Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 191 - 141

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

96L has great structure as of now, but is extremely ragged. If it doesn't blow up soon, it will be too late. TD right now? NO, no matter what the evidence shows, this is clearly not a TD yet, needs deeper convection.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Interior apartment means you don't have an exterior wall!


It doesn't take rocket science to figure that out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lived on Texas Coast my entire life..47 years old...Have "weathered" 10 Tropical Storms & Hurricanes. Two worst Celia and Ike
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


We don't know everything brings about certain humility and vulnerability. Bastardi-types don't know those things :(


Huh....didn't think brainstorming over an intriguing situation in tropical meteorology would be considered being prideful.

Obviously it is humbling....any Meteorologist who loves his job appreciates the complexity, scope, and certain unpredictability of what he's trying to forecast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TxMarc71:


Do you have a heater?? YES??.. case closed...

Again, there are numerous models that are affordable and designed to work with NO WINDOWS.. I have one in my garage (where are there are no windows)...
Interior apartment means you don't have an exterior wall!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
A system like 96L will need time to adjust to the new heat-budget. A fat person used to consuming 4000 calories a day to sustain his body will have side-effects if he suddenly gets cut-down to a 2000-calorie diet, even though a 2000-calorie diet is considered a "normal" input of energy to sustain a human body. It is the same with the energy available in the ocean relative to the size and magnitude of the tropical system that it's trying to feed.

Eventually the man will adjust to the 2000-calorie diet if his body is flexible enough to lose enough weight, but it takes time. 96L could still adjust but it needs time.
I know how 96L feels.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3.20" rain Houston, Texas Heights neighborhood today.7.95 " Friday July 2 Total indirectly from Alex and this disturbance is 14.47"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting alfabob:


What is the diurnal max? I'm lacking the weather terminology since I've studied more in quantum mechanics and numerical methods.


Diurnal max occurs over the ocean during the late night and early morning when the air temperature is at its coldest point of the day. The ocean is a better heat retainer and doesn't cool as much during the night, and thus the temperature difference between the ocean and the atmosphere is maximized. This increases instability, and in turn convection is more likely to fire up during this time over the tropical oceans than it is during the daytime when the sun has warmed the air temperature.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermancer:
96L looking ragged and weak on IR loops.
I can't see hurricane at landfall at this point...


neither do most of us

TD or TS at best
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7829
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
So living here near Galveston which experience snow once every 10 years, by your logic I need to go out and buy snow chains for my tires, a snow shovel, snow shoes, and build an expensive fire place in my home? Interior apartment means no windows!


Do you have a heater?? YES??.. case closed...

Again, there are numerous models that are affordable and designed to work with NO WINDOWS.. I have one in my garage (where are there are no windows)...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


And I'm proud of it, I dare say. Nothing wrong with throwing around ideas.....what better time to discuss possible explanations for this? I like that better than just accepting that we "don't know everything".


We don't know everything brings about certain humility and vulnerability. Bastardi-types don't know those things :(
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
Quoting alfabob:


What is the diurnal max? I'm lacking the weather terminology since I've studied more in quantum mechanics and numerical methods.


Google... spectacular search engine :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
just listened to nhc discussion. Looks like we will have TD2 for 11.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L looking ragged and weak on IR loops.
I can't see hurricane at landfall at this point...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thelmores:


Without having an exact fix on the LLC, not sure if you can say conclusively.......


From what I can tell(This is just what I'm seeing) 96L is taking a more northerly course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Have you guys seen the loops?? Its making a more northerly curve or jog!!


Without having an exact fix on the LLC, not sure if you can say conclusively.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I know I said last post but it's rude not to thank people.Thank you everyone.


so does this qualify as your second last post of the night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thelmores:


I have felt that the dry air and shear were bigger inhibitors than the wake of Alex.

And you ask why is it not taking advantage? My answer to that is watch the next 12 hours, and you will get your answer. I expect "significant" convection tonight near the center. The Dry air and shear have abated, and now there is nothing stopping 96l except coastline!


