Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting extreme236:


It isn't poorly defined, just convectively challenged.
Convectively challenged, that was a great answer,and so true..........
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
Quoting extreme236:


It isn't poorly defined, just convectively challenged.


And now we have the newest protected class in America... The poor Tropical low pressure depression storm.....
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Quoting stillwaiting:



maybe the nhc knows more than we do because they've been flying in TD2 all day long???,maybe they've been looking at it with their onboard radars and not using just obs,sats and models????NHC isn't perfect but they know what there doing!!


You must be crazy for thinking the NHC has any idea what their doing. Its not like they've been doing this for decades or anything.
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NHC has this one right too

just like 92L, just like Alex and just like 95L
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting Levi32:


It is, as far as I'm concerned. I mentioned it may become a TD before landfall as it pulls itself together later today and tonight.


Well awesome, then.

It'll be interesting to know the ending; you always learn alot more.
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I give up!!!

Everybody seems to be talking about something other than 96L. So I'm going to ask a simple question: Is this storm wrapping around it's center sooner than the smart money would have bet on?
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Its official...

...Second depression of the year forms in the Gulf of Mexico...

02L


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AL, 02, 2010070800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 938W, 30, 1005
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Quoting TxMarc71:


Im in NW Houston... its going to get real wet before all is said and done :)
Yeah, I'm glad I mowed my grass on Sunday, although it needs again already. Have a good night.
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Quoting extreme236:


How about you wait until you read the discussion before you go insulting the NHC's reasoning on this?



maybe the nhc knows more than we do because they've have info from the hunters that have been flying in TD2 all day long???,maybe they've been looking at it with their onboard radars and not using just obs,sats and models????NHC isn't perfect but they know what there doing!!
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There is little convection, if this doesn't blow up tonight, I'm gonna laugh..
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
328. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Don't they have Recon in there to verify this?


They were and verified a 27.6mph wind. My blow dryer blows out air faster then this naked swirl is blowing.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Ahhh what the heck, i'll roll with their classification for now... Funny, I always complain if the nhc doesn't classify something, and now im doing the exact opposite.
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I guess a Tropical Depression "Poof" watch will be posted next from Tampico to Cameron..

LMAO
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127673
Quoting BaltOCane:


I'm gonna ask if it's still valid before I watch, but we just got the new storm "classified" so....

But I'll still watch it!


It is, as far as I'm concerned. I mentioned it may become a TD before landfall as it pulls itself together later today and tonight.
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This is the fix file for 92L. Dvorak numbers at no point ever reached T2.0. 96L did get a 2.0 from TAFB. Link
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Lurking mode before people go ballistic.
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Quoting IKE:


LMAO!

Batten down the hatches Brownsville...those 27.6 mph winds and those sprinkles of rain can be serious.


HA-HA! Better throw the pool furniture into the pool! LOL
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Quoting reedzone:


Looks elongated and convection continues to decrease, a very bad excuse for a TD, this is still 96L as of 11 p.m. I'm confident on that one. If they cant classify 95L, why would they classify this one? They will wait till morning or afternoon after DMAX has passed.
Dunno, reed... I think they fully expect this to ramp up before landfall, and I don't think they are going to wait much longer because they want to be able to issue watches and warnings. Especially since this looks to be a rainmaker entrained over the path of a previous flood-producer, I think they will err on the side of caution [well, do watches and warnings rather than be conservative and wait].

But I could be wrong...
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320. xcool
IKE lmao
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Quoting reedzone:
Pathetic Depression! Just pathetic... NHC is really disappointing me this year.


Don't they have Recon in there to verify this?
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317. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Sorry just laughed my brains out. Looks like you were proven wrong 2 minutes later.

Expect the advisory at 11 PM EDT.


I don't care if I'm wrong 100 times.


Quoting Levi32:



Now everyone mentally picture Invest 92L, when StormW emailed them and they said they want to see 12-24 hours of sustained DEEP convection over the center.....double-standard? I don't know anymore. The fact that this is close to shore is likely why it is getting classified while 92L wasn't.


Exactly.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Im out.

Looks like its gonna get hostile in here soon...


no kidding lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
I guess the NHC just see's everything I do....

96L has everything it needs to be classifies, except convection. And I believe that is coming..... and I guess the NHC does too! LOL
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Quoting MrstormX:
What a poor job of operational meteorology, one of the most poorly defined TCs I have ever seen.


