Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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1640. 7544
ok we need 97l now to calm the blog down lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Quoting sarahjola:
seems there is more time spent on bickering than weather. i have been asking about the spin by the Yucatan, and off the southeast coast of Florida and the convection i see in the south Caribbean, and no one has answered that, but plenty of space on here spent on bickering. its a shame what this site has become over the last year. people used to be happy to give opinions on here and now it seems people don't want to give opinion anymore cuz they will have to argue about it.:(


It is too bad more people are complaining and not focusing on the fact that regardless of what TD 2 is, it is still causing flooding problems; you would think that would be the focus, but again egos get in the way

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
I have officially turned into a very NOVICE meteorology junkie over the last month. Now I acnnot resist. Trying to get my inventory of informative web sites together so i can start learning the jargon and the meaning of the terms. Im a pretty quick learner, so bear with me an my apologies up front for any really stupid appearing questions!!
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1637. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


And some Valium. LOL!


Some need some Aderol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30562
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why would it be meant in an bad way? It was just a general statement.


Dude, I'm saying you didn't do it as a slap in his face...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Anyways who cares how old I am. Well with the exception of you of course.


Don't pay any attention to Tampa. He's just very egotistical and he believes he is never wrong. Plus, I have him on ignore from the last time he went off on you, so don't quote him. :-)
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Quoting TampaSpin:



THank you Mr. 13yo.....dang i am not smarter than a 5th grader....there you go i said it....everyone have fun in KIDDIE LAND!
So you didn't "poof" me, eh?
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11:00 AM National Hurricane Center Advisory
-GRAPHICS UPDATE
Tropical Depression Two

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seems there is more time spent on bickering than weather. i have been asking about the spin by the Yucatan, and off the southeast coast of Florida and the convection i see in the south Caribbean, and no one has answered that, but plenty of space on here spent on bickering. its a shame what this site has become over the last year. people used to be happy to give opinions on here and now it seems people don't want to give opinion anymore cuz they will have to argue about it.:(
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http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/sst_basin/gl_sst.gif
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Maybe the reason that I "challenge" (although "challenge" isn't the proper word) you every time is because you are incorrect.



THank you Mr. 13yo.....dang i am not smarter than a 5th grader....there you go i said it....everyone have fun in KIDDIE LAND!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Indeed. I would expect the NHC to circle it yellow at 2PM although I doubt it will develop in the next 48 hours.


SSTs in that area appear to be conducive for tropical instead of subtropical development.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting Floodman:


I'm pretty convinced that half or better of the trolls here are kids, but this one has a little knowledge about him and he's rarely unpleasant to deal with...I don't think his post of the Depression/TS requirements was meant as a jab at you but more of a general informational thing, at least that's how I read it (he didn't add much to it, so intent may be hard to discern)...
Why would it be meant in an bad way? It was just a general statement.
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Quoting TampaTom:


Pat -

If that graphic doesn't slap people awake and get them to realize we are still only in act 1 for the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010, nothing will...


It's been posted numerous times so far this season and doesn't seem to have the intended effect...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I am the only one speaking up....it seems....would you like me to start posting emails from the many bloggers feeling exactly the same way.......don't worry i would never do that.......but, trust me the many emails i have received.....more than 12 lets put it that way......I'm ok! When your post gets challegned every time by a 13yo...then something is really wrong.....read back at every post!
Anyways who cares how old I am. Well with the exception of you of course.
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we could really use a Wunderground forum... to have a bunch of threads going instead of one big mass of comments on a blog would be great
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I am the only one speaking up....it seems....would you like me to start posting emails from the many bloggers feeling exactly the same way.......don't worry i would never do that.......but, trust me the many emails i have received.....more than 12 lets put it that way......I'm ok! When your post gets challegned every time by a 13yo...then something is really wrong.....read back at every post!


I'm pretty convinced that half or better of the trolls here are kids, but this one has a little knowledge about him and he's rarely unpleasant to deal with...I don't think his post of the Depression/TS requirements was meant as a jab at you but more of a general informational thing, at least that's how I read it (he didn't add much to it, so intent may be hard to discern)...
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Quoting btwntx08:

not really just 2 hrs ahead of schedule
Landfall last night was expected to be at 8PM EDT. So it is actually about 9 hours ahead of schedule.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Welcome, If you want to ask Question's direct them to Levi, StormW, Weather456, maybe a few others.

Thanks for the advice Aussie.You forgot to mention MH09.
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Quoting SunriseSteeda:

off topic, but Floodman, hope your continued recovery is successful. few that have not had spine issues or procedures can truly empathize. I had ALIF 3 yrs ago (after 7 other procedures) and still struggle with it today, but yesterday I climbed an un-restored, rural stretch of the Great Wall of China as my first real test and it was successful ;)



Congrats on your success. I also have a lower back injury that can leave me almost feeling paralytic.
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1614. Patrap
Quoting TampaTom:


Pat -

If that graphic doesn't slap people awake and get them to realize we are still only in act 1 for the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010, nothing will...