As the upper level low has been moving westward Alex has been able to use energy to moisten up the atmosphere westward could be a reason why there is an absence of convection.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


You always do. It's your inner Bastardi...

LOL
LOL!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


You always do. It's your inner Bastardi...

LOL


And I'm proud of it, I dare say. Nothing wrong with throwing around ideas.....what better time to discuss possible explanations for this? I like that better than just accepting that we "don't know everything".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TxMarc71:
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
People have to understand that architecture in different parts of the country play a part in dealing with unusual weather conditions. Most buildings in the northeast were built to deal with severe winters, not treacherous summers.

If you live in an interior apartment, how is an AC unit going to help if you don't have a window.


Are you serious?? ... There are many stand alone models that are available and affordable that work without a window..

Also, I lived in the N.E. for several years and while many of the structures are very old, they ALL had A/C..

Bottom line, its summer time in the U.S. its going to get hot...

Would you drive/ride in an automobile without wearing your seatblet?? NO..

Would you consider not boarding up your windows in the face of a major hurricane?? NO

Would you jump out of an airplane with no parachute?? NO

Would you go scuba diving without any O2? NO

Then why would anyone (in the contental U.S.) think it would simply be OKAY to subject themsleves to triple digit heat with no A/C??

I dont know about any of you.. but if im in a situation to where I have to chose between high electric bill or my health (or that of those I love).. its a no brainer
So living here near Galveston which experience snow once every 10 years, by your logic I need to go out and buy snow chains for my tires, a snow shovel, snow shoes, and build an expensive fire place in my home? Interior apartment means no windows!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PtownBryan:


Welcome! We have already had .50-2 inches of rain in Pearland today.


Thanks. We had 5.8 inches last Thursday and 2.70 last Friday. I wonder what the end of this week will bring!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Semper Fi Womanmarine!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


No, honest, that is 96L. I may be old, but I know where the Gulf is, even though most of it is under water.


I was kidding, because what I saw was no land outlines, just plain blue with 96L in the middle.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A system like 96L will need time to adjust to the new heat-budget. A larger person used to consuming 4000 calories a day to sustain his body will have side-effects if he suddenly gets cut-down to a 2000-calorie diet, even though a 2000-calorie diet is considered a "normal" input of energy to sustain a human body. It is the same with the energy available in the ocean relative to the size and magnitude of the tropical system that it's trying to feed.

Eventually the man will adjust to the 2000-calorie diet if his body is flexible enough to lose enough weight, but it takes time. 96L could still adjust but it needs time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
216 hours.
ECMWF also shows it:

ECMWF 12z 216 hours

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXnovice:
Thank you, I'm in Pearland too.


Welcome! We have already had .50-2 inches of rain in Pearland today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Technically warm enough water is there but is it really enough? Like you say it's not taking advantage. Why? It's too big, that's why. Dry air doesn't appear to be the problem, and the circulation is well-defined. The system even now looks to be vertically stacked so there are no longer competing centers. What else is there? The answer lies in the type of development this system is. It requires more energy than the water may be capable of dishing out right now. It may yet recover but for the time being there is not enough heat energy coming from the ocean to feed 96L.


I have felt that the dry air and shear were bigger inhibitors than the wake of Alex.

And you ask why is it not taking advantage? My answer to that is watch the next 12 hours, and you will get your answer. I expect "significant" convection tonight near the center. The Dry air and shear have abated, and now there is nothing stopping 96l except coastline!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, I take a few days off from the blog and look what happens. We may get Bonnie soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Okay last post of the day.When is that?.
216 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Well, I think there is one here.


You always do. It's your inner Bastardi...

LOL
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30575
Quoting Grothar:


No, honest, that is 96L. I may be old, but I know where the Gulf is, even though most of it is under water.
...or oil.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 422brzyldy:
well, in the words of the late great SRV: "It's raining down in Texas" and we don't NEED anymore!!! So TC, TD, TS or the big H - go away!


Good luck with that.... we have at least two more days of this...with the worst of it yet to come
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Okay last post of the day.When is that?.
soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


96L is in the open atlantic??? LOL


No, honest, that is 96L. I may be old, but I know where the Gulf is, even though most of it is under water.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


I did school at El Toro MAG-13


Westminster Blvd.."reow"

Oh, and the Rip Van Winkle Hotel in Anaheim had very bad pillows.

