Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting stillwaiting:
wow,tarballs reported along Floridas east coastline in cocoa beach area!!!
That's gotta' be from some other cause besides DWH. They would have shown up in the Keys and further south on the mainland first if it was from DWH. I believe the forecast calls for a high likelihood along the Gulfstream in SEFL, but once the worst of it flows down the Sebastian Inlet the majority of the rest should go away from the coast, until the outer banks.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Still though.


Still what?? I AGREE WITH YOU! However, it was the topic of the last blog post and a discussion that has been going for the better of the afternoon. Well befroe you got here...so pleasedont come one here and play yet blog cop with lil man syndrome about something you just caught the tail end of..
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good evening everyone..just checking in and see that 96L wants a name and that the tarballs are running rampant!..UGH!
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Quoting Hhunter:
in the fetal position in texas rocking back in forth muttering mommy mommy mommy make them go away..


No more wire hangers!!!!!
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Quoting Hhunter:
in the fetal position in texas rocking back in forth muttering mommy mommy mommy make them go away..
The tar balls or the storms?
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Quoting tropicfreak:


It doesn't take rocket science to figure that out.
Quoting TxMarc71:


RUNNING OUT OF ARGUMENT ARE WE?? LOL

As long as the interior space has an entrance (i.e front door) there are models that are desgined for that....

if you do not what you are talking about its often better to not say anything at all
LOL, you got me cornered! You obviously don't know what it's like to live on a fixed income. Sometimes people have to decide between keeping cool or putting food on the table. The AC's you talk about might be cheap but not the bill. Also, I'm willing to bet if everyone in the northeast followed your advice and suddenly purchased an AC that the local power companies electrical grids couldn't handle it. Then you would have blackout, meaning no AC or lights, but I am making an assumption on this. Maybe someone who lives in on of these northeastern states can enlighten the both of us. Hey, post# 1595, I couldn't find the product you were referring to, but I did like the 2 seater hovercraft.
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Quoting thelmores:


Well, I have already stated that I am not disagreeing with you.....

And if I get any calmer, I will be passed out..... in fact, I believe it is getting about my bed time! LOL


I know sorry about this.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting extreme236:
I guess we'll see how accurate the last part was within the hour.





he is 0 for 2 so far lol

looks organized
red on the 8pm TWO
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
233. IKE
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Bonnie looks formed already. The signature clouds are there along with the moisture and heat. Did anyone notice the very latest infrared? Look at the blow up of convection! We have a storm.


Where?

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Quoting USSINS:


Levi, much respect. Very smart and helpful. But really wish you'd ease off the monsoon, typhoon bit. These storms aren't occurring west of the International Date line. It was fine for a bit with Alex especially since it was such a large system, especially for June.

Again, not hateful cursory, promise. Just constructive criticism. I do enjoy your posts, insightful and helpful. Thanks.


Well, it's true though isn't it. A lot of large storms that don't form from tropical waves or pre-existing disturbances in the Caribbean often evolve from much the same process as a monsoonal depression in the Indian Ocean or Western Pacific. It's not a far-fetched idea. StormW supports this as well.

And yes I know....NHC thinks it's a tropical wave.
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On the reasons for not deepening.... I think we have lots of room for speculation, so long as everyone acknowledges that what are being postulated are hypotheses for further study / analysis of data rather than theory or, God forbid, dogma....

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Quoting TXnovice:
tar balls reported in Galveston, Tx as well


these are verified as DWH
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Quoting Levi32:


Lol. Challenging the weather and demanding answers is prideful? That's news to me. I think most forecasters most certainly do like brainstorming for answers a lot better than just sitting down in submission and saying "we don't know everything". Honestly....how would we further our knowledge with such an attitude? At some point of course we must recognize the limited extent of our knowledge and from that comes humility, but what better reason to continue striving to increase our understanding of the weather even more?


