Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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Quoting atmoaggie:

Suggested reading...


Just sayin'

LOL
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Hey Stormchaser81!
Thats way cool Bryan!
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1739. hydrus
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I still think T.D 2 has a chance to become bonnie in the 1p.m advisery.
Why?
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
I still think T.D 2 has a chance to become bonnie in the 1p.m advisery.


Its weakening, and it doesn't have a closed low. It will likely be downgraded at the 1 PM CDT advisory.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:

Was talking about 90L in 2009 not 95L and you [snip]

Suggested reading...


Just sayin'
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You aren't kidding. I live by the words "stay as active as you can tolerate". And it is certainly true that the more sedentary you are, the worse the suffering. After I return from Beijing (research at Tsinghua University), I start my first full-time semester as Phd student, but have also joined the softball intramural club and Shorinji Kempo. I take stairs instead of elevators, park a mile from campus instead of the parking garage etc. Hope your recovery and lifestyle is as positive ;)


Quoting Floodman:


Congratulations! The key to staying on top of it, even after a successful surgery, is to stay active...it's easy to just sit and be comfortable, but that only makes matters worse

Keep up the hard work (I know it's hard work...trust me)
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Looks like CV is having a parade of waves...
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1733. bakers
No models are predicting tropical formation into the third week of July, maybe this just might turn out to be an average year. alot of strong waves and small little swirls not taking root and sprouting wings. that will usually dictate the rest of the season.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Happy Birthday HurricaneKyle are you planing on going to University of South Alabama for your met degree ?


I don't think so, actually I have no idea what college I will go to but I do plan to send my application first to University of South Florida, its closest to home.
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Quoting Patrap:
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)


My LiveEarthRotation wallpaper on my phone looks like Africa is shooting a gun at us...what, 5 waves?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1728. NRAamy
1722. Floodman 9:02 AM PDT on July 08, 2010
Quoting bakers:
NO MODELS PREDICTING CYCLOGENESIS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. MAYBE JUST MAYBE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN AVG SEASON. ALOT OF STRONG WAVES SO FAR AND LITTLE WEAK SWIRLS, BUT NOT TAKING ROOT AND SPROUTING WINGS.


Are you yelling for a reason?



maybe it's STORMTOPS little brother?
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Go Noles!


You Know it. FSU forever.
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Quoting StormChaser81:
Me featured on a Official Website of the United States Government.


Restore The Gulf.gov
You go, dude!
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Happy Birthday HurricaneKyle are you planing on going to University of South Alabama for your met degree ?
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Quoting Floodman:


Are you yelling for a reason?

It is July...Typically the season doesn't get started until August.
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Quoting Whatever98:
Wow - here are some pics of the damage in Monterrey, Mexico from Alex. I had no idea major freeways and bridges were washed out. Incredible.

Link

The two big cities I know of that were flooded and damaged by Alex were Monterrey and Matamoros. That was one intense storm.Great Pics BTW.
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Quoting bakers:
NO MODELS PREDICTING CYCLOGENESIS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. MAYBE JUST MAYBE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN AVG SEASON. ALOT OF STRONG WAVES SO FAR AND LITTLE WEAK SWIRLS, BUT NOT TAKING ROOT AND SPROUTING WINGS.


Are you yelling for a reason?
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Why I didn't have bakers on ignore, I do not know. He's evidently stormtop. Only he talks in all caps like that.
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1720. calder
Quoting bakers:
NO MODELS PREDICTING CYCLOGENESIS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. MAYBE JUST MAYBE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN AVG SEASON. ALOT OF STRONG WAVES SO FAR AND LITTLE WEAK SWIRLS, BUT NOT TAKING ROOT AND SPROUTING WINGS.


It's July! Stop trying to stir the blog!
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
I'll probably go for a met degree of some sort in 2 years time. Today's my 16th birthday, so it won't be before to long until I get to college (I'm going into my Junior year next month)


Happy 16th Birthday!!
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1718. K8eCane
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Upper low moving sw will pinwheel a surface feature to near the coast where it it will begin its transition to warm-core and then move north by northeast to make an intersting weekend in the heatwave areas and beyond.


Im sittin here in wilmington nc with my popcorn and coke and aint nothin goin on except skies a little gray...thats about it. These things usually dont amount to much and if they do, nothing too bad.
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1717. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Morehead City, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting TampaSpin:
Don't get me wrong.....this will be a very dangerous systemt moving into South Texas and Mexico as the ground are already full from Alex. But, there is in no way should this be named Bonnie and i really don't think it deserves TD status looking at it...i was on last night when it got updated and i could not believe the upgrade last night....i was hoping visible would shed some light! Visible did and it does not deserve much other than a tremendous rain maker that will be deadly.


Worth reposting from some time ago..
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Wow - here are some pics of the damage in Monterrey, Mexico from Alex. I had no idea major freeways and bridges were washed out. Incredible.

Link
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1714. bakers
NO MODELS PREDICTING CYCLOGENESIS FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TEN DAYS. INTO THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY. MAYBE JUST MAYBE THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE AN AVG SEASON. ALOT OF STRONG WAVES SO FAR AND LITTLE WEAK SWIRLS, BUT NOT TAKING ROOT AND SPROUTING WINGS.
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11:00 AM National Hurricane Center Advisory
-GRAPHICS UPDATE
Tropical Depression Two

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1711. Patrap
Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting StormW:


95L.

Was talking about 90L in 2009 not 95L and you seem to have problems with people that don't kiss up to you

Not sure what you trying to say by that post but the NHC was glued for about 5 hours watching my live streaming and the NWS Mobile used 4 of my reports for LSR's and even issued a severe storm warning with the text the wind will strip bark off trees. Just cause it the storm happened in May doesn't mean that it shouldn't have been upgraded.
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I'll probably go for a met degree of some sort in 2 years time. Today's my 16th birthday, so it won't be before to long until I get to college (I'm going into my Junior year next month)
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1708. Patrap
A Stern turn?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Thanks for the point to stormw's blog.. I will keep it active on another tab.. What a great info reference!!!

Another blog to visit is Link
and Link.
Also check out this internet show, Link.
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1706. katroy
Quoting angiest:


It happens sometime after an invest is classed as a TC. Maybe the webmaster is on vacation. ;)


That would explain it! :D
It just confused me for a bit (I thought a whole new storm system developed overnight, but they seemed way too close together!).

Thanks again for responding.
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1705. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Mornin' ....stuck in meeting all AM. See 96L made TD#2, then made landfall...If ONLY they could all do this! Anything interesting on the horizon?
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I live about 60 miles due North of Houston.. IKE was my first experience. I am better prepared now.. Stored Fuel, water, etc. Ran the house for about 15 minutes on the generator yesterday so I'm ready...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't see a reason that the circulation would open considering the favorable conditions in and around the system.
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1698. Patrap
Gulf and Tropics (Updated every ~1/2 hour)


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
btw TWC have fixed up the Beta version on there site
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1696. swlavp
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Thanks for the point to stormw's blog.. I will keep it active on another tab.. What a great info reference!!!
You're welcome...It helps me a lot!!!
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1694. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Quoting StormW:


Sounds reasonable. Should see much improved conditions near months end, and beginning of Aug.

I don't know about "improved" as I want the MDR quiet.
Looking at the 180 hour forecast the current pattern breaks down on at the end so figure around July 20-22 things fire up and I run and hide.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.