Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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440. IKE
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Soon to be TD/Bonnie is already getting stronger. The clouds are wrapping better on infrared. It seems to have really organized well over the warmer waters.


My optometrist is taking new patients. Email me if you would like his #.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860

Quoting Levi32:



Now everyone mentally picture Invest 92L, when StormW emailed them and they said they want to see 12-24 hours of sustained DEEP convection over the center.....double-standard? I don't know anymore. The fact that this is close to shore is likely why it is getting classified while 92L wasn't.


Its amazing how people go back and forth from storm to storm. 92L has deep convection but not long enough so it doesn't get classified. 96L doesn't have deep convection but is closer to shore, so it gets classified. Yet 95L was close to shore AND had deep convection and didn't get classified.

Those of you who feel 96L deserves to be classified, you find a way to justify it. Those who felt 95L deserved it, found a different reason to justify it. They are what they are, regardless of what anyone of us THINKS they are.

In regards to the fact that 95L was frontal and 96L was tropical all the way; If they both reached 75mph sustained winds, wouldn't they BOTH have been hurricanes? You can't say one deserves it and the other doesn't just because it formed differently. On the Central Gulf Coast, we had every right to be concerned about 95L. If you live on the Texas coast, 96L is the immediate concern. And if you live in the Northeast, the heatwave is your concern. Why is it because someone's priorities are different, they're wrong?
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Quoting Levi32:


I'd like to see where that came from.

I don't have a problem either way, but they need to pick one. They absolutely demanded a lot of convection with 92L and numerous other systems.



Probably, but for the sake of the accuracy of season tallies in the history-books, should it really matter? Classify it if it deserves it, period.
I agree 100%.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Teddy, saying "it will never happen"... and then almost immediately it happens... that's irony. That's what I meant.

I also think pple need to relax about the NHC bashing. While we do have young whippersnapper Cangliosi in the saddle, I "most believe" [as pple would say out here] that the powers that be will not allow said young whippersnapper to call for a TD or a TS willynilly.... This means that while insulting the credibility of the NHC is always in poor taste, in this instance one can understand why some may be experiencing a sense of disbelief.

Let's give each other some slack and wait to see which side will be having crow for breakfast...
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
434. IKE
0245UTC IR...all convection from the COC is gone NHC.....oh my...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting reedzone:


Hurricane Alex's wake, cool TCHP.. That and it's time limit over waters decreases every hour. Apparently it is strengthening, I am very interested in what the discussion will say, to why they classified this mess.
Why they classified this mess? Because it meets the criteria for a tropical depression. Anyways, the NHC knows much more than me and you.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting ElConando:


Avila explained that there is no need for spurious convective activity for a depression. A Tropical storm is another matter.


I'd like to see where that came from.

I don't have a problem either way, but they need to pick one. They absolutely demanded a lot of convection with 92L and numerous other systems.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Probably due to the proximity to land. If it were let's say a tropical wave all the way by the Cape Verde's they'll wait for deep convection before classification.


Probably, but for the sake of the accuracy of season tallies in the history-books, should it really matter? Classify it if it deserves it, period.
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Quoting ElConando:
Still no magic L.


Are they reconsidering? I know I would. ROFL
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Soon to be TD/Bonnie is already getting stronger. The clouds are wrapping better on infrared. It seems to have really organized well over the warmer waters.
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The little puff that could...
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Still no magic L.
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Quoting tropicfreak:
Next question now that it's a TD. Where is this thing going?
Uh oh, this will get things stirring even more!
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The NHC bends the official rules when a cyclone is this close to landfall. Here, we discussed 92L being TD or not TD when it was 5000 miles away. This one is a little closer. It's also an overnight situation and we don't have the ability to forecast intensity that we have with track. We don't want people in the area waking up to a 50MPH storm at their door. If there's any chance of that happening, I have no problem with them playing it safe.


Thats a good point I never really considered.
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425. JLPR2
Quoting IKE:


Wow...I'm impressed.


get the crow ready and please lots of BBQ sauce on mine LOL! XD
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Quoting BahaHurican:
You wouldn't be the only one. Unfortunately, I think NHC is seeing some stuff [operationally] that we don't have access to. And to be fair, Reed, what r u seeing to PREVENT further strengthening from occurring? I'm thinking about 95L which only had a few hours free of the front it was attached to yet was able to power up some winds / convection. What's to prevent 96L from powering up?


