersey, Wilma benefit tourney jersey). But they can name all the players on the Miami Heat when I wear my 2006 Champions shirt ;)



It's interesting to see what one culture will key to as opposed to another...I'm not surprised that the Chinese are interested in American professional sports though
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1833. HarleyStormDude52
4:52 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is an equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that is planetary in scale discovered by Roland Madden and Paul Julian. The MJO is characterized by an eastward progression of large regions of both enhanced and suppressed tropical rainfall, observed mainly over the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. The anomalous rainfall is usually first evident over the western Indian Ocean, and remains evident as it propagates over the very warm ocean waters of the western and central tropical Pacific. This pattern of tropical rainfall then generally becomes very nondescript as it moves over the cooler ocean waters of the eastern Pacific but reappears over the tropical Atlantic and Indian Ocean. The wet phase of enhanced convection and precipitation is followed by a dry phase where thunderstorm activity is suppressed. Each cycle lasts approximately 30–60 days. Because of this pattern, The MJO is also known as the 30–60 day oscillation, 30–60 day wave, or intraseasonal oscillation.


WOOOO HOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
1832. mikatnight
4:51 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


Interestingly enough I just read that Wilma "weakened" as she crossed the state, but in western Broward county (edge of Everglades) she was certainly stronger than a 110-mph storm before she hit the coast.


Don't know the author of the quote, but it sounds right...

Actually, a hurricane will typically begin to decrease in intensity prior to its official landfall (characterized by the center of its eye crossing the coast). As I mentioned previously, an intensifying system like both Andrew and Alex are prime examples of hurricanes that tightened up their eyes due to the frictional effects of land. However, that did not and doesn't translate into a continued intensification of the storm in either its central pressure nor its MSW. Numerous studies have shown that a hurricanes MSW typically decreases by 5-10 % at the land-sea interface.

On the other hand, it is not too uncommon for TC's to begin to reintensify while over land as they approach very warm SST's as they are about to exit a particular coastline. This is what occurred during 1997 with TD Danny as it neared the NC Outer Banks. The same was true for TS Bonnie from 1998-when it intensified back to minimal hurricane intensity while moving over the Outer Banks as well.

The only known example of a TC that I am aware of that actually intensified over land right after it had come ashore was TS Fay in 2008. In that case, the atmospheric environment improved just after it crossed the SW Fl. coastline near Everglades City and was able to take advantage of the marshy wetlands of the Everglades.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1831. muddertracker
4:51 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
New blog everybody!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2337
1830. AussieStorm
4:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting StormChaser81:


It's a drop in the bucket to BP, they have money beyond belief.

yeah i no but I thought i should post it.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
1828. atmoaggie
4:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So who is the real bird from Baltimore?
with the "s". The other is some sort of affliction this place cannot seem to be rid of. Someone so desperate for companionship and attention that they need to pretend to be someone else in order to borrow their acquaintances. Probably never learned the difference between positive and negative attention as a child...hmmm, or hasn't yet learned this as a child.

This is someone that needs to broaden their hobbies or try dating, if at all possible, as they clearly have time on their hands and have no idea what to do with it. And heshe seems to have no sense of right and wrong. I expect that, without some intervention or growing up a tad, that future, more serious infractions will be committed by this person.

One second thought, maybe dating isn't a good idea. We would all be much better off with no offspring, thanks.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1827. WeatherNerdPR
4:50 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Waters are definitely warm enough for Subtropical, or even Tropical, development over the next 2 days or so. Wind Shear is in the Low/Moderate range, and there is a broad surface low. I give it a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.

Agreed.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
1826. MiamiHurricanes09
4:49 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting ElConando:


I totally forgot about his blog usually read it daily amongst a few others.
Me too. Drak should start doing entries, they sure would be good.

Now time to sit back and watch the birds from Baltimore bicker.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1825. HarleyStormDude52
4:49 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Ok....Novice here again!! MJO: Madden Julian Oscillation.. Google again! This is the very think I thrive on!! Thanks again to stormw's blog and key to terms!!!
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
1824. nrtiwlnvragn
4:49 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10875
1823. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:49 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Baltimorebird:


Coming from you that is funny JFV


She's not JFV.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
1821. ElConando
4:47 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Since the Atlantic basin is basically the warmest place in the world, the MJO won't be leaving for a while. To give you an idea, we likely will only be under downward motion this month for less than a week. For a better explanation contact Levi32's blog.