Not submissive at all. Just another answer to the puzzle.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
Quoting Patrap:




Reminds me soo much of Erin in 2007. Which is why I am keeping my crow in the fridge for the morning. Erin was in the same position, then suddenly formed near the coastline.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
Quoting alfabob:


Ah stopped using google and went over to a search engine which doesn't track/record info about the users. And of course the other search engine couldn't even define the word. Starting to lean towards switching back to google and using a proxy.



Thanks for the info. I assumed there was some sort of effect like this but had no idea what it was called.

Here is a blog made by one of the Members here (that said, have not seen them for a long long time)

Hurricane forecasting tutorial
By quasigeostropic

Probably one of the best "Hurricane 101" sites I have see.
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I guess we'll see how accurate the last part was within the hour.

Quoting reedzone:
I'm out, I will check on 96L and the NON-TROPICAL Low when I get back, take it easy guys, nothing too organized, no red on the next TWO, no TD tonight... Look at reality.


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Quoting TxMarc71:


Was more about A/C's and heatwaves but I agree with you..


Still though.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting tropicfreak:


Ok lets just handle this disagreement as calmly as possible.


Well, I have already stated that I am not disagreeing with you.....

And if I get any calmer, I will be passed out..... in fact, I believe it is getting about my bed time! LOL
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Quoting stillwaiting:
wow,tarballs reported along Floridas east coastline in cocoa beach area!!!


they haven't confirmed if they're DWH or not...they had a shrimp boat go down with a lotta fuel about a month ago out that way.
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in the fetal position in texas rocking back in forth muttering mommy mommy mommy make them go away..
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Awe! Welcome to the club! :)


Why thank you =)
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Quoting Levi32:


Diurnal max occurs over the ocean during the late night and early morning when the air temperature is at its coldest point of the day. The ocean is a better heat retainer and doesn't cool as much during the night, and thus the temperature difference between the ocean and the atmosphere is maximized. This increases instability, and in turn convection is more likely to fire up during this time over the tropical oceans than it is during the daytime when the sun has warmed the air temperature.
I think something must be missing from that explanation. Take a common scenario, at heat of day the air may be 90 and the water is 80 but early in morning the air may be 70 and the water still 80, both 10 degree differences.
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Quoting Levi32:


In a large, typhoon-like system such as this, you need a lot more than 26C, and often even more than the 27-28C this is over right now. This system developed from a big large-scale concentration of heat, and the heat coming from the ocean to sustain a large system like this must match the heat in the atmosphere, and when this came over the Yucatan, it lost a lot of the ocean support it had back on the other side.


Levi, much respect. Very smart and helpful. But really wish you'd ease off the monsoon, typhoon bit. These storms aren't occurring west of the International Date Line. It was fine for a bit with Alex especially since it was such a large system, especially for June.

Again, not hateful cursory, promise. Just constructive criticism. I do enjoy your posts, insightful and helpful. Thanks.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Why on earth are we arguing about apartments when a disturbance could develop into a TD at any time? Not to mention it will threaten the CONUS.


Was more about A/C's and heatwaves but I agree with you..
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Is recon still investigating 96L?
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tar balls reported in Galveston, Tx as well
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214. 7544
96l will be a td at 11pm tonight imo
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6811
Bonnie looks formed already. The signature clouds are there along with the moisture and heat. Did anyone notice the very latest infrared? Look at the blow up of convection! We have a storm.
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Quoting watchingnva:


yea, dude....105.8 in pg county over around hopewell here...rediculous...i hid inside almost all day...im waiting for sunday where we will get down to 90ish and lower humidity...im sorry, but 93-97 and higher humidity over the next 3 days aint gonna cut it...lol


We have a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sat from a disturbance off the east coast and a cold front.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting Hurricanes101:


how can a system have great structure and be ragged?

sounds contradictory to me


What I meant to say is that the little convection it has makes it look ragged, has great structure, but the convection on the storm is ragged, hard to explain I guess. Should of been 60%, not 80% cause it's a good 50/50 chance to me on if it blows up or not.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
209. beell
Still looks a little "sheary" on the east side. Despite what the maps and models depict.

