Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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1491. tkeith
Quoting Jeff9641:


No it isn't 95L had some intense rainbands on the eastside that did produce 10" plus rain totals on Tuesday.
I'll attest to that.
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Again, got to give TD2 to the ECMWF. Got it well in advance and were it made landfall even too. 216 hours ago ECMWF had this system nailed. ECMWF no longer develops the CV system (does show a low of some sort) so we'll have to watch the 12z to see if it shows the system as strong as the last 12z did.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23013
1489. cg2916
Quoting TampaSpin:


YOUR A JOKE KID! You don't need to tell me what qualifies.......POOOOF


Bad idea, he provides a lot of info here.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


YOUR A JOKE KID! You don't need to tell me what qualifies.......POOOOF
Thank God you finally did it. I've been asking for that for a long time.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
In my opinion,95L is a nothing,it was nothing,and never will be anything.It's history,same case with 92L,everyone was like,"omg,this is a TD,the nhc is totaly wrong,omg!"Which word should I use,yours or the nhc?
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Quoting canehater1:
For those of you wondering why this poor little ragged mess was upgraded...the NHC often errs on the side of caution, especially,
when the entity is in close proximity to land and moving along briskly. Regardless of its
poor appearance , it will bring unneeded rain to already soaked areas...Pray for our friends in Mexico/s. Texas...



This isn't true either.
The last few years we have had several undisgnated TC's go up the east coast that caused TS and 'cane conditions on the NC coast and points north. Where was the "erring on the side of caution then"?
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By that definition, TD2 never should have been classified last night as convection was minimal and clearly on the decline. They upgraded it due to the spiral band but we've seen those situations before and the NHC did not classify. That's the frustration with them is the inconsistency. If Stacy Stewart hadn't issued the special TWO for 95L no one would have ever paid attention to it even though everyone was writing it off. And it very likely could be classified an unnamed depression at the end of the season.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It qualifies for the criteria of a tropical cyclone and tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Tropical Depression:

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.
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Storm! What's up?
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1482. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:
I like this blog...it cracks me up!


Very very opinionated

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Quoting Floodman:


Wearing a Groucho disguise and a ball cap

Yo Flood!!!!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
only thing I question is, if you classified this a TD last night based on 35mph winds found in the squall on the eastern side, then why is this not Bonnie now since they are finding TS force winds in those same squalls?


They did not classify the system based on winds, Initial Discussion but on organization. They set the initial intensity estimate based on winds.
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1479. calder
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It qualifies for the criteria of a tropical cyclone and tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Tropical Depression:

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.


The arguement for not classifying 95L was the lack of persistent convection over a period of at least 12 hours. Did 96L really meet this criteria considering it's wane in convection last night. Was a weird invest for sure, I doubt it would've been named so quickly if it had been out in the atlantic.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


No it isn't 95L had some intense rainbands on the eastside that did produce 10" plus rain totals on Tuesday.
Do you know what 10 inches of rain are inside a system the size of Miami-Dade (I mean Wade, lol) county? Please give me the link you are referencing to.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1477. cg2916
Quoting Hurricanes101:
only thing I question is, if you classified this a TD last night based on 35mph winds found in the squall on the eastern side, then why is this not Bonnie now since they are finding TS force winds in those same squalls?


Because if they're in squalls away from the center, they don't count as much because in an organized system, the stronger winds should be closer to the center.
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1475. katroy
Quoting angiest:


Last night invest 96L was upgraded to TD2.


Thank you. Do you know if it just an oversight that the main page appears as if there are two systems (one for Tropical Depression Two and another for 96L)? I don't remember seeing anything like this with previous storms or in previous seasons. Thanks much!
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Quoting swlavp:
I had 6" of rain in SWLA from it.


most of that was due to the front, the Tampa/St Pete area got 5-6 inches last week too from the front that was attached to 95L
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1472. Patrap
Miami ?

Some have the ego centric Locale syndrome..if 95L would have been any where near Miami it would have drawn 6000posts from TPHFC alone..




LMAO..and the Uproar would have been well..

Ya know da drill
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
1471. swlavp
Quoting Hurricanes101:


95L had very little rain too, if any

I had 6" of rain in SWLA from it.
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Quoting StormW:
I like this blog...it cracks me up!
That makes two of us...LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1469. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:
only thing I question is, if you classified this a TD last night based on 35mph winds found in the squall on the eastern side, then why is this not Bonnie now since they are finding TS force winds in those same squalls?