I totally forgot about his blog usually read it daily amongst a few others.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
1819. HouGalv08
4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting MagicSpork:
Hola everybody, long time listener, first time caller...

I tell ya, nothing is more depressing than looking out the window of your office building and seeing nothing but grey in all directions.

Actually, I take that back. The only thing more depressing than that is seeing a perfectly clear sky, knowing that thre are a bunch of drunk teenagers having fun on the beach while you're stuck at work
Awwww....doggonit! The shackels of adult responsibility!
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 357
1818. StormChaser81
4:46 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting AussieStorm:
BP's costs over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill soared overnight above $US3 billion ($3.6 billion), while a giant Taiwanese ship provided hope of revolutionising on-sea skimming operations.

"The cost of the response to date amounts to approximately $US3.12 billion, including the cost of the spill response, containment, relief well drilling, grants to the Gulf states, claims paid, and federal costs," BP said.

The latest estimate is far higher than the $US2.65 billion given by the energy firm one week ago.

BP's share price has collapsed more than 50 per cent since the Deepwater Horizon oil rig it leased sank on April 22, two days after a blast that killed 11 workers.

After intense pressure from President Barack Obama over the worst ever US environmental disaster, BP agreed last month to suspend its shareholder dividend and create a $US20 billion fund for costs arising from the spill.
BP is also selling non-core assets to raise $US10 billion, while international ratings agencies have downgraded the company's credit worthiness.

But yesterday, spokesman Robert Wine discredited a Sunday Times report that the company was turning to rival oil groups and sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the oil-rich Middle East to fend off a possible hostile takeover bid.

"We have no current plans to issue new equity," he told AFP.

Nearly a week after Hurricane Alex swept through the region, bad weather continued to hamper the clean-up, keeping smaller skimming vessels tied up in harbors in the affected Gulf states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Skimming and other operations have resumed in calmer seas off the coast of Louisiana, however.

Although there was no direct hit from Alex, this year's first major Atlantic storm provided a reminder of the urgent need to clean up a disaster surpassed only by Iraqi troops' deliberate release of crude in Kuwait during the 1991 Gulf War.

A major boon to the clean-up effort could come in the form of "A Whale," a giant ship converted by its Taiwanese owners into what they call the world's largest oil skimming vessel.

Owners TMT Shipping Offshore say the ship can suck up to 500,000 barrels (21 million gallons) of oily water a day through its "jaws," a series of vents on the side of the ship.

By comparison, more than 500 smaller vessels in 10 weeks have only managed to collect some 671,428 barrels of oil-water mix between them.

Tests on the "A Whale," which traveled more than half-way around the world from Taiwan to the Gulf, were ongoing and approval for it to start skimming operations could come as early as today.

The US Navy's MZ-3A Airship was expected to reach the Gulf Coast Tuesday to help detect oil, direct skimming vessels and search for wildlife threatened by the thick brown-orange mess.

And officials said disposal units known as Heavy Oil Recovery Devices (HORDs) are "greatly improving" clean-up operations.

Up to 1,000 units were expected to be up and running in the coming weeks, with a focus on sucking up thick-heavy oil that has thwarted traditional skimming methods.

The fractured pipe that connected the BP-leased platform to the well a mile (1600 metres) down on the seafloor has now spewed somewhere between two and four million barrels of oil into the Gulf.

The firm's current containment systems can only capture or flare some 25,000 barrels of oil a day, a number set to double when a third vessel is expected to be in place on Thursday.

It will likely be mid-August at the earliest before the ruptured well is permanently capped by injecting mud and cement with the aid of relief wells.


It's a drop in the bucket to BP, they have money beyond belief.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
1817. msphar
4:45 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Week 6 and all is quiet on the Eastern Front. Thank goodness.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
1816. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:45 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting IKE:
Looks like TD2 is now west of Brownsville,TX...

