Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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off topic, but Floodman, hope your continued recovery is successful. few that have not had spine issues or procedures can truly empathize. I had ALIF 3 yrs ago (after 7 other procedures) and still struggle with it today, but yesterday I climbed an un-restored, rural stretch of the Great Wall of China as my first real test and it was successful ;)


Quoting Floodman:


I'm good...been busy getting ready for what may be a nasty storm season...the back is good; bothers me sometimes but nothing like before, thanks for asking
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1590. Patrap
TD-2 Wind Field inland
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
Quoting TampaSpin:
Some very Strong waves in the ITCZ.....with the ITCZ climbing North...and now we got all of this running smack into MJO .....buckle up and pull the straps on tight!











The wave near 40W appears well-organized. That needs to be monitored if it can lift enough to miss South America.
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Other than a slight relaxing and shift east beginning of next week, then slight shift north but with Higher pressures the B/A high is going to remain the dominant Atlantic factor. Slight window of decreased dust next week from the shift east but winds >20+knots of the African coast will keep most of the MDR dusted for the next 180hours.
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1587. Patrap
Ohm,..Ohm..


Nirvana has been attained.

Now for some mo java.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
New blogger here. I'm only 11
so don't insult me if I ask something dumb.


Welcome. I am a self-professed "weather weenie" too.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I love how this blog has became a Kiddie site and these Kiddie's correcting what they think every bloggers post....UNBELIEVABLE! JUST THE FACTS!


You know, the way you're flailing around, one would think someone had struck a nerve or something...you OK?
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Quoting IKE:


The missions they were flying...they're higher up in the atmosphere and can't detect a circulation or can they?


Not really, difficult to interpolate the wind direction at 12K feet to near surface and as far as I am aware there is no directional component to the SFMR, only windspeed. The 3D Radar they were researching would give an indication, but I don't know how realtime that data is currently available.
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Look at that vorticity off the east coast of US



Dry air is bieng cut off



Convergence:



Dropping shear


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I wonder why the NHC has not put a circle yet on the area off the Carolinas

that ULL has worked its way to the surface now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7684
Quoting StormW:
I like this blog...it cracks me up!

You and me both! :)


Cheap entertainment no doubt.
That is the reason I don't ever "poof" anyone!
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TD Two/Former 96L would have been MUCH better off if it had formed into a TD in the Caribbean, then it would have likely moved much farther north than Alex, and would have stood a much better chance at TS/Hurricane Bonnie.
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1576. Squid28
Quoting Floodman:
You know what's funny? I take someone off ignore and within two days they pull something ignorant and they go right back on again...the arrogance I see here from some is not warranted given their track records


So true....
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Some very Strong waves in the ITCZ.....with the ITCZ climbing North...and now we got all of this running smack into MJO .....buckle up and pull the straps on tight!









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1574. Becca36
Quoting StormW:
I like this blog...it cracks me up!

You and me both! :)
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New blogger here. I'm only 11
so don't insult me if I ask something dumb.
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Quoting StormW:


That's good!


I like to think so...LOL
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From now on, each disturbance will initially have a 0-100% probability of development. O.K.?
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96L is aiming at Louisiana
Amazing
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Quoting atmoaggie:
But, why couldn't that be done on shore as a final QC check?


We would have to wait more than 10 minutes to see the data :)
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Quoting putintang3:
ok so that one is done, What is next? Where else should I start looking for the next wave?
i think i see a spin by the Yucatan, and there also seems to be a small spin off the e. coast of Florida. there is also an area down in the southern Caribbean. can anyone clarify what I'm seeing? thanks in advance:)
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
If they had sent recon into 95L it could have easily been upgraded the day before it made landfall in LA


It was still attached to the frontal boundary at that point; again the basic definition of a tropical cyclone is it has to be non-frontal in nature; 95L was frontal in nature over all of its lifetime with the exception of the last 3 hours before landfall

Had it shed that front even 12 hours earlier, I agree with you it probably could have gotten classified, but it didn't
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7684
No matter the criteria set to designate a system, there will always be marginal systems to that criteria. Maybe some day we will have a geosynchronous real time Scatterometer/Microwave satellite to instantly identify wind speed/direction and core structure.

