Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting calder:
Also, is there anyone that agrees with me that the NHC have done a great job in the last few weeks with systems that have been extremely unpredictable. I think they've shown considerable levels of both restraint and affirmitave action.


I would disagree in that they were wrong on the July 5 18Z TWO when they lowered 95L to "near 0%". They know that rapid organization/dissipation occurs and there is no skill in forecasting it. Never discount a potential system untill it has dissipated.
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1539. NRAamy
SQUAWK!!!!
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1538. Patrap
Fascinating,,eh TS ?

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting calder:
Also, is there anyone that agrees with me that the NHC have done a great job in the last few weeks with systems that have been extremely unpredictable. I think they've shown considerable levels of both restraint and affirmitave action.



The TPC (NHC to some of you) does an absoloutly wonderful job of forecasting where storms are going only after the storm is well developed.
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1534. Patrap
S, s, s, Sallllllllllllllllll


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
So this front i got pictured caused this 10" of rain and not that little swirly thing on here.......HORRIBLE INFO....HORRIBLE

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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC dammed if they do (96L), dammed if they don't (95L).



If they were more consistant with there designation practices, it would not be this way.


Actually if people actually took the time to understand what the criteria was for a tropical cyclone and not be so fixated on the appearance of the system; maybe they would understand a bit better

I feel they were right on all the systems in question - 90L, 92L and 95L were did not meet the requirements. 96L did
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting Floodman:
Aussie! How's things?

Hey Flood, Going fine mate, other than the flu which is slowing down my training/exercise, but it'll be soon out of my system. Did you get to talk to Paul yet, WU-mail me if you have.
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1529. angiest
Quoting katroy:


Thank you. Do you know if it just an oversight that the main page appears as if there are two systems (one for Tropical Depression Two and another for 96L)? I don't remember seeing anything like this with previous storms or in previous seasons. Thanks much!


It happens sometime after an invest is classed as a TC. Maybe the webmaster is on vacation. ;)
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1528. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting StormW:


Not too much. How have you been? How's the back doing?


I'm good...been busy getting ready for what may be a nasty storm season...the back is good; bothers me sometimes but nothing like before, thanks for asking
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1525. Patrap
Los Open Wave..?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1524. cg2916
Quoting AussieStorm:

If the NHC did that, they would become a laughing stock.


They already are with some on the blog.

BRB
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1523. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC dammed if they do (96L), dammed if they don't (95L).



If they were more consistant with there designation practices, it would not be this way.
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1521. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC dammed if they do (96L), dammed if they don't (95L).


They did the right thing sending recon in this morning.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting 7544:
bonnie will be named today at 2pm watch they want to use up some names before the real storm start

If the NHC did that, they would become a laughing stock.
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1517. cg2916
Quoting 7544:
bonnie will be named today at 2pm watch they want to use up some names before the real storm start


That's just stupid (no offense intended). The NHC doesn't want to just use up names. Heck, by 2 PM it'll have already started weakening. It's not even a closed low anymore.
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You know what's funny? I take someone off ignore and within two days they pull something ignorant and they go right back on again...the arrogance I see here from some is not warranted given their track records
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1515. Patrap
Orleans

Forecasts for Louisiana — Return to U.S. Severe Weather
Current Severe Weather

Coastal Flood Statement

Statement as of 3:56 AM CDT on July 08, 2010

Astronomical high tides will remain above normal through
Friday... but the threat of coastal flooding is decreasing as
atmospheric pressures rise and southeasterly winds decrease.
While coastal flooding is no longer expected... water levels at
time of high tide... through noon today... will run about a foot to
a foot and a half above predicted values. This may produce local
minor flooding in particularly flood prone locations.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting sarahjola:
i think i see a spin by the Yucatan, and there also seems to be a small spin off the e. coast of Florida. there is also an area down in the southern Caribbean. can anyone clarify what I'm seeing? thanks in advance:)
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC dammed if they do (96L), dammed if they don't (95L).


yup apparently so

I am never listening to the NHC again, instead I will listen to the people on here, after all they know more right?

*rolls eyes*
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
1512. calder
Also, is there anyone that agrees with me that the NHC have done a great job in the last few weeks with systems that have been extremely unpredictable. I think they've shown considerable levels of both restraint and affirmitave action.
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I wouldn't be shocked if they downgrade TD#2 to a tropical wave after the season is over :)
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1510. cg2916
Quoting TampaSpin:


ROFLMAO


...
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1509. 7544
bonnie will be named today at 2pm watch they want to use up some names before the real storm start
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Aussie! How's things?
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1506. scott39
Goodmorning, Are any of the reliable models sniffing out an early Cape Verde TC?
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NHC dammed if they do (96L), dammed if they don't (95L).
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I got a feeling today's going to be gruesome on the blog so I'm going to RTLS this shuttle out and I'll talk to you all when the next ECMWF run comes out a 3 pm.
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Quoting cg2916:


Bad idea, he provides a lot of info here.


ROFLMAO
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1502. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Do you know what 10 inches of rain are inside a system the size of Miami-Dade (I mean Wade, lol) county? Please give me the link you are referencing to.


What he seems to be failing to realize is that "band" was enhanced by the front, even the day 95L was close to land we had said that heating of the day and the front would spark off more intense storms
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
1499. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Again, got to give TD2 to the ECMWF. Got it well in advance and were it made landfall even too. 216 hours ago ECMWF had this system nailed. ECMWF no longer develops the CV system (does show a low of some sort) so we'll have to watch the 12z to see if it shows the system as strong as the last 12z did.


ECMWF has been great this season.

I've noticed the GFS has been downcasting this season. Did it get an upgrade? I know the HWRF did.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


95L had very little rain too, if any

actually 95l caused some very heavy rains in mandeville. now it really had no wind with it but it had very heavy rains, and it lasted all day. it also roughed up the seas. the lake had waves crashing over the wall in mandeville la. 95l had a good bit of rain:)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks to have organized deep convection to me.


You mean the three little dots and one blob made that popped up just this morning and are highlighted by a computer with color to make them stand out?
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1495. Patrap
Hee,hee,heee...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1494. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thank God you finally did it. I've been asking for that for a long time.


...?
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1492. Patrap
95L

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1491. tkeith
Quoting Jeff9641:


No it isn't 95L had some intense rainbands on the eastside that did produce 10" plus rain totals on Tuesday.
I'll attest to that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.