Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting StormW:


Sounds reasonable. Should see much improved conditions near months end, and beginning of Aug.

I don't know about "improved" as I want the MDR quiet.
Looking at the 180 hour forecast the current pattern breaks down on at the end so figure around July 20-22 things fire up and I run and hide.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Starting in the fall

Brush up on your math...you gonna need it!
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1688. Patrap
Toot,toot..

U betcha


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storm- thanks for the info. very informative. will read your blog before i ask questions for now on:)thanks!
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1685. Patrap
"Hooper drives the Boat"..
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Coming from you Storm, that is high praise indeed. I appreciate your work here and am so thankful to have found this blog. I just wish some here would recognize the purpose it serves ;)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guys, the reason TD2 never became Bonnie was Alex left a cool wake that still hasn't recovered. Its still early in the season, and by late this month I am sure we'll see impressive storms as the TUTT lifts out and CV season gets started like the models are hinting at. TD2 simply did have enough time.. these CV storms will. With the amount of ridging going on, we could see strong CV hurricanes this year entering into the Caribbean or going just north of them going towards god knows what, hopefully out to sea.
Cool wake probably wasn't enough...thunderstorms still developed around TD#2, probably dry air entrained into the system, and multiple low-level centers than never really organized.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Starting classes lol?


Lol, Drak. You're such a smarta$$! LOL.
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1681. Drakoen
Quoting Jeff9641:


Key there FLIGHT LEVEL.


Didn't realize they went back up into the mid levels of the atmosphere
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
I feel bad for Matamoros, Mexico.TD TWO's moisture is probably affecting the city.The city was 80% flooded thanks to Alex.
(BTW, Alex caused $1.21 billion in damages, and
killed 51 people.)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Guys, the reason TD2 never became Bonnie was Alex left a cool wake that still hasn't recovered. Its still early in the season, and by late this month I am sure we'll see impressive storms as the TUTT lifts out and CV season gets started like the models are hinting at. TD2 simply did have enough time.. these CV storms will. With the amount of ridging going on, we could see strong CV hurricanes this year entering into the Caribbean or going just north of them going towards god knows what, hopefully out to sea.


sometimes it is easier to have a well developed storm, seems there is less bickering here
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
Quoting weatherman12345:
Where will the low off North Carolina go??



Upper low moving sw will pinwheel a surface feature to near the coast where it it will begin its transition to warm-core and then move north by northeast to make an intersting weekend in the heatwave areas and beyond.
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1676. Becca36
Quoting StormW:


Hey Becca, how are you today? Still in the Tampa area?

Hi Storm,I'm great, how about you? No, we came home early Tuesday. Back in Boca Raton.
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Quoting cctxshirl:
1639--yes, you're right, lots of bickering-you're also right about lots of flooding. Rain is coming down heavy and steadily in Corpus Christi and surrounding area. North Beach was already flooded with the high tides and rains from Alex. Yesterday, I noticed going home, the streets there were still flooded so I'm sure today it's really bad. Aransas County reported a funnel cloud but it didn't touch down from what I understand.


I'd expect to see more of that...funnel clouds that is (though the bickering in here is a pretty safe bet too)
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Guys, the reason TD2 never became Bonnie was Alex left a cool wake that still hasn't recovered. Its still early in the season, and by late this month I am sure we'll see impressive storms as the TUTT lifts out and CV season gets started like the models are hinting at. TD2 simply did have enough time.. these CV storms will. With the amount of ridging going on, we could see strong CV hurricanes this year entering into the Caribbean or going just north of them going towards god knows what, hopefully out to sea.
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Quoting Floodman:


You're on the wrong side of the globe to be of much help with that...LOL

More for me then. LOL.

I have a feeling this wont be like this for long


with this developing
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any one know how much rain se texas/ beaumont will get fron this? much more and we will need a boat!!!
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INVEST 90L 2009 chase cam video from Dauphin Island, AL. Notice all the trash in the road .What do you think should this one have been upgraded ?


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Quoting cctxshirl:
1639--yes, you're right, lots of bickering-you're also right about lots of flooding. Rain is coming down heavy and steadily in Corpus Christi and surrounding area. North Beach was already flooded with the high tides and rains from Alex. Yesterday, I noticed going home, the streets there were still flooded so I'm sure today it's really bad. Aransas County reported a funnel cloud but it didn't touch down from what I understand.


radar shows a band coming in from the ESE, so if it isn't raining now, it will be again soon
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
Thanks for the point to stormw's blog.. I will keep it active on another tab.. What a great info reference!!!
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Indeed. I would expect the NHC to circle it yellow at 2PM although I doubt it will develop in the next 48 hours.