No west winds found on recon for the last 2+ hours.

It's not a closed low. It was at one time...it isn't now.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1467. cg2916
Quoting StormW:
I like this blog...it cracks me up!


Which is part of the reason I come here.
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Quoting sailingallover:

Fails on "organized deep convection" which is way to subjective in a big way in my book.
Looks to have organized deep convection to me.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting cg2916:


JFV would sneak in...


Wearing a Groucho disguise and a ball cap
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only thing I question is, if you classified this a TD last night based on 35mph winds found in the squall on the eastern side, then why is this not Bonnie now since they are finding TS force winds in those same squalls?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1460. cg2916
Quoting reedzone:


I corrected it.. Thought the 0 was for major hurricane. 1-1-0


No, it's 1-1-1-0. LOL

But really, TDs count.
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Quoting Patrap:
TD 2 was going downhill after Bugs Bunny showed up Last night


FUNNY!
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CNN said that TD 2 has made landfall. We won't see Bonnie soon.
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1456. IKE
Brownsville, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 34 min 47 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
81 °F

Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the NW
Pressure: 29.78 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 88 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 3.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 500 ft
Scattered Clouds 3300 ft
Scattered Clouds 7000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CoopsWife:
Hey, Watching - our youngest is up at VCU in Richmond until the 17th, no email, no phones. Got the first snail mail yesterday - "send more shorts, please!!" Thank goodness the dorm has A/C, but that doesn't help much when they are outside!


yea, i dont know what it is about this summer so far...its been pretty ridiculous...yesterday was the 10th 100 degree day here...we usual dont get half of that in an entire summer...lol...and we are in a revolving pattern...and if models stay the way they are today...we will be back in the 100s in 8 days for another week stretch...lmao...i checked accuweather for the hell of it this morning, and they have the area down for 100-104 for 16th through the 22nd...and who knows how much longer ...this, is not normal...lol

and im still gonna rant about us not having a heat advisory yesterday...we were basically on the higher end of the northeast' high temps and nothing...lol
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Quoting Jeff9641:


10 to 15" of rain came out of 95L with 30 to 35 mph sustained winds.
That is an exaggeration. Plus, you're mixing in rain from the frontal boundary and not just 95L. 96L will be a much more devastating system than 95L was. Hopefully it isn't.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You mean 1-1-0 right?


I corrected it.. Thought the 0 was for major hurricane. 1-1-0
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
1452. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
And you're telling me 95L had convection. Lol, I've seen afternoon thunderstorms in Miami appear more ominous than 95L ever did.


And they form in like 5-10 minutes down there.
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1451. cg2916
Actually the count is now 1-1-1-0.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It qualifies for the criteria of a tropical cyclone and tropical depression.

Tropical Cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Tropical Depression:

A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained surface wind speed (using the U.S. 1-minute average) is 33 kt (38 mph or 62 km/hr) or less.

Fails on "organized deep convection" which is way to subjective in a big way in my book.
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i think i see a spin by the Yucatan, and there also seems to be a small spin off the e. coast of Florida. there is also an area down in the southern Caribbean. can anyone clarify what I'm seeing? thanks in advance:)
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1447. Patrap
Ciao fer now, cher's
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628
Quoting Jeff9641:
The more impressive system was 95L. 95L makes TD 2 look like a whimp. Hardly any rain on north side of center.
And you're telling me 95L had convection. Lol, I've seen afternoon thunderstorms in Miami appear more ominous than 95L ever did.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
1443. cg2916
Quoting Hurricanes101:


lol agreed, lets just fire all the guys at the NHC and replace them with people from here


JFV would sneak in...
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Don't get me wrong.....this will be a very dangerous systemt moving into South Texas and Mexico as the ground are already full from Alex. But, there is in no way should this be named Bonnie and i really don't think it deserves TD status looking at it...i was on last night when it got updated and i could not believe the upgrade last night....i was hoping visible would shed some light! Visible did and it does not deserve much other than a tremendous rain maker that will be deadly.
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1441. Patrap
Quoting Hurricanes101:


95L had very little rain too, if any




LOL

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125628

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.