Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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1441. Patrap
Quoting Hurricanes101:


95L had very little rain too, if any




LOL

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125620
Quoting reedzone:
Ikes count remains at 1-0-0


You mean 1-1-0 right?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
1439. cg2916
Land ho!

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Quoting Jeff9641:
The more impressive system was 95L. 95L makes TD 2 look like a whimp. Hardly any rain on north side of center.


+1 I agree 100% TD#2 looks like an open tropical wave. Did they ever find west winds ?
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Ikes count remains at 1-1-0
*corrected*
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
Quoting Jeff9641:
Pattern will change over the next several days with troughing over the east and this could continue into August. Also with what I am seeing I will lower my numbers from 18 10 7 to 15 8 5 similar to 2004 I believe.

Jeff,
What are you using to predict the pattern change? We have had the current one a month now and sooner or later it will change but I am looking for some forecasting tools to at least get an idea of what it will change too.
I wouldn't give up on higher numbers for the season just yet but getting close..
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Believe it or not but, it is so called...some in here think it should be Bonnie....hehehehehe
It qualifies for the criteria of a tropical cyclone and tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Tropical Depression:

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1434. IKE
1-1-0 lives on.

Day 38
145 to go and we all live through it.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1433. Patrap
TD 2 was going downhill after Bugs Bunny showed up Last night

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125620
1432. ryang
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

REPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE...AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER
IS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME.
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS
APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SHORT
TIME REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE
WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED

WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
You sound quite the opposite of how people were talking yesterday about 95L. Or maybe it could just be that the NHC actually knows what they are doing? No, no, that would make way too much sense, can't be that.


lol agreed, lets just fire all the guys at the NHC and replace them with people from here
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
For those of you wondering why this poor little ragged mess was upgraded...the NHC often errs on the side of caution, especially,
when the entity is in close proximity to land and moving along briskly. Regardless of its
poor appearance , it will bring unneeded rain to already soaked areas...Pray for our friends in Mexico/s. Texas...
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Quoting TampaSpin:
The way NHC is handling things this year we might have 30 storms and 60 Invest to work with....This i hope does not get named! There is hardly any banding at all....Zeppo..
You sound quite the opposite of how people were talking yesterday about 95L. Or maybe it could just be that the NHC actually knows what they are doing? No, no, that would make way too much sense, can't be that.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
The more impressive system was 95L. 95L makes TD 2 look like a whimp. Hardly any rain on north side of center.


95L had very little rain too, if any

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Quoting AussieStorm:

so it would be named... Unnamed Tropical Storm 1?


I would think so since Alex was a Hurricane, either 1 or 2.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1425. cg2916
Still TD2:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 081432
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...
BRINGING RAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO....


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF TEXAS SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO RIO SAN
FERNANDO

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE
97.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15
MPH...24 KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL CROSS THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND
WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND COASTAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.

WIND...WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY OCCUR IN SQUALLS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
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A ragged, yet decent looking TD, but only a TD. Should have been classified on this update then last night. I gotta question the NHC judgement on their criteria for naming storms.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1423. IKE
WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.


Good...weaken and die before you flood out the area again.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Drakoen:
02L just a little too late


Agreed Drak. Running out of real estate.
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Quoting cg2916:


THIS is a TD?


Believe it or not but, it is so called...some in here think it should be Bonnie....hehehehehe
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Quoting TampaSpin:


NO there you go again.....LOL


Well, I've been Reaganed I suppose.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
1419. Patrap
Wamp-wahhhhhh,....
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125620
1418. calder
Quoting CybrTeddy:
No TD at 11. Bonnie is not going to happen anymore.
TD2 will go unnamed.


Think they'll keep it at TD, no?
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1417. aquak9
ok, no more shenanigans from me-

peace ya'll.

(the snozberries taste just like snozberries)
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1416. cg2916
Quoting AussieStorm:

so it would be named... Unnamed Tropical Storm 1?


It would be named "Unnamed Tropical Storm".
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Quoting btwntx08:

disagree storm is right :P


How so ?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
No TD at 11. Bonnie is not going to happen anymore.
TD2 will go unnamed.


NO there you go again.....LOL
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
No TD at 11. Bonnie is not going to happen anymore.
TD2 will go unnamed.
The 10AM CDT NHC is out and TD2 remains, TD2. No Bonnie, no wammies, do not pass go, do not collect $200.
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1412. Drakoen
02L just a little too late
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Quoting reedzone:


Unnamed Tropical Storm

so it would be named... Unnamed Tropical Storm 1?
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1410. cg2916


THIS is a TD?
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1408. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125620
No TD at 11. Bonnie is not going to happen anymore.
TD2 will go unnamed.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting AussieStorm:

So if TD2 is named in post season, what name will it get? Bonnie???
What if we get a Hurricane next week and it's called Bonnie, will it bw renamed like all other hurricanes during the rest of the season?


It would be designated similar to this from 2006:

Tropical Storm (Unnamed)**

** This unnamed tropical cyclone was identified during NHC's post-season re-analysis
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Raining at least 2 inches an hour on the east side of Houston. Poor Houston will be flooded in an hour if not already.
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1403. calder
Quoting FLdewey:
Liter Cola? Do we sell Liter Cola?


Littering and...
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1402. angiest
Quoting AussieStorm:

So if TD2 is named in post season, what name will it get? Bonnie???
What if we get a Hurricane next week and it's called Bonnie, will it bw renamed like all other hurricanes during the rest of the season?


It would become Unnamed Tropical Storm. I don't know how they number those.
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Did they "Bonnie it" yet?? Over/under for 2010 = 23 in Vegas. A makeup for 95L!! 1005 mb = T.S. Storms come in all shapes/sizes***
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Quoting AussieStorm:

So if TD2 is named in post season, what name will it get? Bonnie???
What if we get a Hurricane next week and it's called Bonnie, will it bw renamed like all other hurricanes during the rest of the season?


Unnamed Tropical Storm
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1399. aquak9
Quoting FLdewey:
Liter Cola? Do we sell Liter Cola?


no spit in the cheeseburger
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...POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL...
BRINGING RAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO....

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting watchingnva:
lmao!!...i saw them referring to it as Bonnie on some national show this morning...and just laughed...
They probably classify the next Bonnie to be her twin sister or say: "Hey, mira,tiene el mismo nombre que la ultima!" Hey, look it has the same name as the last one!
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Hey, Watching - our youngest is up at VCU in Richmond until the 17th, no email, no phones. Got the first snail mail yesterday - "send more shorts, please!!" Thank goodness the dorm has A/C, but that doesn't help much when they are outside!
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1393. Patrap
Poofage Du Jour..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125620
looks to me like td2 is making landfall now!!
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.