Invest 96L: Organizing in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:17 AM GMT on July 08, 2010

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Hi everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff while he's on vacation.

Invest 96L appears to be in the process of developing into a tropical cyclone. The strength and extent of it's thunderstorms is much improved from yesterday (I used CIMMS tropical storm page for my analysis). It's under an upper-level anticyclone which promotes development because it efficiently removes "exhaust" from the thunderstorms. Shear is relatively low (~10 knots), and SST's are adequate for supporting a tropical cyclone (~28 deg. C). In the most recent Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC mentioned that research flights found that upper-level conditions were promising for storm development, so they assess the chances of 96L of becoming a tropical cyclone at 80%. My take is that 96L has an 80% chance of becoming TD #2, and about a 40% chance of being named Bonnie. My reasoning is that 96L has about 24 hours to intensify before interactions with land start interfering with intensification processes. Also, model intensity forecasts are not very supportive of 96L attaining tropical storm force winds. The model track forecast aids have 96L's center of circulation making landfall somewhere between Brownsville and Corpus Christi.

Impacts
The 12Z operational GFS, HWRF, NOGAPS, and 18Z NAM tell a similar story about the surface winds. Near tropical-storm force winds affect the Texas coast from Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. A broad area of 30+ mph winds also affects the Deepwater Horizon oil spill recovery efforts. The 12Z Canadian global model downplays the wind strengths, and the 12Z parallel GFS fails to develop any significant surface wind (> 20 mph). That said, I believe that 96L's greatest impact will be in the form of rain.

The Rio Grande from Del Rio to Laredo is either at major flood stage or is forecast to reach major flood stage in the next 24 hours. This is due to Alex and the moisture he brought to the high terrain of northern Mexico. Nearly all of the forecast models I've looked at forecast 2-3 inches of rain over the Rio Grande Valley in the next 5 days. That will only encourage more flooding. The main forecast problem is how much rain will fall along the Gulf Coast. The parallel GFS and HWRF suggest that 4.5 to 6.5 inches of rain will fall in the Galveston/Houston area in the next 5 days. In my opinion, people living in this area should be prepared for flooding.


Fig. 1. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z parallel GFS. Operational GFS


Fig. 2. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z HWRF.


Fig. 3. 120 hr accumulated precipitation (mm) for 12Z Canadian global model. NOGAPS

Emergency Preparations
People living along the Gulf coast from south of the Rio Grande to the Texas/Louisiana border should review their emergency preparations (hurricane preparations also make for good flood preparations). Jeff has put together a guide to hurricane preparedness with plenty of links for more information.

Next Update
If 96L becomes TD2 or Bonnie, I'll have an update tonight. Shaun Tanner may post something in the morning if that's when the naming occurs. Otherwise, I'll post a tropical update tomorrow afternoon.

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490. IKE
Quoting lickitysplit:
THAT is TD2?

isnt that a little...I dont know...desperate?


LOL.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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Reed...I see a change in you! Taking it with a sense of humor. All of us make predictions that we believe are right...and turn out otherwise.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11274
what a joke...

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

Wheres the cream filling??
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Don't pick on Reed...We all can be wrong.

813. reedzone 3:53 PM EDT on July 07, 2010

I'm out, I will check on 96L and the NON-TROPICAL Low when I get back, take it easy guys, nothing too organized, no red on the next TWO, no TD tonight... Look at reality.


LOL
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Quoting RobertM320:


Its basically exactly what happened with 95L, and they didn't play it safe. The old double standard!


Disagree. 95L was basically a standard open low.. no matter how you call it.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
THAT is TD2?

isnt that a little...I dont know...desperate?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


Crispy is always good!


Think you'll have to share it with a lot of other blogger's, so your not alone.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010

...SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...



SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 93.9W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS TO RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE
TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS ON THURSDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND COASTAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

NNNN
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
After its impressive burst of activity the EPAC has flat-lined. Should stay that way for a while.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072350
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED JUL 7 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


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anyways whodat good night and God Bless.

that goes double for me...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Reed you asked for crow.. do you like it medium rare or crispy?


Crispy is always good!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Don't pick on Reed...We all can be wrong.