Brownsville, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 55 sec ago
Heavy Rain
79 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 22 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 30 mph

Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.8 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 3.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft


I expect Tropical Depression #2 to be deactivated late tonight.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
1815. AussieStorm
4:44 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
BP's costs over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill soared overnight above $US3 billion ($3.6 billion), while a giant Taiwanese ship provided hope of revolutionising on-sea skimming operations.

"The cost of the response to date amounts to approximately $US3.12 billion, including the cost of the spill response, containment, relief well drilling, grants to the Gulf states, claims paid, and federal costs," BP said.

The latest estimate is far higher than the $US2.65 billion given by the energy firm one week ago.

BP's share price has collapsed more than 50 per cent since the Deepwater Horizon oil rig it leased sank on April 22, two days after a blast that killed 11 workers.

After intense pressure from President Barack Obama over the worst ever US environmental disaster, BP agreed last month to suspend its shareholder dividend and create a $US20 billion fund for costs arising from the spill.
BP is also selling non-core assets to raise $US10 billion, while international ratings agencies have downgraded the company's credit worthiness.

But yesterday, spokesman Robert Wine discredited a Sunday Times report that the company was turning to rival oil groups and sovereign wealth funds from Asia and the oil-rich Middle East to fend off a possible hostile takeover bid.

"We have no current plans to issue new equity," he told AFP.

Nearly a week after Hurricane Alex swept through the region, bad weather continued to hamper the clean-up, keeping smaller skimming vessels tied up in harbors in the affected Gulf states of Mississippi, Alabama and Florida.

Skimming and other operations have resumed in calmer seas off the coast of Louisiana, however.

Although there was no direct hit from Alex, this year's first major Atlantic storm provided a reminder of the urgent need to clean up a disaster surpassed only by Iraqi troops' deliberate release of crude in Kuwait during the 1991 Gulf War.

A major boon to the clean-up effort could come in the form of "A Whale," a giant ship converted by its Taiwanese owners into what they call the world's largest oil skimming vessel.

Owners TMT Shipping Offshore say the ship can suck up to 500,000 barrels (21 million gallons) of oily water a day through its "jaws," a series of vents on the side of the ship.

By comparison, more than 500 smaller vessels in 10 weeks have only managed to collect some 671,428 barrels of oil-water mix between them.

Tests on the "A Whale," which traveled more than half-way around the world from Taiwan to the Gulf, were ongoing and approval for it to start skimming operations could come as early as today.

The US Navy's MZ-3A Airship was expected to reach the Gulf Coast Tuesday to help detect oil, direct skimming vessels and search for wildlife threatened by the thick brown-orange mess.

And officials said disposal units known as Heavy Oil Recovery Devices (HORDs) are "greatly improving" clean-up operations.

Up to 1,000 units were expected to be up and running in the coming weeks, with a focus on sucking up thick-heavy oil that has thwarted traditional skimming methods.

The fractured pipe that connected the BP-leased platform to the well a mile (1600 metres) down on the seafloor has now spewed somewhere between two and four million barrels of oil into the Gulf.

The firm's current containment systems can only capture or flare some 25,000 barrels of oil a day, a number set to double when a third vessel is expected to be in place on Thursday.

It will likely be mid-August at the earliest before the ruptured well is permanently capped by injecting mud and cement with the aid of relief wells.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
1814. will45
4:44 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
311 AM EDT THU JUL 8 2010

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-090715-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
311 AM EDT THU JUL 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY WITH THE
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS. MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$




Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
1813. SunriseSteeda
4:44 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting SunriseSteeda:

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...


Also it might depend on the land features themselves. Hurricane Wilma strengthened as she crossed the Florida Everglades (October 24th, 2005) and was a stronger storm wind-wise (maybe pressure as well) as she raked across Broward and Palm Beach counties, than when she made landfall near Naples, on the west coast.

In her case, it was probably the lack of land friction (no hills or buildings in the everglades) and perhaps even the heat content of the watery swamp.

