Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting tropicfreak:


TD???
Both those numbers are TD strength so if the NHC pleases to renumber 96L they can do it at any time.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


It's there but is it really enough? Like you say it's not taking advantage. Why? It's too big, that's why. Dry air doesn't appear to be the problem, and the circulation is well-defined. The system even now looks to be vertically stacked so there are no longer competing centers. What else is there? The answer lies in the type of development this system is. It requires more energy than the water may be capable of dishing out right now. It may yet recover but for the time being there is not enough heat energy coming from the ocean to feed 96L.


What else is there is the fact that we don't completely understand tropical cyclogenesis. There isn't always going to be an answer.
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Quoting Baltimorebird:
96L looks to make it to Cat 1 before it all over


not enough time.......
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB at 2.0; SAB at 1.5.

AL, 96, 201007072345, TAFB, MN, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 2.0 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. BANDING IN CLOSE T

AL, 96, 201007072345, SAB, MT, VI, 3, 1515 /////, , , , LLCC, T, DT=1.5 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.5 FTBO PT PA=40 NMI


Well, easily could be upgraded.
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Sounds like the whole South Side gang is here
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB at 2.0; SAB at 1.5.

AL, 96, 201007072345, TAFB, MN, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 2.0 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. BANDING IN CLOSE T

AL, 96, 201007072345, SAB, MT, VI, 3, 1515 /////, , , , LLCC, T, DT=1.5 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.5 FTBO PT PA=40 NMI


TD???
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Yeah

Im actually quite surprised by 96L. I haven't been here all day...didn't expect to see it at 80%.
The 80% bit surprised a lot of us actually.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting watchingnva:
Time: 01:22:00Z
Coordinates: 23.9N 93.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 639.1 mb (~ 18.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,876 meters (~ 12,717 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.0 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 111° at 11 knots (From the ESE at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 7.4°C (~ 45.3°F)
Dew Pt: 5.6°C (~ 42.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots* (~ 27.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr* (~ 0.20 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

looks like 1002mb....is the lowest they found in there...


less than an hour ago they found lower....

Time: 00:31:30Z
Coordinates: 24.6333N 94.5167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 639.8 mb (~ 18.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,873 meters (~ 12,707 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1000.6 mb (~ 29.55 inHg)
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Quoting Grothar:
Testing



96L is in the open atlantic??? LOL
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Quoting Headindaclouds:


Me too... VMFP-3 at El Toro LOL


I did school at El Toro MAG-13


Westminster Blvd.."reow"

Oh, and the Rip Van Winkle Hotel in Anaheim had very bad pillows.

Wink,wink

LOL


Was that a F-4 Squadron ?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128749
Quoting extreme236:


I'm still waiting for it myself actually. I will post as soon as it comes out.
TAFB at 2.0; SAB at 1.5.

AL, 96, 201007072345, TAFB, MN, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 2.0 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. BANDING IN CLOSE T

AL, 96, 201007072345, SAB, MT, VI, 3, 1515 /////, , , , LLCC, T, DT=1.5 BO CBND MET=1.0 PT=1.5 FTBO PT PA=40 NMI
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Drakoen:


That graphic shows enough warmth for the system to intensify. The system may not being taking advantage of it but it is there.


Technically warm enough water is there but is it really enough? Like you say it's not taking advantage. Why? It's too big, that's why. Dry air doesn't appear to be the problem, and the circulation is well-defined. The system even now looks to be vertically stacked so there are no longer competing centers. What else is there? The answer lies in the type of development this system is. It requires more energy than the water may be capable of dishing out right now. It may yet recover but for the time being there is not enough heat energy coming from the ocean to feed 96L.
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127. 7544
how long has it been scince so fla was hit with a cat 4 storm till this date tia
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Quoting TXnovice:
Thank you, I'm in Pearland too.


League City here
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
People have to understand that architecture in different parts of the country play a part in dealing with unusual weather conditions. Most buildings in the northeast were built to deal with severe winters, not treacherous summers.

If you live in an interior apartment, how is an AC unit going to help if you don't have a window.


Are you serious?? ... There are many stand alone models that are available and affordable that work without a window..