It isn't poorly defined, just convectively challenged.
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Quoting Levi32:


I did.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 7th


I'm gonna ask if it's still valid before I watch, but we just got the new storm "classified" so....

But I'll still watch it!

Also, it's about to get crazy in here with the 95l vs. TD2 ppl, so time to bounce/lurk
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Im out.

Looks like its gonna get hostile in here soon...
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Quoting reedzone:


I can't think of any invest that was ever classified with little to no convection. In my opinion, we need to wait till the morning or afternoon to call a TD/storm.

Quoting MrstormX:
What a poor job of operational meteorology, one of the most poorly defined TCs I have ever seen.

Quoting reedzone:
Pathetic Depression! Just pathetic... NHC is really disappointing me this year.
The trashing of the NHC begins...!
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here we go now the bashing of the NHC lol

going to get real thick in here now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Yes we do!

07/08/2010 02:25AM invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren
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What a poor job of operational meteorology, one of the most poorly defined TCs I have ever seen.
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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
TxMarc71, where are you located? Hitchcock here.


Im in NW Houston... its going to get real wet before all is said and done :)
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Quoting Halyn:
I know what it is like on a fixed income .. and my electric bills in Illinois run $150-$200/month with a/c .. and I follow every suggestion I can fund to cut electric use ! I know the choices, too, AllBoardedUp .. :)
Without getting into economics, we might all be on a fixed income before long!
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The blow up of convection is well east of the center over very warm waters. It will soon be drawn farther into the center. It's only been that far north of the Yucaan over the last two hours. Things are developing.
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Quoting reedzone:


I can't think of any invest that was ever classified with little to no convection. In my opinion, we need to wait till the morning or afternoon to call a TD/storm.
STS Andrea.
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Quoting reedzone:
Pathetic Depression! Just pathetic... NHC is really disappointing me this year.


How about you wait until you read the discussion before you go insulting the NHC's reasoning on this?
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The NHC needs to do away with these percentages of development with each TWO they issue. It is confusing to joe Public out there...The colored circles are enough just my opinion..........
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Quoting IKE:
What a joke....



Now everyone mentally picture Invest 92L, when StormW emailed them and they said they want to see 12-24 hours of sustained DEEP convection over the center.....double-standard? I don't know anymore. The fact that this is close to shore is likely why it is getting classified while 92L wasn't.
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299. IKE
Quoting stillwaiting:
reed in 20 minutes or so you'll proabably be scratching your head in astonishment,96L's a TD now....


LMAO!

Batten down the hatches Brownsville...those 27.6 mph winds and those sprinkles of rain can be serious.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I think that was the funniest thing that I have seen in a while. Two people say how there's NO WAY that it would get the upgrade, and seconds later we get this...

invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren
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Pathetic Depression! Just pathetic... NHC is really disappointing me this year.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting IKE:
What a joke....
Sorry just laughed my brains out. Looks like you were proven wrong 2 minutes later.

Expect the advisory at 11 PM EDT.
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No way this is a TD, I don't care if it has a good satellite presentation circulation wise, it is completely devoid of Tropical Convection. If this is a TD, then why wasn't 92L...
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Quoting IKE:
New frame...no way this gets updated at 10pm. Watch em do it and prove me wrong again.....



ROFL!!!!

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I'm not seeing [or expecting to see] much of a blowup cloudcoverwise before midnight. I think there is a more complex situation out there than might at first appear; I also think that despite the relative ease of passage over the Yucatan, 96L was never that organized to begin, meaning that it will likely need longer to pull everything together. So realistically, we may see some dramatic improvement overnight, but I don't see a rationale for steering that would keep it over water long enough to build beyond a moderate TS... if that.

Meanwhile, that low, with several surface troughs and shortwaves, is still hanging around out there off the coast of the Carolinas. While nothing much may come of it, it's keeping a weakness just along the East Coast, and it's sticking around.... seems to me that such a pattern would not be particularly conducive to continued TX/MX landfalls during the height of the season....

Just sayin'...
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Quoting reedzone:


I can't think of any invest that was ever classified with little to no convection. In my opinion, we need to wait till the morning or afternoon to call a TD/storm.


we have TD 2
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
reed in 20 minutes or so you'll proabably be scratching your head in astonishment,96L's a TD now....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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