GOES IR
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16591
Quoting Drakoen:


Nothing to do with the brainstorm part and everything to do with the: 'I like that better than just accepting that we "don't know everything"'


Lol. Challenging the weather and demanding answers is prideful? That's news to me. I think most forecasters most certainly do like brainstorming for answers a lot better than just sitting down in submission and saying "we don't know everything". Honestly....how would we further our knowledge with such an attitude? At some point of course we must recognize the limited extent of our knowledge and from that comes humility, but what better reason to continue striving to increase our understanding of the weather even more?
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Quoting Levi32:
It's ok though.....I really am crazy :) Everyone who knows me knows that.


Awe! Welcome to the club! :)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Evening watch, another day in the triple digits, luckily there is some relief on the way this weekend.


yea, dude....105.8 in pg county over around hopewell here...rediculous...i hid inside almost all day...im waiting for sunday where we will get down to 90ish and lower humidity...im sorry, but 93-97 and higher humidity over the next 3 days aint gonna cut it...lol
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Quoting TxMarc71:


RUNNING OUT OF ARGUMENT ARE WE?? LOL

As long as the interior space has an entrance (i.e front door) there are models that are desgined for that....

if you do not what you are talking about its often better to not say anything at all


Why on earth are we arguing about apartments when a disturbance could develop into a TD at any time? Not to mention it will threaten the CONUS.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting Drakoen:


We don't know everything brings about certain humility and vulnerability. Bastardi-types don't know those things :(


U betcha..

..to be wrong is to admit that one was true to what they saw and analyzed at that time,,and to be shown why and how you were wrong is called "Learning".



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting Levi32:


Huh....didn't think brainstorming over an intriguing situation in tropical meteorology would be considered being prideful.

Obviously it is humbling....any Meteorologist who loves his job appreciates the complexity, scope, and unpredictability of what he's trying to forecast.


Nothing to do with the brainstorm part and everything to do with the: 'I like that better than just accepting that we "don't know everything"'
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30489
Quoting Levi32:
It's ok though.....I really am crazy. Everyone who knows me knows that.
Yeah, crazy smart!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
wow,tarballs reported along Floridas east coastline in cocoa beach area!!!
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It's ok though.....I really am crazy :) Everyone who knows me knows that.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Interior apartment means you don't have an exterior wall!


RUNNING OUT OF ARGUMENT ARE WE?? LOL

As long as the interior space has an entrance (i.e front door) there are models that are desgined for that....

if you do not what you are talking about its often better to not say anything at all
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Quoting thelmores:


But this is my point my friend...... you can't tell! LOL

We do not have points to plot, no fix from the HH's, etc...... and just by "staring" at a satellite for the last couple hours can sometimes give a false impression. I am not disagreeing with you..... but I still believe that between Brownsville and Corpus Christi is very likely.........


Ok lets just handle this disagreement as calmly as possible.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6877
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Interior apartment means you don't have an exterior wall!


Dpn't need an external wall:

http://www.hammacher.com/Product/78484?source=FROOGLE

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OK, I have to give credit to the Bastardi line being funny... this from our always seriously focused and never-joking-about-weather Drak.... Good to see it!!!!

LOL

Just messin' witcha.... lol
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Quoting reedzone:
96L has great structure as of now, but is extremely ragged. If it doesn't blow up soon, it will be too late. TD right now? NO, no matter what the evidence shows, this is clearly not a TD yet, needs deeper convection.


how can a system have great structure and be ragged?

sounds contradictory to me
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
Quoting tropicfreak:


From what I can tell(This is just what I'm seeing) 96L is taking a more northerly course.


But this is my point my friend...... you can't tell! LOL

We do not have points to plot, no fix from the HH's, etc...... and just by "staring" at a satellite for the last couple hours can sometimes give a false impression. I am not disagreeing with you..... but I still believe that between Brownsville and Corpus Christi is very likely.........
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96L has great structure as of now, but is extremely ragged. If it doesn't blow up soon, it will be too late. TD right now? NO, no matter what the evidence shows, this is clearly not a TD yet, needs deeper convection.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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