Of course I am no expert, so take that as opinion :)



Interestingly enough I just read that Wilma "weakened" as she crossed the state, but in western Broward county (edge of Everglades) she was certainly stronger than a 110-mph storm before she hit the coast.
Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1812. MiamiHurricanes09
4:44 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


BaltimoreBirds
I know, LOL, I was just messin' around.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1811. IKE
4:43 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Looks like TD2 is now west of Brownsville,TX...

Brownsville, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 55 sec ago
Heavy Rain
79 °F
Heavy Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 22 mph from the South
Wind Gust: 30 mph

Pressure: 29.77 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.8 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 3.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1200 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1810. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:43 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So who is the real bird from Baltimore?


BaltimoreBirds
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
1809. MiamiHurricanes09
4:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting Baltimorebird:
No on tropical storm formation
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Translation:the aliens speak spanish.
So who is the real bird from Baltimore?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1808. mikatnight
4:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Haven't noticed 456 on the blog lately. He's still around, right?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1807. MiamiHurricanes09
4:41 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting ElConando:
Los extranjeros hablan espanol!

Una Pregunta, The MJO pulse is coming in next week right?
Since the Atlantic basin is basically the warmest place in the world, the MJO won't be leaving for a while. To give you an idea, we likely will only be under downward motion this month for less than a week. For a better explanation contact Levi32's blog.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1805. SunriseSteeda
4:41 PM GMT on July 08, 2010

Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...


Also it might depend on the land features themselves. Hurricane Wilma strengthened as she crossed the Florida Everglades (October 24th, 2005) and was a stronger storm wind-wise (maybe pressure as well) as she raked across Broward and Palm Beach counties, than when she made landfall near Naples, on the west coast.

In her case, it was probably the lack of land friction (no hills or buildings in the everglades) and perhaps even the heat content of the watery swamp.

Of course I am no expert, so take that as opinion :)

Member Since: July 16, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
1804. extreme236
4:41 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
I'm fairly confident we will see a system or two next week. I guess TD 2 was just one of those depressions that never become tropical storms.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1803. TexasHurricane
4:40 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


ITCZ certainly is active today. Hard to believe we won't get a system in that area the next few weeks.


yeah, or then again who knows...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1802. atmoaggie
4:40 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting MagicSpork:
Hola everybody, long time listener, first time caller...

I tell ya, nothing is more depressing than looking out the window of your office building and seeing nothing but grey in all directions.

Actually, I take that back. The only thing more depressing than that is seeing a perfectly clear sky, knowing that thre are a bunch of drunk teenagers having fun on the beach while you're stuck at work
Could be worse. I work in a basement. The view never changes...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1801. asgolfr999
4:39 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
ok... somebody "splain" to me.. How does a TD turn into a TS after it hits land.. Like I said I am just a novice at this soooo...


It doesn't
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 312
1799. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:39 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting NickThompson:
Is anybody watching the swirl of cloud east of the Carolinas? The water is surely warm enough there.

nthompson


Waters are definitely warm enough for Subtropical, or even Tropical, development over the next 2 days or so. Wind Shear is in the Low/Moderate range, and there is a broad surface low. I give it a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
1798. MagicSpork
4:39 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Hola everybody, long time listener, first time caller...

I tell ya, nothing is more depressing than looking out the window of your office building and seeing nothing but grey in all directions.

Actually, I take that back. The only thing more depressing than that is seeing a perfectly clear sky, knowing that thre are a bunch of drunk teenagers having fun on the beach while you're stuck at work
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 43
1797. ElConando
4:38 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Los extranjeros hablan espanol!

Una Pregunta, The MJO pulse is coming in next week right?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3710
1795. HarleyStormDude52
4:36 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
atmoaggie... thanks for the TD-TS explanation. Now I get it!
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
1794. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:36 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31454
1793. atmoaggie
4:36 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting K8eCane:
ok beginning to get a little grayer and breezier here
In the blog, or outside?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1792. WeatherNerdPR
4:35 PM GMT on July 08, 2010
Quoting StormChaser81:


Thats funny, Cape Verde waves are in the ITCZ.

I already know that.MH09 told me. Again, I said I was 11. I'm not an expert. :|
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
76 °F
Scattered Clouds