Wink,wink

LOL


I was a 3533 at Yuma, MWSS 371, "swinging with the wing"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well, in the words of the late great SRV: "It's raining down in Texas" and we don't NEED anymore!!! So TC, TD, TS or the big H - go away!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


I did school at El Toro MAG-13


Westminster Blvd.."reow"

Oh, and the Rip Van Winkle Hotel in Anaheim had very bad pillows.

Wink,wink

LOL


Was that a F-4 Squadron ?


Yeah it was an RF-4B Recon squadron. We deployed to Japan and flew off of the Midway which is now a museum in San Diego LOL. And you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thelmores:


not enough time.......


Have you guys seen the loops?? Its making a more northerly curve or jog!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


What else is there is the fact that we don't completely understand tropical cyclogenesis. There isn't always going to be an answer.


Well, I think there is one here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No color enhancement really gives you an idea of the structure 96L has...




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:



Technically warm enough water is there but is it really enough? Like you say it's not taking advantage. Why? It's too big, that's why. Dry air doesn't appear to be the problem, and the circulation is well-defined. The system even now looks to be vertically stacked so there are no longer competing centers. What else is there? The answer lies in the type of development this system is. It requires more energy than the water may be capable of dishing out right now. It may yet recover but for the time being there is not enough heat energy coming from the ocean to feed 96L.



The kind of storms that the 2010 season is capable of spawning will generally require more heat from the ocean to sustain themselves than we may be used to, because they get spawned from more heat than usual. If you form a typhoon-like system over the Caribbean with 2C above normal waters, and then suddenly drop it off to 1C below normal waters in the western gulf, the kind of system that was running on the large heat budget before will not be able to sustain itself on the new, cut-down heat budget in the gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mikatnight:
Quoted from last blog...



From the NHC FAQ page:

Subject: E19) How many direct hits by hurricanes of various categories have affected each state?
Contributed by Chris Landsea


This table, updated from Jarrell et al. (2001), shows the number of hurricanes affecting the United States and individual states, i.e., direct hits. The table shows that, on the average, close to seven hurricanes every four years (~1.75 per year) strike the United States, while about three major hurricanes cross the U.S. coast every five years (0.60 per year). Other noteworthy facts, updated from Jarrell et al. (2001), are:

Forty percent of all U.S. hurricanes hit Florida
Eighty-three percent of category 4 or higher hurricanes strikes have hit either Florida or Texas
Pennsylvania's only hurricane strike between 1851-2004 was in 1898 (from Blake et al. 2005).

Unable to post table, see link.

Viewing the table reveals that Florida has nearly twice as many hurricane strikes as Texas.
Quoting mikatnight:
Quoted from last blog...



From the NHC FAQ page:

Subject: E19) How many direct hits by hurricanes of various categories have affected each state?
Contributed by Chris Landsea


This table, updated from Jarrell et al. (2001), shows the number of hurricanes affecting the United States and individual states, i.e., direct hits. The table shows that, on the average, close to seven hurricanes every four years (~1.75 per year) strike the United States, while about three major hurricanes cross the U.S. coast every five years (0.60 per year). Other noteworthy facts, updated from Jarrell et al. (2001), are:

Forty percent of all U.S. hurricanes hit Florida
Eighty-three percent of category 4 or higher hurricanes strikes have hit either Florida or Texas
Pennsylvania's only hurricane strike between 1851-2004 was in 1898 (from Blake et al. 2005).

Unable to post table, see link.

Viewing the table reveals that Florida has nearly twice as many hurricane strikes as Texas.


Mik...thats hurricanes on that chart, not all tropical systems. It does not include td's or ts's. Like I said, I answered Florida for that survey back about 10 years ago, and it said I was wrong..to my surprise! Florida has been hit a lot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


TD???
Both those numbers are TD strength so if the NHC pleases to renumber 96L they can do it at any time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 191 - 141

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
52 °F
Overcast