813. reedzone 3:53 PM EDT on July 07, 2010

I'm out, I will check on 96L and the NON-TROPICAL Low when I get back, take it easy guys, nothing too organized, no red on the next TWO, no TD tonight... Look at reality.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11274
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


For as long as you have been here...You don't realize how long it takes the NHC to produce the new graphics and such?


I do.
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WE HAVE TD2 WOW LOL

invest_RENUMBER_al962010_al022010.ren
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and from vancleave ms, whooooooooodatttttttttt world champs still have a hard time believing it lol. and ike i agree with you 100% and now youow why i lurk.and why a lot of us old timers just lurk lol. and as far as that troll from brownsville who steady attacks you, he only is on here when something might threaten texas.any wheres far from texas he is not around lol. well God will probably punish me for that because he is probably just a kid lol. anyways whodat good night and God Bless.
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TD/02/L
MARK
23.9N/93.9W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
471. 900MB
Quoting IKE:
0245UTC IR...all convection from the COC is gone NHC.....oh my...



I think they are classifying because ground is already saturated from Alex and they want the warnings up because of potential for flooding. If there was no Alex, I think they would have waited for something more impressive.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Voted most logical post of the night :)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
The NHC bends the official rules when a cyclone is this close to landfall. Here, we discussed 92L being TD or not TD when it was 5000 miles away. This one is a little closer. It's also an overnight situation and we don't have the ability to forecast intensity that we have with track. We don't want people in the area waking up to a 50MPH storm at their door. If there's any chance of that happening, I have no problem with them playing it safe.


Its basically exactly what happened with 95L, and they didn't play it safe. The old double standard!
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Reed you asked for crow.. do you like it medium rare or crispy?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Expected to peak at 45 mph before landfall.
Looks like they agree with me...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
On the front page of the NHC they mentioned TD2 but its not on the map and the cone isn't out yet.
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Quoting MrstormX:


LOL, with convection and winds like this... they won't have to worry. Especially if they can withstand ALEX!


I don't see what's funny about levee breaches. MrstormX, you may know about hurricanes, but evidently you have no clue about levees.
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TD 2 is up on NHC site. Track, Discussion, etc. Is forthcoming.
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Looks like a nice rain event for the Houston/Galveston area. Unfortunately Alex left us plenty of that. But id rather have a rain event than a Hurricane event. :P

Looks like alot of you will be eating crow soon! hahaha
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00
WTNT22 KNHC 080258
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Expected to peak at 45 mph before landfall.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
Quoting ElConando:
Still no magic L.


For as long as you have been here...You don't realize how long it takes the NHC to produce the new graphics and such?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11274
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Forecast is for a peak of 40kts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay I was wrong, TD 2 has arrived.

000
WTNT22 KNHC 080258
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS TO RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 93.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 93.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Cone not out, but this can give you an idea:

TS winds.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
One to Matte and Frame thel.

TYVM
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
We have TD2!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
advisory is out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


My optometrist is taking new patients. Email me if you would like his #.


BWWWWWHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA!!!!!
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In my experience,

Irony ALWAYS win's.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128661
Well..... one positive!

With all the convection gone, we can now plot the center! LOL

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432. It was a joke I thought the "spurious" would give it way.
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Quoting cirrocumulus:
Soon to be TD/Bonnie is already getting stronger. The clouds are wrapping better on infrared. It seems to have really organized well over the warmer waters.


You are probably right. Based on the infared rainbow loop, convection seems to be making its way towards the center.
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Here in Seabrook the water is already higher now in the Bay than it was with Alex.

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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The NHC bends the official rules when a cyclone is this close to landfall. Here, we discussed 92L being TD or not TD when it was 5000 miles away. This one is a little closer. It's also an overnight situation and we don't have the ability to forecast intensity that we have with track. We don't want people in the area waking up to a 50MPH storm at their door. If there's any chance of that happening, I have no problem with them playing it safe.


Voted most logical post of the night :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting KoritheMan:


Are they reconsidering? I know I would. ROFL


They're doing what they did during Dolly.. the renumber came late so I'm sure that we won't see an advisory until 11:30 because they need to issue TS warnings, discussions, ect.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24179
443. 900MB
Thanks for the unexpected sea breeze and backdoor cold front unnamed low swirling off the East Coast.- NYC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022010
0300 UTC THU JUL 08 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND THE GOVERNMENT
OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS TO RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 93.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 93.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 93.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.