Also, I lived in the N.E. for several years and while many of the structures are very old, they ALL had A/C..

Bottom line, its summer time in the U.S. its going to get hot...

Would you drive/ride in an automobile without wearing your seatblet?? NO..

Would you consider not boarding up your windows in the face of a major hurricane?? NO

Would you jump out of an airplane with no parachute?? NO

Would you go scuba diving without any O2? NO

Then why would anyone (in the contental U.S.) think it would simply be OKAY to subject themsleves to triple digit heat with no A/C??

I dont know about any of you.. but if im in a situation to where I have to chose between high electric bill or my health (or that of those I love).. its a no brainer
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Quoting PtownBryan:


All of Houston. I live in Pearland so we are near eachother, be on the look out!


Live in Missouri City and drove home from The Woodlands today and it was flooded just like Friday was.
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Quoting Levi32:
It is still possible 96L could overcome the effects of the wake, especially if it makes landfall north of the border which could take it over some warmer coastal waters. We'll see if it takes advantage of diurnal max tonight.


also further north it makes landfall, may allow it stay over water a bit longer
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It has a very good structure for an invest, kinda reminds me of 92L...

Yeah

Im actually quite surprised by 96L. I haven't been here all day...didn't expect to see it at 80%.
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Quoting TXnovice:
Did they say which part of Houston? I'm on the south side and I missed the news tonight.


widespread. We are all under a flood watch or warning until 7:00 pm tomorrow.
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Testing

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It is still possible 96L could overcome the effects of the wake, especially if it makes landfall north of the border which could take it over some warmer coastal waters. We'll see if it takes advantage of diurnal max tonight.
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Looks like the Cape Verde season may start soon.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Poor convection, excellent structure.

The NHC could go either way on this one.



Exactly. It's clearly well-organized.d
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Poor convection, excellent structure.

The NHC could go either way on this one.

It has a very good structure for an invest, kinda reminds me of 92L...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


There's still a good bit of sub-28C SSTs left in there, and wakes left by major hurricanes are notorious for being worse for following storms than they look on the SST map. They leave a bigger mark on the environment than it appears sometimes.

The ULL over south Texas also continues to back away so I don't see dry air being too big of an issue here, so I am inclined to believe it is Alex's wake that is at fault here.



That graphic shows enough warmth for the system to intensify. The system may not being taking advantage of it but it is there.
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Quoting watchingnva:
Time: 01:22:00Z
Coordinates: 23.9N 93.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 639.1 mb (~ 18.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,876 meters (~ 12,717 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.0 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 111 at 11 knots (From the ESE at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 7.4C (~ 45.3F)
Dew Pt: 5.6C (~ 42.1F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots* (~ 27.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr* (~ 0.20 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

looks like 1002mb....is the lowest they found in there...


Evening watch, another day in the triple digits, luckily there is some relief on the way this weekend.
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Thank you, I'm in Pearland too.
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Quoted from last blog...

Quoting PtownBryan:


Cool. Yea, well, it sticks out there just asking for it! I remember back about 10 years ago there was a survey and it asked which state you thought had been hit by more tropical cyclones than any other. I picked Florida of course, but it was actually Texas! I think that changed since then, especially in the last decade, but I think Texas and Florida are close.


From the NHC FAQ page:

Subject: E19) How many direct hits by hurricanes of various categories have affected each state?
Contributed by Chris Landsea


This table, updated from Jarrell et al. (2001), shows the number of hurricanes affecting the United States and individual states, i.e., direct hits. The table shows that, on the average, close to seven hurricanes every four years (~1.75 per year) strike the United States, while about three major hurricanes cross the U.S. coast every five years (0.60 per year). Other noteworthy facts, updated from Jarrell et al. (2001), are:

Forty percent of all U.S. hurricanes hit Florida
Eighty-three percent of category 4 or higher hurricanes strikes have hit either Florida or Texas
Pennsylvania's only hurricane strike between 1851-2004 was in 1898 (from Blake et al. 2005).

Unable to post table, see link.

Viewing the table reveals that Florida has nearly twice as many hurricane strikes as Texas.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Poor convection, excellent structure.

The NHC could go either way on this one.