A reality slap is always good for me and the masses.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
1613. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


IMO they should not have cancelled yesterday afternoon's mission. I believe they would have found a TD at that time, based on the ASCAT pass in the same approximate timeframe.


imo, that sounds like the truth.
Later.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 143 Comments: 16729
I'll bring my 6 year old cousin to the blog to blog on here at this rate. Don't worry she was the Vocab and writing ability of an 8 year old.
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Tropics look quite with the exception of a possible CV threat in the next 10 days. ECMWF has pretty much dropped it, but the 12z will be interesting.
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1609. Patrap
My Bonnie Lies over the Name List,
My Bonnie is not in the seas,

That Invest was Upgraded way to Soon,to TD..

So its no Bonnie today for you..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
Quoting Patrap:
..yada,yada,yada...



Pat -

If that graphic doesn't slap people awake and get them to realize we are still only in act 1 for the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010, nothing will...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I wonder why the NHC has not put a circle yet on the area off the Carolinas

that ULL has worked its way to the surface now
Indeed. I would expect the NHC to circle it yellow at 2PM although I doubt it will develop in the next 48 hours.
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1606. 7544
guess it was moving faster than they thought lol
no bonnie today
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
1605. Patrap
Anytime putintang3, sharing is what we do here.

Most of us that iz.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I usually don't go on the offensive against a NHC call, I didn't for 95L or TD2.. but I will admit the 90L in May 2009 might not have been fully though through. Even NWS outfits were calling 90L a tropical storm. 90L was a tropical storm, QuikSCAT (RIP) had shown a well defined COC with winds over 40 mph. It also sustained convection for over 6 hours (something that 95L didn't btw, it was attached to a front) I was shocked that 90L wasn't called an unnamed TS.






(ps got these from stormchaser and weather456)


yea that is 1 system I think that should have gotten a TD or TS classification
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
1603. Patrap
..yada,yada,yada...

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
Quoting tomas5tex:
000
WTNT62 KNHC 081512
TCUAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1015 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 97.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG



"And thats the way the cookie crumbles" CASE CLOSED!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
New blogger here. I'm only 11
so don't insult me if I ask something dumb.

Welcome, If you want to ask Question's direct them to Levi, StormW, Weather456, maybe a few others.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you for your replies. I do not usually get an answer from anyone. I dont really know any of the scientific jargon. I just like to watch the forming of a storm. I also like to read all the difference of oppinions here. I have learned many things in the last few years from this blog. StormW and Patrap have been very informative, among a few others. Thank you all.
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1599. 7544
landfall next
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
Quoting SunriseSteeda:

off topic, but Floodman, hope your continued recovery is successful. few that have not had spine issues or procedures can truly empathize. I had ALIF 3 yrs ago (after 7 other procedures) and still struggle with it today, but yesterday I climbed an un-restored, rural stretch of the Great Wall of China as my first real test and it was successful ;)




Congratulations! The key to staying on top of it, even after a successful surgery, is to stay active...it's easy to just sit and be comfortable, but that only makes matters worse

Keep up the hard work (I know it's hard work...trust me)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
Honestly, they won't classify 90L in May of 2009, 92L (which had an eye) of June of 2009, they almost never named Grace. Now this year, they didn't classify 95L, but they can name a disorganized mess in the GOM, which HAD a circulation, with dying convection. Not good judgement at all in my opinion.


I usually don't go on the offensive against a NHC call, I didn't for 95L or TD2.. but I will admit the 90L in May 2009 might not have been fully thought through. Even NWS outfits were calling 90L a tropical storm. 90L was a tropical storm, QuikSCAT (RIP) had shown a well defined COC with winds over 40 mph. It also sustained convection for over 6 hours (something that 95L didn't btw, it was attached to a front) I was shocked that 90L wasn't called an unnamed TS.






(ps got these from stormchaser and weather456)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


You know, the way you're flailing around, one would think someone had struck a nerve or something...you OK?


I am the only one speaking up....it seems....would you like me to start posting emails from the many bloggers feeling exactly the same way.......don't worry i would never do that.......but, trust me the many emails i have received.....more than 12 lets put it that way......I'm ok! When your post gets challegned every time by a 13yo...then something is really wrong.....read back at every post!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1595. Patrap
Seems the NHC wants to dismiss this nightmare away FAST.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
000
WTNT62 KNHC 081512
TCUAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1015 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010

...DEPRESSION MAKES LANDFALL OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN END
OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TEXAS.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 97.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
I wonder why the NHC has not put a circle yet on the area off the Carolinas

that ULL has worked its way to the surface now

I don't know why either. It looks like it could develop into something subtropical.JMO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

off topic, but Floodman, hope your continued recovery is successful. few that have not had spine issues or procedures can truly empathize. I had ALIF 3 yrs ago (after 7 other procedures) and still struggle with it today, but yesterday I climbed an un-restored, rural stretch of the Great Wall of China as my first real test and it was successful ;)


Quoting Floodman:


I'm good...been busy getting ready for what may be a nasty storm season...the back is good; bothers me sometimes but nothing like before, thanks for asking
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.