Unless we set the criteria to over water, moisture present, wind present. We will then name thunderstorms.
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The wave in the Caribbean is becoming better organized. Also, the one near the Leeward islands is organizing. Almost every feature starts spinning early this year! Watch for floods in Texas! Turn around, don't drown is true.
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Quoting putintang3:
ok so that one is done, What is next? Where else should I start looking for the next wave?



Watch the ATL off of the Carolinas.
Upper low moving sw will pinwheel a surface feature to near the coast where it it will begin its transition to warm-core and then move north by northeast to make an intersting weekend in the heatwave areas and beyond.
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Me featured on a Official Website of the United States Government.


Restore The Gulf.gov
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1560. SQUAWK
AMY!!!!!!

How is Rock and Roll??
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Flood, Going fine mate, other than the flu which is slowing down my training/exercise, but it'll be soon out of my system. Did you get to talk to Paul yet, WU-mail me if you have.


You have mail!
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Plus what is the computing power of the on-board SFMR? Since it was developed in the 90s, like most government applications probably has not seen an upgrade in technology.
But, why couldn't that be done on shore as a final QC check?
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If they had sent recon into 95L it could have easily been upgraded the day before it made landfall in LA
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1556. scott39
The horse is dead!
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Quoting StormW:


Glad to hear. I know you had a rough time with it.


Yeah, but the relief after surgery was a tangible thing...any pain I have now is a pale echo by comparison
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1554. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


IMO they should not have cancelled yesterday afternoon's mission. I believe they would have found a TD at that time, based on the ASCAT pass in the same approximate timeframe.


The missions they were flying...they're higher up in the atmosphere and can't detect a circulation or can they?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
ok so that one is done, What is next? Where else should I start looking for the next wave?
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11:00 AM National Hurricane Center Advisory
-GRAPHICS UPDATE
Tropical Depression Two

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1551. cg2916
Quoting TampaSpin:
I love how this blog has became a Kiddie site and these Kiddie's correcting what they think every bloggers post....UNBELIEVABLE! JUST THE FACTS!


Poof
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Quoting IKE:


They did the right thing sending recon in this morning.


IMO they should not have cancelled yesterday afternoon's mission. I believe they would have found a TD at that time, based on the ASCAT pass in the same approximate timeframe.
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1549. calder
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I would disagree in that they were wrong on the July 5 18Z TWO when they lowered 95L to "near 0%". They know that rapid organization/dissipation occurs and there is no skill in forecasting it. Never discount a potential system untill it has dissipated.


ok, i agree with that. However, the chaos that ensued on the blog when they raised it to 60 then back to 0 was just ridiculous..
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Honestly, they won't classify 90L in May of 2009, 92L (which had an eye) of June of 2009, they almost never named Grace. Now this year, they didn't classify 95L, but they can name a disorganized mess in the GOM, which HAD a circulation, with dying convection. Not good judgement at all in my opinion.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
I love how this blog has became a Kiddie site and these Kiddie's correcting what they think every bloggers post....UNBELIEVABLE! JUST THE FACTS!
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1545. cg2916
You know what, next time I poof someone, it'll be in another language. How about Dutch?

Flikker
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1542. cg2916
Quoting sailingallover:


Subtropical feature forming.
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Quoting calder:
Also, is there anyone that agrees with me that the NHC have done a great job in the last few weeks with systems that have been extremely unpredictable. I think they've shown considerable levels of both restraint and affirmitave action.


I would disagree in that they were wrong on the July 5 18Z TWO when they lowered 95L to "near 0%". They know that rapid organization/dissipation occurs and there is no skill in forecasting it. Never discount a potential system untill it has dissipated.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.