Hurricane Alex's wake, cool TCHP.. That and it's time limit over waters decreases every hour. Apparently it is strengthening, I am very interested in what the discussion will say, to why they classified this mess.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting Levi32:


Does to me too except for the nagging lack of convection, which other times they seem to demand. Not so this time?
Probably due to the proximity to land. If it were let's say a tropical wave all the way by the Cape Verde's they'll wait for deep convection before classification.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


Does to me too except for the nagging lack of convection, which other times they seem to demand. Not so this time?


Avila explained that there is no need for spurious convective activity for a depression. A Tropical storm is another matter.
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TS watches and warnings will be prudent for 96L.


Expect to see them
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
Quoting tropicfreak:
Next question now that it's a TD. Where is this thing going?


It will make landfall pretty close to the TX/MX border.
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The NHC bends the official rules when a cyclone is this close to landfall. Here, we discussed 92L being TD or not TD when it was 5000 miles away. This one is a little closer. It's also an overnight situation and we don't have the ability to forecast intensity that we have with track. We don't want people in the area waking up to a 50MPH storm at their door. If there's any chance of that happening, I have no problem with them playing it safe.
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416. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tropical Depression Two



Wow...I'm impressed.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks good to me


Does to me too except for the nagging lack of convection, which other times they seem to demand. Not so this time?
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Next question now that it's a TD. Where is this thing going?
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Quoting Patrap:


It had a really Long Drain to the Street..and once I thought I saw a HH circling the Trailer in 07,

But they didnt drop any sondes that I saw


You probably just werent looking close enough. I'm sure they dropped something....
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They're going to most likely wait after 11 pm, like at 11:30 they'll issue TD2 because they have to get TS warnings out, discussions out.. ect.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks good to me
Same here.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tropical Depression Two



Even Danny looked worse than that.
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Looks more like a Texas storm now?
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Quoting ElConando:


Who Dey?
Dey be da Super Bowl XLIV Champs that's who dey be!!!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Tropical Depression Two



looks good to me
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
TD2

invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren


It's official, 96L is now TD 2. I thought they over did it a little, but we will see what it looks like tomorrow.
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Quoting ElConando:


You had a sub 1005 mb trailer Drain eh? Perhaps you should have called NOAA maybe they would have designated it.


It had a really Long Drain to the Street..and once I thought I saw a HH circling the Trailer in 07,

But they didnt drop any sondes that I saw
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129838
Tropical Depression Two

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Quoting Patrap:
How Bout dem Gamecocks,eh?


Fixed it for ya! LOL
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Just an increase of the winds by 5mph would make this Bonnie.
You could see it at any time. My forecast called for a maximum intensity of 45mph (on my blog), guess I'm going to bump those numbers to 50mph.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
Who DAt !!!!!


Who Dey?
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Quoting reedzone:
There is little convection, if this doesn't blow up tonight, I'm gonna laugh..
You wouldn't be the only one. Unfortunately, I think NHC is seeing some stuff [operationally] that we don't have access to. And to be fair, Reed, what r u seeing to PREVENT further strengthening from occurring? I'm thinking about 95L which only had a few hours free of the front it was attached to yet was able to power up some winds / convection. What's to prevent 96L from powering up?
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Just an increase of the winds by 5mph would make this Bonnie.
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Quoting Patrap:
My old FEMA trailer Drain produced a better swirl and Lower pressure easily..

Wink,wink


You had a sub 1005 mb trailer Drain eh? Perhaps you should have called NOAA maybe they would have designated it.
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I would think the NHC has very good reasoning behind classifying this
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Patrap:
How Bout dem Saints,eh?
Who DAt !!!!!
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Quoting TxMarc71:


Still what?? I AGREE WITH YOU! However, it was the topic of the last blog post and a discussion that has been going for the better of the afternoon. Well befroe you got here...so pleasedont come one here and play yet blog cop with lil man syndrome about something you just caught the tail end of..


Never mind. People are just pouncing on me like I did something wrong. Com'on guys whats with the blog tonight??
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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