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Quoting txag91met:


Way too much emphasis...I have seen tropical cyclones develop with strong anticyclonic outflow with 78F water temps.


In a large, typhoon-like system such as this, you need a lot more than 26C, and often even more than the 27-28C this is over right now. This system developed from a big large-scale concentration of heat, and the heat coming from the ocean to sustain a large system like this must match the heat in the atmosphere, and when this came over the Yucatan, it lost a lot of the ocean support it had back on the other side.
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Quoting TXnovice:
Did they say which part of Houston? I'm on the south side and I missed the news tonight.


All of Houston. I live in Pearland so we are near eachother, be on the look out!
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Time: 01:22:00Z
Coordinates: 23.9N 93.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 639.1 mb (~ 18.87 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,876 meters (~ 12,717 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.0 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 111° at 11 knots (From the ESE at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 7.4°C (~ 45.3°F)
Dew Pt: 5.6°C (~ 42.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 14 knots (~ 16.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 24 knots* (~ 27.6 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr* (~ 0.20 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

looks like 1002mb....is the lowest they found in there...
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Sorry, it takes me a while to catch up after putting little ones to bed! I am caught up and will read any responses!
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Did they say which part of Houston? I'm on the south side and I missed the news tonight.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting TXnovice:
It looks to me that it is moving more NNW. Does that change the potential track and intensity? Is it just a temporary change or a true change in direction? I would appreciate your opinions. Back to lurking!


I saw it as well and mentioned it.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
I keep thinking of this band over the Yucatan coming around and slamming us later...



Houston expected to get another 5 inches tomorrow. I may need a boat!!
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Quoting Drakoen:
Too much emphasis is being put on what Alex did to the GOM waters. According to the SHIPS text the system is over 28.4C sea-surface temperatures which is plenty enough warmth for a tropical depression to get going. Invest and Tropical depressions don't need a deep pool of water to intensify.


There's still a good bit of sub-28C SSTs left in there, and wakes left by major hurricanes are notorious for being worse for following storms than they look on the SST map. They leave a bigger mark on the environment than it appears sometimes.

The ULL over south Texas also continues to back away so I don't see dry air being too big of an issue here, so I am inclined to believe it is Alex's wake that is at fault here.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hi Extreme..could you please post the link for the TAFB #'s? Thanks.


I'm still waiting for it myself actually. I will post as soon as it comes out.
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Quoting thelmores:
Hard to make a clear determination, but I believe the LLC will come ashore north of where Alex did....... looks like Brownsville to me!


I'm going with a landfall between Brownsville and Port Mansfield.
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97. IKE


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Quoting Drakoen:
Too much emphasis is being put on what Alex did to the GOM waters. According to the SHIPS text the system is over 28.4C sea-surface temperatures which is plenty enough warmth for a tropical depression to get going. Invest and Tropical depressions don't need a deep pool of water to intensify.


Way too much emphasis...I have seen tropical cyclones develop with strong anticyclonic outflow with 78F water temps. But this one looks like a TD at best at landfall...just a rain/flood maker.
Member Since: January 30, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 750
It looks to me that it is moving more NNW. Does that change the potential track and intensity? Is it just a temporary change or a true change in direction? I would appreciate your opinions. Back to lurking!
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Pretty much anyone that was affected by Alex needs to be on the lookout. We were so far from Alex here in Houston, yet around 5-15 inches of rain fell in parts of my county alone. I feel bad for the people of Mexico though because they are not as prepared as we are here in Texas. I pray they and everyone affected by 96L are all ok after 96L passes on through!


96L though is the exact opposite of Alex. This one is more small and compact, so the effects of this storm aren't going to be as widespread.
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Quoting extreme236:


SAB T number was 1.5. If TAFB's was also 1.5 that would be just enough to allow for classification if they so wish.


Hi Extreme..could you please post the link for the TAFB #'s? Thanks.
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Hard to make a clear determination, but I believe the LLC will come ashore north of where Alex did....... looks like Brownsville to me! maybe even north of Brownsville towards Chorpus Christie.

But it will be a weak TS at best...... lucky it does not have another day...... much like lucky for Alex.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.