AS OF 12Z...THE BROAD UPPER CLOSED LOW IS ABOUT DONE WITH ITS
SOUTHWEST TRACK AND IS NOW ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF WILMINGTON AND
WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL BE THE MAJOR INFLUENCE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID LEVEL
CAP ERODES BY 18Z AND ALONG WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF HEATING UNTIL
THEN ALLOWS FOR VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TODAY. SO WE SHALL SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THIS INITIAL
FORECAST PERIOD A HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR SKIES AND VISIBILITIES
EXCEPT IN A SHOWER THE VSBY WILL DROP TO MVFR. THREAT OF SHOWERS
ENDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN MAY PRODUCE
MVFR FOG TOWARDS MORNING.
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1664. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


Thought you were in college?


Starting in the fall
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
TD Two made landfall, but it may yet redevelop within the seas of the barrier islands.


????
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Quoting AussieStorm:

pppssssstttt... I have plenty of that.


You're on the wrong side of the globe to be of much help with that...LOL
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1639--yes, you're right, lots of bickering-you're also right about lots of flooding. Rain is coming down heavy and steadily in Corpus Christi and surrounding area. North Beach was already flooded with the high tides and rains from Alex. Yesterday, I noticed going home, the streets there were still flooded so I'm sure today it's really bad. Aransas County reported a funnel cloud but it didn't touch down from what I understand.
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Well done. You've called it correctly; in that TD2 couln't make it as a TS.

I disagree with the NHC classifying it a TD last night, but right before it made landfall, as it got out of Hurricane Alex's wake, it organized enough to me for this to be a decent looking TD, but nothing more. Again, I don't make assumptions anymore, I provide evidence with my forecasts, I had my reasons for downplaying this mess in the GOM.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
weather.com just opened up their new beta version.
pretty cool
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Quoting Drakoen:
Recon found some 40knot flight level winds off-sore Texas.


yea they just felt due to lack of organization that it didn't deserve to be named

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1656. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:


LMAO! Meant to ask you, what's your next step toward your degree? I know it must seem like forever having to take all those classes.


Starting classes lol?
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
1654. swlavp
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
I have officially turned into a very NOVICE meteorology junkie over the last month. Now I acnnot resist. Trying to get my inventory of informative web sites together so i can start learning the jargon and the meaning of the terms. Im a pretty quick learner, so bear with me an my apologies up front for any really stupid appearing questions!!
I have found a very good place to start would be on STORMW's blog...He lists and gives a description of all of the Anagrams and words used in tropical discussions...I find it is very helpful and a Great place for a novice like me to start to understand the meaning of everything.
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TD Two made landfall, but it may yet redevelop within the seas of the barrier islands.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Dude. Up until this point I had no idea you were that young. I figured you were a student at da U studying meteorology. You honestly sound more mature than many of the people I go to school with, and I'm a senior in college...
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1651. Drakoen
Recon found some 40knot flight level winds off-sore Texas.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30563
Spoke with my husband this morning, he is on a derreck barge near South Padre Island. Seas pretty rough out there. The barge is on tow now, moving towards Galveston bay. Due to the speed of the storms movement, the marine advisory came a little late. Being that my husband is out there is the biggest reason I watch this blog.
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I just want to learn!!!!!!!!
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Quoting reedzone:


"And thats the way the cookie crumbles" CASE CLOSED!


Well done. You've called it correctly; in that TD2 couln't make it as a TS.
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Quoting StormW:


And some Valium. LOL!

pppssssstttt... I have plenty of that.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Don't pay any attention to Tampa. He's just very egotistical and he believes he is never wrong. Plus, I have him on ignore from the last time he went off on you, so don't quote him. :-)
Consider him poofed. Enough of this stuff now, please.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Good point Hurricanes101. One would think a weather blog would be for the benefit of early warning for those in danger from weather related events and not a testosterone fueled peeing contest...but that's just me.
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Quoting Floodman:


Dude, I'm saying you didn't do it as a slap in his face...
I didn't. Lol!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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